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Understanding Consumer Reactions to Assortment Unavailability

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therefore might question the existence of a long-run negative sales effect of an assortment<br />

reduction.<br />

To summarize our <strong>to</strong>tal discussion of these expected sales effects, we offer Figure 4.1,<br />

which clearly shows the expected sales effect among different groups of category buyers.<br />

Figure 4.1: Expected sales effects of an assortment reduction among different groups of<br />

buyers<br />

GROUP OF<br />

CUSTOMERS<br />

Former Buyers<br />

Nondelisted Items<br />

Former Buyers<br />

Nondelisted Items<br />

New<br />

Buyers<br />

4.4 Research methodology<br />

4.4.1 Data<br />

Postponement<br />

Item Switch<br />

S<strong>to</strong>re Switch<br />

BEHAVIOR EXPECTED EFFECT<br />

We analyze cus<strong>to</strong>mer loyalty card data <strong>to</strong> measure the effect of the assortment reduction on<br />

category sales. Data on household purchases is available for two s<strong>to</strong>res in which the assortment<br />

reduction actually <strong>to</strong>ok place and two control s<strong>to</strong>res in which the assortment remained<br />

unchanged. These control s<strong>to</strong>res are essential <strong>to</strong> distinguish between the effects of the delisting<br />

and other exogenous changes in sales. The selected s<strong>to</strong>res are geographically quite far apart, so it<br />

is unlikely that a household will visit more than one s<strong>to</strong>re in our sample.<br />

99<br />

Item<br />

Switch<br />

S<strong>to</strong>re<br />

Switch<br />

No Sales Effect<br />

Initial Negative Sales<br />

Effect,<br />

Initial Negative Sales<br />

Effect,<br />

No Sales Effect<br />

Negative Sales Effect<br />

Positive Sales Effect

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