Titan Europe 2007-1 (NHP) Limited - Irish Stock Exchange

Titan Europe 2007-1 (NHP) Limited Collateral and Structural Term Sheet 1 st May 2007
Forecast Numbers of Ageing People and Demand for Care Home Beds
The trend in the UK demographic profile has been towards a more elderly population. King Sturge LLP report that the percentage of the
UK population aged 65 and over has increased from 13% to 16% between 1971 and mid-2005. A similar trend has been observed in
respect of the population aged 85 and over. They project an upward trend due to:
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General improvement in life expectancy;
Post-World War I “baby boomer” generation reaching the age of 85 and over;
A significant section of the population, born post-World War I, reaching old age.
UK Population over the age of 65 (1901-2071)
Source: Laing and Buisson UK Market Survey 2006
King Sturge LLP has projected the proportion of the UK’s population aged 85 and over to be circa 5 million (7.1% of the total
population) by 2071 and therefore the ageing population trend is predicted to have implications for the care home industry as a whole.
Over recent years, the demand for care home beds has witnessed a downward trend. King Sturge LLP report that the main reasons for
this trend are (i) constraints on local authority budgets resulting in a policy of placing the elderly in less costly residential settings than
nursing care; (ii) the desire of older people to remain in their own homes as long as possible, and (iii) the government’s preference for
community-based care over residential care. However, Laing and Buisson project that demand across the UK may increase from
421,000 occupied places in 2006 to 445,000 by 2016, mostly due to a reduced supply of public sector care homes.
Volume of Demand and Total Capacity (1990-2006)
Source: Laing and Buisson UK Market Survey 2006
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