The future of the Euro-Mediterannean security dialogue

should be, one day, able to act autonomously and independently from the United States, patterns
and mechanisms of transatlantic co-operation will change dramatically. Again, two possible
outcomes may be pointed out.
The worst case scenario would lead to a break-up of the existing structure. ESDI, which in
such a scenario would be under command and control of the European Council, could “accelerate
an American retreat from Europe” 5 that would render NATO somewhat superfluous. Then
NATO’ s Mediterranean Dialogue would consequently disappear. The EU would thus be able to
offer its EMP Partners a real military dimension within the framework of the Barcelona process
and beyond. The US would continue nonetheless to exert its influence in the Mediterranean,
especially on the eastern shore. Unilateral action would increase and conflict between the US and
the EU over Mediterranean issues might occur. The Mediterranean region, especially the eastern
Mediterranean would become an area of competition and maybe conflict between the former
allies. In such a scenario, if at all, only a division of labour, in the geographical sense, could be
achieved.
Far from this undesirable scenario, constructive relationships between the EU and NATO
should be established. The development of a common security and defence policy by the EU
should not imply a decoupling within NATO. A balanced partnership in transatlantic relations
also represents better coordination and cooperation between the EMP and NATO’s
Mediterranean Dialogue.
5 An U.S. official quoted in IHT, 16.12.1999.
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