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How to Kill a Black Swan Remy Briand and David Owyong ...

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News<br />

CVC To Buy iShares …<br />

Or Maybe Not<br />

Luxembourg-based CVC Capital<br />

Partners agreed <strong>to</strong> buy Barclays Global<br />

Inves<strong>to</strong>rs’ iShares exchange-traded fund<br />

unit for $4.4 billion in April. The deal<br />

did not include iShares’ share-lending<br />

business, an extremely lucrative segment<br />

of the iShares operation.<br />

Under the terms of the CVC deal,<br />

Barclays was <strong>to</strong> provide the bulk of the<br />

financing, providing loans on reasonably<br />

favorable terms for $3.1 billion of<br />

the $4.4 billion deal.<br />

CVC Capital is a private equity firm<br />

with diversified interests; the iShares<br />

purchase was <strong>to</strong> be its first foray in<strong>to</strong><br />

the financial sec<strong>to</strong>r.<br />

But no sooner had the ink dried on the<br />

deal documents than rumors of alternate<br />

bidders emerged. As part of the deal,<br />

Barclays had a 45-day window <strong>to</strong> look for<br />

alternative <strong>and</strong> superior offers. If it found<br />

one, it would have <strong>to</strong> pay a $175 million<br />

breakup fee <strong>to</strong> CVC Capital.<br />

As this issue of the Journal of Indexes<br />

goes <strong>to</strong> press, reports are circulating<br />

that firms such as <strong>Black</strong> Rock Capital<br />

may be in the running. <strong>Black</strong> Rock is<br />

said <strong>to</strong> be entertaining a $10 billion bid<br />

that would encompass not just iShares,<br />

but the broader BGI business. Also mentioned<br />

as potential bidders are private<br />

equity firms Apax Partners, Hellman &<br />

Friedman <strong>and</strong> BC Partners.<br />

Management at Barclays owns up <strong>to</strong><br />

10 percent of iShares, <strong>and</strong> will be paid a<br />

cash dividend based on its stakes in the<br />

deal. Barclays CEO Robert Diamond Jr. is<br />

expected <strong>to</strong> earn upward of $6.9 million<br />

from the deal; he did not participate in the<br />

consideration of the iShares transaction.<br />

Dow Jones Rebr<strong>and</strong>s<br />

Two Index Families<br />

This spring saw the rebr<strong>and</strong>ing of two<br />

major Dow Jones indexes product lines.<br />

Perhaps most importantly, the index<br />

provider’s agreement with Wilshire<br />

Associates was terminated on March<br />

31. For several years, the two index<br />

providers jointly marketed an index<br />

family that included the rebr<strong>and</strong>ed version<br />

of the well-known Wilshire 5000<br />

Index, which represents nearly all the<br />

listed s<strong>to</strong>cks in the U.S.<br />

Both parties have returned <strong>to</strong> calculating<br />

their own indexes, with the Dow<br />

Jones Wilshire index family rebr<strong>and</strong>ed as<br />

the Dow Jones Total S<strong>to</strong>ck Market index<br />

family <strong>and</strong> Wilshire Associates’ indexes<br />

once again marketed under its own br<strong>and</strong><br />

name. The jointly marketed indexes were<br />

identical as of April 1, but will likely<br />

diverge going forward as the two different<br />

providers interpret rules separately<br />

<strong>and</strong> modify the methodologies over time,<br />

a Wilshire respresentative said.<br />

More recently, the Dow Jones – AIG<br />

Commodity Index changed its name <strong>to</strong><br />

the Dow Jones – UBS Commodity Index<br />

as of May 7, following the acquisition of<br />

some of AIG’s assets by UBS.<br />

The index’s methodology remains<br />

exactly the same, but new suggested<br />

ticker symbols reflecting the name<br />

change have been generated for the<br />

main index <strong>and</strong> its subindexes. Dow<br />

Jones is publishing parallel sets of indexes<br />

under the new <strong>and</strong> old ticker symbols<br />

for 30 days before phasing out the old<br />

symbols; the index values for both sets<br />

of symbols are exactly the same.<br />

Grim Results For<br />

Active Managers In 2008<br />

More than 70 percent of all actively<br />

managed U.S. equity mutual funds<br />

trailed their benchmarks for the five<br />

years ending 2008, according <strong>to</strong> the<br />

2008 St<strong>and</strong>ard & Poor’s Index Versus<br />

Active Fund Scorecard (SPIVA).<br />

The report shows that 71.9 percent of<br />

actively managed large-cap funds trailed<br />

the S&P 500; 75.9 percent of actively<br />

managed mid-cap funds trailed the S&P<br />

MidCap 400; <strong>and</strong> a stunning 85.5 percent<br />

of actively managed small-cap funds<br />

trailed the S&P SmallCap 600.<br />

S&P says the results were consistent<br />

with the previous five-year cycle, from<br />

1999 <strong>to</strong> 2003.<br />

Actively managed funds also did<br />

poorly over the one-year period: 54<br />

percent of large-cap funds trailed the<br />

S&P 500; 75 percent of mid-cap funds<br />

trailed the S&P MidCap 400; <strong>and</strong> 84<br />

percent of small-cap funds trailed the<br />

S&P SmallCap 600.<br />

The single worst category for<br />

active managers in 2008 was small-cap<br />

growth, where a dizzying 96 percent<br />

of managers trailed their benchmark.<br />

The only bright spot was large-cap<br />

value funds, which trounced the S&P<br />

500 Value Index in 2008, with 78 percent<br />

of actively managed funds beating<br />

their benchmark.<br />

But the s<strong>to</strong>ry turns dismal again for<br />

active managers of international funds.<br />

Sixty-three percent of global funds<br />

trailed the S&P Global 1200 on a fiveyear<br />

basis; 84 percent of international<br />

funds trailed the S&P 700; 59 percent of<br />

international small-cap funds trailed the<br />

S&P Developed Ex-US Small-Cap; <strong>and</strong><br />

90 percent of emerging market funds<br />

trailed the S&P/IFCI Composite.<br />

Fixed income is no better. Over five<br />

years, the percentage of fixed-income<br />

funds that outperformed their indexes in<br />

all st<strong>and</strong>ard domestic categories is less<br />

than 10 percent. The only exceptions<br />

are in high yield, where 48 percent of<br />

funds beat their benchmark; global fixed<br />

income, where 21 percent beat their<br />

benchmark; <strong>and</strong> emerging markets debt,<br />

where 38 percent beat their benchmark.<br />

All results are adjusted for survivorship<br />

bias.<br />

MacroMarkets Closes Oil Fund,<br />

Cancels Housing IPO<br />

MacroMarkets LLC has been<br />

encountering some problems with its<br />

MacroShares exchange-traded products.<br />

The firm has a patented meth-<br />

44<br />

July/August 2009

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