River and stream water quality and ecology - Greater Wellington ...
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4.2 Temporal trends<br />
<strong>River</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>stream</strong> <strong>water</strong> <strong>quality</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>ecology</strong> in the <strong>Wellington</strong> region: State <strong>and</strong> trends<br />
4.2.1 Approach to analysis<br />
A selection of 14 <strong>water</strong> <strong>quality</strong> variables were analysed for temporal trends,<br />
utilising RSoE monitoring data collected monthly over the period July 2006 to<br />
June 2011. An initial assessment examined trends between September 2003<br />
<strong>and</strong> June 2010 (see Ballantine & Booker 2011); the September 2003 start date<br />
represented a logical follow-on from the 1997 to 2003 trend period used by<br />
Milne <strong>and</strong> Perrie (2005) in the last river <strong>and</strong> <strong>stream</strong> SoE technical report.<br />
However, a change in <strong>Greater</strong> <strong>Wellington</strong>’s analytical laboratory (including<br />
detection limits for some variables) in July 2006 was deemed to have produced<br />
‘step changes’ in some <strong>water</strong> <strong>quality</strong> variables (Ballantine & Booker 2011) 17 ,<br />
confounding trend assessments. As a result, the data record for the five years<br />
ending June 2011 was used for temporal trend analysis in this report.<br />
Following methodology outlined in Ballantine <strong>and</strong> Booker (2011), temporal<br />
trends were analysed using the Seasonal Kendall trend test in NIWA’s Time<br />
Trends software (Version 3.20). Trend analysis was undertaken on both raw<br />
data <strong>and</strong> – for the 44 sites where flow values or estimates were available (see<br />
Appendix 4) – flow-adjusted data. Seasonal Kendall trend tests were<br />
undertaken using 12 ‘seasons’ (ie, reflecting monthly <strong>water</strong> <strong>quality</strong> sampling)<br />
<strong>and</strong> flow-adjustment was performed in the Time Trends software using<br />
LOWESS (Locally Weighted Scatterplot Smoothing) with a 30% span.<br />
Prior to analysis, the nutrient data sets, which often contain a high proportion<br />
of censored values (ie, concentrations reported as below the analytical<br />
detection limit), were processed as follows:<br />
If a data set contained less than 10% censored data, the censored values<br />
were halved;<br />
For data sets containing between 10% <strong>and</strong> 80% censored data, censored<br />
values were estimated using Regression on Order Statistics (ROS); <strong>and</strong><br />
For data sets with greater than 80% censored data, trend analysis was not<br />
undertaken due to the high level of uncertainty present in the dataset.<br />
For the remaining variables (eg, TOC <strong>and</strong> E. coli) censored values typically<br />
comprised well below 10% of the values in the data set for each site (in all<br />
cases they were below 17%) <strong>and</strong> the censored data were simply halved before<br />
undertaking trend analysis.<br />
While estimation of censored data using ROS is considered the best approach<br />
for dealing with censored data when undertaking <strong>water</strong> <strong>quality</strong> trend analysis<br />
(Ballantine & Booker 2011), it is important to note that as the proportion of<br />
censored data increases so too does any associated error. Ballantine <strong>and</strong> Booker<br />
(2011) advise that professional judgement is exercised when interpreting trend<br />
results that contain higher proportions of censored values. For this reason, only<br />
results for data sets that contained no more than 30% censored values are<br />
17 This is despite analytical methods remaining constant for many variables.<br />
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