Casestudie Breakdown prediction Contell PILOT - Transumo

Daytime and nighttime minimum values are very similar to each other. The reason for
this similarity is based on the kind of external user influences. Most influences are
caused by door openings or the insertion of warm samples, so that the minimum
temperature remains uninfluenced. 82
The calculation of daily minimum values also contains several remarkable changes.
First of all, daytime and nighttime values contain an exceptional change in minimum
temperature of more than 1°C at the end of September. Regular changes from one
day to another are normally at most 0.2°C, so that this change should be notified. In
fact, this change in minimum temperature indicates the already introduced global
minimum temperature that occurred on September, 22 nd .
In addition to that, some other remarkable changes do exist. The first one is a rise in
minimum temperature about one week, before the global minimum occurs. Moreover,
the already mentioned change at the end of November is also eye-catching again. As
maximum as well as minimum temperatures are remarkably different, a change of
general temperature level must have taken place. The last eye-catching factor is that
the calculated minimum values contain a general trend.
The mean daytime and nighttime values appear to be very similar at first sight. But a
closer look discovers some significant higher peaks in daytime data, which are not
recognizable at nighttime. The reason for these peaks cannot be obtained for sure,
but presumably they are caused again by external user influences like door
openings.
But even the uninfluenced nighttime values are faced with higher variations than the
already reviewed minimum and maximum temperatures. This complicates the
identification of significant changes. But again the changes from the end of
September and November are recognizable. Moreover, the mean values also contain
the mentioned trend.
The last promising measure is the standard deviation. Again, the daytime values
contain several high peaks that have to be traced back on door openings. By
contrast, the graph of the standard deviation at nighttime indicates the changes from
the end of September and November more clearly, than any other introduced
measure.
82 See section 2.4.2 for details
92