The Anatomy of A Silent Crisis The Anatomy of A Silent Crisis

Case Study
44 Forum 2009: Climate Change – The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis
Morocco — Vulnerable to drought
To some, water-related climate change might sound like an abstract phenomenon, but to
Moroccans its impact is both real and immediate. On the edge of the Sahara, where water has
always been a precious and limited resource, climate change is accentuating the problem, making
water even scarcer due to decreasing rainfall and increasing droughts. Water scarcity not only
threatens food production but also has undercut the government’s progress in increasing access to
safe drinking water and improving sanitation.
On average a major drought has occurred every 11 years for the past 100 years. However, over
the past 30 years, drought frequency, intensity and duration have increased. 132,133 Overall annual
water supply has decreased by 15 percent between 1971 and 2000, particularly in southern and
south-eastern Morocco. By 2020, average annual rainfall is projected to decrease by 4 percent
compared to 2000 levels, a development that could lead to cereal yields falling between 10 percent
in normal years and by half in dry years. 133 Climate change also increases seasonal variability and
extremes leading to more flooding. 134 For example, 44 people died in two separate floods in northern
and central Morocco in November 2008 and February 2009. 135 Approximately 1.0 percent to
1.5 percent of Moroccan GDP is lost annually due to the lack of access to water and sanitation. 136
Between 20-30 percent of the government’s budget is spent on water management projects,
such as irrigation and water pipes and results are impressive: In 2005 56 percent of the population
in rural Morocco had access to safe drinking water as compared to 15 percent in 1995. 136 However,
per capita water availability is expected to be reduced by half in the next 40 years 137 which may
reverse this great progress. 136
Key Sources: World Bank and WHO