The Anatomy of A Silent Crisis The Anatomy of A Silent Crisis

8 Forum 2009: Climate Change – The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis
Intensified research on the human impact of climate change is imperative
The need to continue to press for increased precision in estimates presents a rallying cry for
investment in research on the social implications of climate change. There are particularly three areas
requiring more research:
• The attribution of weather-related disasters to climate change, as no consensus estimate of the
global attribution has yet been made;
• Estimate of economic losses today, as the current models are forward looking;
• Regional analysis, as the understanding of the human impact at regional level is often very limited but
also crucial to guide effective adaptation interventions.
The true human impact is likely to be far more severe than estimated in this report
The estimates in this report are very conservative for four main reasons:
• The climate change models used as the basis for this report’s estimates are considered credible, but
are based on IPCC climate scenarios which have proven to be too conservative. Recent evidence
suggests that important changes in climate are likely to occur more rapidly and be more severe
than the IPCC assessments made nearly two years ago. In many key areas, the climate system is
already moving beyond its traditional patterns. 1 The estimates may also be considered conservative
as potential large scale tipping point events, such as the rapid melting of the Greenland ice sheet and
the shutdown of the Gulf Stream, which would have dire consequences have not been included in
the estimation for this report as they are unlikely to happen within the next 20 years. However, it is
important to note that critical tipping points have already been crossed, including the loss of the Arctic
summer ice in 2007 and the devastating forest fires in Borneo, which may be a combined effect of
deforestation and climate change.
“ Climate change is happening more rapidly than
anyone thought possible. Should humankind stop
worrying about global warming and instead start
panicking? My conclusion is that we are still left
with a fair chance to hold the 2 ° C line, yet the race
between climate dynamics and climate policy will
be a close one.”
Hans Joachim Schellnhuber — Founding Director, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK);
Member, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)