Casestudie Breakdown prediction Contell PILOT - Transumo

this example. Hence, nighttime data of this chosen dataset is free from external user
influences.
6.2.1 Detection of Changes in Behavior by Using Descriptive Statistics
Section 5.10.1 introduced a promising way of recognizing changes in behavior by just
comparing basic descriptive statistical measures. This section will now present
calculated results for the selected dataset. As described in section 5.10.1, the
suggested notification service compares succeeding daily daytime and nighttime
values and reports irregular ones. This irregularity was defined as delta times the
mean change. To obtain a better feeling for this delta, the calculated results are first
of all presented in graphical form. Afterwards, two different deltas are chosen and
their corresponding notifications are calculated. 80
The following figures 6-3 to 6-10 contain the calculated results of daily day- and
nighttime values of the promising basic measurements. 81 To allow an easy
comparison of daytime and nighttime values, they are plotted with the same scale.
The results of the also suggested whole day analysis are not pictured because they
do not differ significantly from the daytime results.
The daytime maximum values are very irregular. In fact, they are almost comparable
to the general temperature overview. But eye-catching is a very low maximum value
at the end of November. The nighttime values offer a much clearer overview of the
system’s general behavior due to the missing of external user influences. But again,
the graph contains the eye-catching low temperature. As this exceptional value is
also recognizable at nighttime, it should be reported to a person in charge. A closer
look at Figure 6-2 discovers a real change of cooling behavior within that time span
of nearly two days, so that this notification should be done.
Beside this exceptional value the maximum nighttime values are faced with another
significant change at the beginning of January. Eye-catching is, furthermore, the
behavior at the end of January. Within very few days, the daily nighttime maximums
increased about half a degree and nearly remained on that level for the rest of the
monitoring time. This significant step also indicates a change in cooling behavior and
should be notified.
80 See Table 6-2 for details
81 See section 5.10.1 for details
90