English - Convention on Biological Diversity

COUNTRY STUDY FOR BIODIVERSITY OF THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
3.6.6. Climate change
On the basis of an evaluation of the impacts of climatic changes on biodiversity, the
future horizontal and vertical distribution of plant and animal species are expected to
change, (i.e., migration toward the north and/or migration to higher elevations). Such
changes will particularly affect the relict plant and animal species living in high
mountain zones.
According to the results presented by the MoEPP in the First National Report on
Climate Changes, the areas most sensitive to climatic changes are the refugial zones:
Taor Gorge; Treska River gorge; Crna River, including the gorges of the Raets and
Blashnitsa Rivers; Jama; Mavrovo-Radika; Pelister; Ohrid-Prespa and Nidze-Kozhuf.
Within these zones, many refugial phytocenoses are present which would be endangered
by temperature increases and by the accompanying decreases or distributional changes
in precipitation.
With an increase in temperature of 3.2ºC (IS92a model) over the next 100 years,
even the highest peaks would suffer higher mean annual temperatures on a par with the
current temperatures in the higher subalpine zones (i.e., the zones of species distribution
would migrate upward by 500 m), so that alpine pastures would be expected to disappear
completely on some mountains.
In contrast to the alpine pastures, the thermophilic communities, such as the
pseudomaquis (a type of Mediterranian shrubland), would expand their ranges into
northern regions and higher altitudes. New thermophilic communities would be expected
to appear, such as Mediterranean grass communities. Other climate-zonal communities
would experience changes in their areal and elevational distributions, depending on the
rate of advancement of the climatic changes.
3.6.7. Natural Disasters
Natural disasters do occur, but only infrequently and of minor intensity. Macedonia
is a seismic area, however, and a large part of its territory is arid and semiarid and there
are frequent landslides, avalanches etc.
Droughts are frequent natural disasters. In addition to the droughts of short duration
which are characteristic for a major portion of the country, there are also extended
periodic droughts, which cause great economic hardships for agriculture, as well as
serious damage to the natural inland mesophilic ecosystems. Examples of this include
reduction in the growth rates of forests, defoliation and increased susceptibility to
parasites and other pests, the desiccation of marsh ecosystems, disturbances to the
hydrology of aquatic ecosystems (Doyran and Prespa lakes) etc.
Forest fires are usually caused by human activities; however, due to their
dramatically increased frequency during periods of drought, they can be listed as natural
disasters. They are frequent in the sub-Mediterranean and hot continental areas, where
communities of scrub forests and Hornbeam important from the aspect of biodiversity
develop.
Landslides are frequent occurrances, but take place in a much more localised area
than drought or fire. These are phenomena where millions of cubic metres of soil begin
to suddenly move, destroying large agricultural areas (Kavadartsi) and forests (Dolna
River near the village of Bitushe). In the area of Kavadartsi (near the village of Vatasha),
a large landslide thirty years ago closed the gorge of the Luda Mara River, forming a
reservoir which is currently being used for irrigation.
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