The Indonesian Budget Overview 2010 - Direktorat Jenderal ...

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DAMPAK KRISIS YUNANI TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA | THE IMPACT OF THE GREEK CRISIS ON THE INDONESIAN ECONOMYyang pada gilirannya membawa dampak kepadaperlambatan ekonomi dunia, termasuk Indonesia.Namun demikian, meskipun tidak lepas dari imbaskrisis global, Indonesia merupakan salah satu dari tiganegara yang memiliki kinerja ekonomi terbaik setelahChina dan India. Di tengah-tengah kondisi ekonomiglobal yang belum sepenuhnya pulih, perekonomiannasional mampu berakselerasi dan tetap dapattumbuh positif di tahun 2009 sebesar 4,5 persen.Disaat kondisi perekonomian global mulaimembaik, perhatian dunia kembali mengarah keEropa, dimana Yunani tengah mengalami krisiskepercayaan terhadap kemampuan fiskal Pemerintahuntuk membiayai defisit fiskal. Hal ini terjadi akibatkebijakan fiskal yang sangat ekspansif dengan tingkatdefisit anggaran yang sangat tinggi dan dalamjangka waktu lama, yang menyebabkan krisis utangnegara (sovereign debt crises). Dunia mewaspadaikemungkinan imbas krisis utang dan keuangan diYunani dapat menurunkan kepercayaan pasar danstabilitas keuangan di kawasan Eurozone. Selain itu,kondisi Yunani diperburuk oleh ketidakstabilan politikdan tingginya pengangguran yang pada akhir 2009mencapai 10,3 persen sementara berdasarkan dataterakhir jumlah tersebut meningkat menjadi 11,7persen. Kondisi ini secara tidak langsung berdampakpada stabilitas ekonomi Yunani yang tercermindari meningkatnya CDS (Currency Debt Swap),yield obligation sovereign dan penurunan rating.Tidak menutup kemungkinan, krisis di Yunani akanmenular pada Negara-negara tetangga yang memilikikarakteristik sama yang disebut negara-negara PIIGSavoided the effects of the global crisis, Indonesiawas one of three countries with the best economicperformance after China and India. Amid the globaleconomic condition that has not yet fully recovered,the national economy was able to accelerate and stillable to grow positively in 2009 at 4.5 percent.When the global economic condition began toimprove, the world’s attention was drawn back toEurope, where Greece is experiencing a confidencecrisis in the fiscal ability of the Government tofinance the fiscal deficit. This happened as a resultof a highly expansionary fiscal policy with a very highbudget deficit level for an extended period, whichled to a state debt crisis (sovereign debt crisis). Theworld was wary of the possible impact that the debtand financial crisis in Greece might reduce marketconfidence and financial stability in the Eurozone. Inaddition to this, the Greek condition is exacerbatedby political instability and high unemployment, whichstood at 10.3 percent at the end of 2009, while basedon the latest data that number has increased to 11.7percent. This condition indirectly affects the stabilityof the Greek economy as reflected from the increasedCDS (Currency Debt Swap), yield on sovereignobligations, and impairment rating. It is likely thatthe crisis in Greece will spread to the neighboringcountries that have similar characteristics, namelythose known as PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greeceand Spain) countries. Therefore its impact on the EUregion needs to receive attention. Compared to otherzones that were affected by economic crisis, recovery212THE INDONESIANBUDGET OVERVIEW 2010
DAMPAK KRISIS YUNANI TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA | THE IMPACT OF THE GREEK CRISIS ON THE INDONESIAN ECONOMY(Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain), sehinggadampaknya bagi kawasan UE perlu mendapatperhatian. Dibandingkan kawasan lain yang terkenakrisis ekonomi, pemulihan di kawasan eropa masihlemah. Salah satu penyebabnya adalah dalamnyadampak krisis global terhadap perekonomian dansektor keuangan Eropa. Hal ini dapat dilihat dariperekonomian di eurozone yang dalam tahun 2009mengalami kontraksi sebesar 4,1 persen. Sementarapada tahun 2010, disaat perekonomian mulaipulih dan berakselerasi, eurozone diperkirakanhanya mampu tumbuh 1,7 persen, paling rendahdibandingkan wilayah lain (WEO update, Oktober2010). Gambaran berbagai krisis yang menerpaIndonesia dan dampaknya bagi perekonomian dapatdilihat dalam penjelasan di bawah ini.Krisis Ekonomi dan Dampaknyaterhadap Indonesia Krisis NilaiTukar 1997Krisis yang terjadi pada tahun 1997 dipicu olehdepresiasi mata uang Bath Thailand. Kinerja ekonominasional mengalami kemunduran dan berlanjut dalamskala yang lebih luas dan intensitas yang lebih tinggi.Krisis nilai tukar, krisis perbankan, krisis utang luarnegeri swasta, dan berbagai peristiwa politik dan sosialyang kurang menguntungkan telah menyebabkankrisis ekonomi di Indonesia. Pertumbuhan ekonomitahun 1998 anjlok ke level -13,1% dari 4,7% padatahun 1997, Rupiah terdepresiasi 244%, dari ratarataRp2.909/USD pada tahun 1997 menjadi rata-rataRp10.014/USD pada tahun 1998, Inflasi melonjak kein the Eurozone is still weak. One of its causes is thesevere impact of the global crisis on the economyand financial sector of Europe. This can be seen fromthe economy in Eurozone that, in 2009, experienceda contraction of 4.1 percent. While in 2010, whenthe economy began to recover and accelerate, theEurozone was only able to grow 1.0 percent, thelowest compared to other regions (WEO Update,July 2010). An illustration of various crises that hitIndonesia and their impacts on its economy can beseen in the explanation below.Economic Crises and Their Impactson IndonesiaExchange Rate Crisis in 1997The crisis that occurred in 1997 was triggered by adepreciation of the Thai Bath currency. Nationaleconomic performance worsened and it continuedon a broader scale and with higher intensity. Theexchange rate crisis, banking crisis, private foreigndebt crisis, and various distressed political and socialoccurrences caused an economic crisis in Indonesia.Economic growth in 1998 fell as low as -13.1%,down from 4.7% in 1997. The Rupiah depreciatedby 244%, from an average Rp2,909/USD in 1997 toan average Rp10,014/USD in 1998. Inflation soaredto a rate of 77.6% (y-o-y) in 1998, up from 11.1%THE INDONESIANBUDGET OVERVIEW 2010213
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6. Dampak Krisis Yunani TerhadAp AP
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SAMBUTANDIREKTUR JENDERAL ANGGARANR
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SAMBUTAN DIREKTUR JENDERAL ANGGARAN
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RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIFEXECUTIVE SUMMAR
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RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIF | EXECUTIVE SUM
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RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIF | EXECUTIVE SUM
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BABCAPTER1RENCANA PEMBANGUNAN JANGK
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RENCANA PEMBANGUNAN JANGKA MENENGAH
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ANGGARAN PENDAPATAN DAN BELANJA NEG
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SISTEM PENGANGGARAN | THE BUDGETING
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134THE INDONESIANBUDGET OVERVIEW 20
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KEBIJAKAN PEMBATASAN SUBSIDI BAHAN
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BUDGET SECTIONS AND PROGRAMSPERSONN
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