FM 5-0, The Operations Process - Federation of American Scientists

Chapter 6
6-48. Some human judgment is inevitably a factor even when dealing with quantitative indicators.
Choosing which quantitative indicators to collect requires significant human judgment prior to collection.
During collection the choice of sources, methods, and standards for observing and reporting the events
require judgment. After collection, the commander or staff decides whether to use the number as an
indicator in a formal assessment plan and for which MOEs or MOPs.
6-49. Quantitative indicators prove less biased than qualitative indicators. In general, numbers based on
observations are impartial (assuming that the events in question were observed and reported accurately).
Often, however, these indicators are less readily available than qualitative indicators and more difficult to
select correctly. This is because the judgment aspect of which indicators validly inform the MOE is already
factored into qualitative indicators to a degree. Experts factor in all considerations they believe are relevant
to answering questions. However, this does not occur inherently with quantitative indicators. The
information in quantitative indicators is less refined and requires greater judgment to handle appropriately
than information in qualitative indicators.
6-50. Public opinion polling can be easily miscategorized. It often provides an important source of
information in prolonged stability operations. Results of a rigorously collected and statistically valid public
opinion poll are quantitative, not qualitative. Polls take a mathematically rigorous approach to answering
the question of what people really think; they do not offer opinions on whether the people are correct.
6-51. While the results of scientifically conducted polls are quantitative, human judgment is involved in
designing a poll. Decisions must be made on what questions to ask, how to word the questions, how to
translate the questions, how to select the sample, how to choose interviewers, what training to give
interviewers, and what mathematical techniques to use for getting a sample of the population.
Qualitative
6-52. In the context of assessment, a qualitative indicator is an opinion-based (subjective) item of
information that provides insight into a MOE or MOP. A high degree of human judgment is involved when
collecting qualitative indicators. Qualitative indicators are themselves opinions, not just observed opinions
of others such as polls. For example, the division commander estimates the effectiveness of the host-nation
forces on a scale of 1 to 5. Sources of qualitative indicators include subject matter experts’ opinions and
judgments as well as subordinate commanders’ summaries of the situation.
6-53. Qualitative indicators can account for real-world complexities that cannot be feasibly measured using
quantitative indicators. Qualitative indicators are also more readily available; commanders often have
access to staff principals and other subject matter experts from whom to garner opinions. In some cases, the
only available indicator for a particular MOE or MOP is an expert opinion. For example, determining
changes in the size and number of enemy sanctuaries may prove impossible without asking local
commanders. Without large amounts of objective data, subjective indicators can be used to give a relatively
informed picture. However, subjective measures have a higher risk of bias. Human opinion is capable of
spectacular insight but also vulnerable to hidden assumptions that may prove false.
6-54. Differentiating between quantitative and qualitative indicators is useful but signifies a major
tendency rather than a sharp distinction in practice. Quantitative indicators often require a degree of
judgment in their collection. For example, determining the number of mortar attacks in a given area over a
given period requires judgment in categorizing attacks as mortar attacks. A different delivery system could
have been used, or an improvised explosive device could have been mistaken for a mortar attack. The
attack could also have landed on a boundary, requiring a decision on whether to count it. Similarly,
qualitative indicators always have some basis in observed and counted events. The same indicator may be
quantitative or qualitative depending on the collection mechanism. For example, the indicator may measure
a change in market activity for village X. If a Soldier observes and tracks the number of exchanges, then
the indicator is quantitative. If the battalion commander answers that question in a mandated monthly
report based on a gut feel, then the indicator is qualitative.
ASSESSMENT INCORPORATES FORMAL AND INFORMAL METHODS
6-55. Assessment may be formal or informal; the appropriate level of formality depends entirely on the
situation. As part of their planning guidance, commanders address the level of detail they desire for
6-8 FM 5-0 26 March 2010