The Anatomy of A Silent Crisis The Anatomy of A Silent Crisis

Critical areas of human impact
the first five years compared to non-resource related conflicts. 173 For example, the potential for
armed conflict over water resources is often seen as an imminent threat to security as 263 river
basins are shared by two or more countries, 174 and water supply is fast depleting in many of these
water reservoirs in areas like Middle East and Central Africa. However, past predictions of large
scale water wars have not come to pass and increased cooperation has instead prevailed. 175
Most shared water resources are managed peacefully through cross-border engineering and
diplomacy with increased security collaboration, i.e. UN peacekeeping reform, and resource
sharing agreements like the over 200 water treaties negotiated in the last 50 years. 176 In fact,
many processes associated with global warming, have occurred during a time when the world
has witnessed a dramatic reduction in the frequency and severity of armed conflict. 175 The main
reasons for this include the end of the Cold War; increased international cooperation to prevent
and stem conflict; rapid economic growth in parts of the world once rife with conflict, such as
areas of Eastern Europe; and United Nations peacekeeping operation reforms.
Future conflict or cooperation?
Based on historical precedent, resource sharing and cooperation have been the rule, not the
exception, but what is in store for a future impacted by climate change remains in the hands of
humankind. The number of people vulnerable to the effects of climate change to security is projected
to increase. 171 These people live in countries that are not currently unstable but there are concerns
about their capacity to maintain stability in the face of increased human impact from climate
change, often due to factors such as recent transitions out of dictatorship and war, and economic
development challenges.
Climate change is linked to a range of threats to international peace and security that are
subject to increasing attention and study. Three examples of these are energy, terrorism and
Arctic exploration:
• The majority of global oil reserves and production is located in the regions that are most
vulnerable to climate change: the dry land belt countries from the Sahel through the Middle
East to Central Asia. Large oil-importers, such as the United States, China and Europe, regard
energy insecurity as an important threat and are concerned over potential regional instabilities
caused by climate change. There are fears that conflicts may disrupt supply from energy
producing countries and further intensify global competition for energy resources. 176
• Climate change has also been linked to terrorism because it can serve as a threat multiplier for
instability in the most volatile regions of the world which are vulnerable to civil unrest and the
growth of extremist ideology. 163
• As polar ice caps are melting, new coveted waterways are opening up in the Arctic along with
increased access to new mineral deposits and natural resources. This may ignite international
territorial disputes, exemplified by the outcry after Russia planted a flag in a seabed below the
North Pole in 2007. 164
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