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DEFORESTATION AROUND THE WORLD - India Environment Portal

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112<br />

Deforestation Around the World<br />

slip lower boundary condition, the creeping rate usually is imperceptible (below 53 m in<br />

Fig.5) before reaching the granular layer.<br />

Fig. 5. The observed (markers) and modeled (lines with same style) displacement-time<br />

curves for BH8.<br />

The absence of vegetative root strength binding soils increases susceptibility to sliding in<br />

loose soil on steep slopes during intense rainstorms (Dietrich and Perron 2006). Extra<br />

biomass loading also may contribute to slope instability during wet seasons. Ground surface<br />

biomass loading information for YC, because of its limited extent of only ~20 km 2, was<br />

collected by a geological survey team following a request by the first author.<br />

Using mean annual soil moisture conditions (obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalyses,<br />

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.surfacefluxes.html), a<br />

creeping rate is simulated using the SEGMENT model near BH8 of 17, 17.2, 16.2, 8.5, 5.2 and<br />

3.1 mm/yr respectively at 1.5, 3, 10, 30, 40 and 45 m depths, agreeing well with the observed<br />

measurements. The root mean squared error, when compared with the 108 measurement<br />

data grids, is overestimated by only 0.42 mm/year, well within instrumental error range.<br />

The depth of the sliding surface (49 m at this location) is accurately delineated. Sliding will<br />

eventually accelerate along this plane of weakness, which is composed of highly fractured<br />

sandy shale. Interestingly, under natural conditions, the creeping speed curve is not a<br />

simple dilatant profile: there are local minima/maxima. The faster creeping locations near

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