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Understanding Consumer Reactions to Assortment Unavailability

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2.1 Introduction<br />

Out-of-s<strong>to</strong>ck (OOS) is a regular phenomenon for grocery shoppers. The percentages of OOS<br />

occurrences regularly vary among 5% (The Netherlands), 7% (France), and 8% (United States)<br />

of the <strong>to</strong>tal SKU level of supermarkets (Andersen Consulting 1996; Foodmagazine 1999; Roland<br />

Berger Strategy Consultants 2002). This rather common temporary unavailability of items rates<br />

high on shoppers’ irritation lists and causes a lower level of consumer satisfaction (CBL 2000;<br />

Fitzsimons 2000). An OOS occurrence may have a direct impact on a retailer’s financial<br />

outcome, because it leads <strong>to</strong> a loss of category sales if consumers decide <strong>to</strong> switch s<strong>to</strong>res or<br />

cancel their purchases completely. If consumers decide <strong>to</strong> switch s<strong>to</strong>res, a loss of sales might<br />

result in a loss of sales in other categories as well. The resulting gross margin losses for retailers<br />

resulting from OOS are estimated <strong>to</strong> lie between $7 and $12 billion per year in the United States<br />

(Andersen Consulting 1996).<br />

In response, some efficient consumer response (ECR) projects have focused on<br />

developing methods <strong>to</strong> improve the supply chain. According <strong>to</strong> Vergin and Barr (1999), the<br />

application of continuous replenishment planning can decrease OOS levels by 55%. Although<br />

some ECR projects have showed encouraging decreases in OOS levels, a substantial decrease of<br />

OOS levels has not yet been observed in practice (EFMI 2000). Due <strong>to</strong> extensions in assortments<br />

and because shelf space is often fixed in the short and mid-terms, OOS occurrences likely will<br />

remain regular phenomena for shoppers. Therefore, retailers need additional insights in<strong>to</strong> the<br />

effects of OOS on consumer behavior, particularly regarding which types of OOS situations lead<br />

<strong>to</strong> high levels of s<strong>to</strong>re switching, postponement or cancellation of purchases. Another important<br />

issue for retailers pertains <strong>to</strong> the product groups and brands for which OOS occurrences result in<br />

substantial sales losses.<br />

For brand manufacturers, OOS is important as well, because high OOS levels for a<br />

specific brand may lead <strong>to</strong> losses in brand sales and decreased brand loyalty. In addition <strong>to</strong> the<br />

important financial consequences of OOS, understanding consumers’ OOS responses improves<br />

manufacturers’ insight in<strong>to</strong> the importance of distribution and shelf space allocation. In this<br />

respect, consumer OOS reactions may provide valuable information about the possible effects of<br />

OOS when an item or a brand is permanently delisted (Campo, Gijsbrechts, and Nisol 2004).<br />

In marketing literature, there has been substantial interest in the <strong>to</strong>pic of consumer<br />

reaction <strong>to</strong> OOS since the 1960s (Peckham 1963). The majority of early studies on OOS mainly<br />

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