Casestudie Breakdown prediction Contell PILOT - Transumo

• Critical values
• Pre-warning time
• Prediction probability
Hence the presented approach allows predefinitions like for instance: “If the
temperature will reach 10°C within the next 5 minutes with a probability of 90 percent,
then send a trigger signal.”
4.4 Review of Current State of Research
The current chapter introduced different approaches from similar monitoring settings.
Section 4.1 denoted the missing research activity within the setting of sensor based
temperature monitoring. Section 4.2 pointed out the similarity to machinery condition
monitoring. Basic methods like a comparison of current behavior to rated values can
be found in both approaches. In addition to that, the machinery condition monitoring
also uses knowledge driven approaches like artificial neural networks, which are not
available within the setting of sensor based temperature monitoring. Hence, a test on
applicability of this general idea has to be made. 38
Section 4.3 introduced approaches from the setting of measurement data analysis.
Basic approaches like descriptive statistical measures, time series analysis and
regression also have to be tested on applicability. 39
The introduced generalized approach from section 4.3.2 promises to be applicable to
all kinds of measurement data without any knowledge of the underlying setting.
Therefore, this approach is now reviewed according to the requirements analysis
from section 2.5.
First step was the elimination of outliers. This was based on the assumption that
outliers are evoked by technical disturbances, which have to be ignored. An
appliance to sensor based temperature monitoring could lead to an ignorance of high
temperature peaks that are actually caused by door openings. But even if a change
in trend is recognized, a delay of at least two time intervals will be caused. Hence,
the approach is not able to identify upcoming failures as soon as they are
recognizable.
38 See chapter 5.9.3 for details
39 See sections 5.3, 5.4 and 5.5 for details
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