Comprehensive Risk Assessment for Natural Hazards - Planat

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Comprehensive risk assessment for natural hazards 47 Table 5.1 — Earthquakes with 1 000 or more deaths from 1900 to 1990 (Source: NEIC, 1990) Magnitude Date Location Coordinates Deaths Richter scale Comments 16/12/1902 Turkestan 40.8 N 72.6 E 4 500 6.4 04/04/1905 India, Kangra 33.0 N 76.0 E 19 000 8.6 08/09/1905 Italy, Calabria 39.4 N 16.4 E 2 500 7.9 31/01/1906 Colombia 1 N 81 5 W 1 000 8.9 17/03/1906 Formosa — — 1 300 7.1 17/08/1906 Chile, Santiago 33 S 72 W 20 000 8.6 14/01/1907 Jamaica 18.2 N 76.7 W 1 600 6.5 21/10/1907 Central Asia 38 N 69 E 12 000 8.1 28/12/1908 Italy, Messina 38 N 15.5 E > 70 000 7.5 Death from earthquake and tsunami 09/08/1912 Marmara Sea 40.5 N 27 E 1 950 7.8 13/01/1915 Italy, Avezzano 42 N 13.5 E 29 980 7.5 16/12/1920 China, Gansu 35.8 N 105.7 E 200 000 8.6 Major fractures, landslides 01/09/1923 Japan, Kwanto 35.0 N 139.5 E 143 000 8.3 Great Tokyo fire 16/03/1925 China, Yunnan 25.5 N 100.3 E 5 000 7.1 07/03/1927 Japan, Tango 35.8 N 134.8 E 3 020 7.9 22/05/1927 China, Xining 36.8 N 102.8 E 200 000 8.3 Large fractures 01/05/1929 Islamic Republic of Iran 38 N 58 E 3 300 7.4 23/07/1930 Italy 41.1 N 15.4 E 1 430 6.5 25/12/1932 China, Gansu 39.7 N 97.0 E 70 000 7.6 02/03/1933 Japan, Sanriku 39.0 N 143.0 E 2 990 8.9 15/01/1934 Bihar-Nepal 26.6 N 86.8 E 10 700 8.4 20/04/1935 Formosa 24.0 N 121.0 E 3 280 7.1 30/05/1935 Pakistan, Quetta 29.6 N 66.5 E > 30 000 7.5 Quetta almost completely destroyed 25/01/1939 Chile, Chillan 36.2 S 72.2 W 28 000 8.3 26/12/1939 Turkey, Erzincan 39.6 N 38 E 30 000 8.0 10/09/1943 Japan, Tottori 35.6 N 134.2 E 1 190 7.4 07/12/1944 Japan, Tonankai 33.7 N 136.2 E 1 000 8.3 12/01/1945 Japan, Mikawa 34.8 N 137.0 E 1 900 7.1 31/05/1946 Turkey 39.5 N 41.5 E 1 300 6.0 10/11/1946 Peru, Ancash 8.3 S 77.8 W 1 400 7.3 Landslides, great destruction 20/12/1946 Japan, Tonankai 32.5 N 134.5 E 1 330 8.4 28/06/1948 Japan, Fukui 36.1 N 136.2 E 5 390 7.3 05/08/1949 Ecuador, Ambato 1.2 S 78.5 E 6 000 6.8 Large landslides, topographical changes 15/08/1950 Assam, Tibet 28.7 N 96.6 E 1 530 8.7 Great topographical changes, landslides, floods 09/09/1954 Algeria 36 N 1.6 E 1 250 6.8 02/07/1957 Islamic Republic of Iran 36.2 N 52.7 E 1 200 7.4 13/12/1957 Islamic Republic of Iran 34.4 N 47.6 E 1 130 7.3 29/02/1960 Morocco, Agadir 30 N 9 W > 10 000 5.9 Occurred at shallow depth 22/05/1960 Chile 39.5 S 74.5 W > 4 000 9.5 Tsunami, volcanic activity, floods 01/09/1962 Islamic Republic of Iran, Qazvin 35.6 N 49.9 E 12 230 7.3 26/07/1963 Yugoslavia, Skopje 42.1 N 21.4 E 1 100 6.0 Occurred at shallow depth 19/08/1966 Turkey, Varto 39.2 N 41.7 E 2 520 7.1 31/08/1968 Islamic Republic of Iran 34.0 N 59.0 E > 12 000 7.3 25/07/1969 Eastern China 21.6 N 111.9 E 3 000 5.9 04/01/1970 China, Yunnan 24.1 N 102.5 E 10 000 7.5 28/03/1970 Turkey, Gediz 39.2 N 29.5 E 1 100 7.3 31/05/1970 Peru 9.2 S 78.8 W 66 000 7.8 Great rock slide, floods 10/04/1972 Islamic Republic of Iran 28.4 N 52.8 E 5 054 7.1 23/12/1972 Nicaragua, Managua 12.4 N 86.1 W 5 000 6.2 06/09/1975 Turkey 38.5 N 40.7 W 2 300 6.7 04/02/1976 Guatemala 15.3 N 89.1 W 23 000 7.5 06/05/1976 Italy, northeastern 46.4 N 13.3 E 1 000 6.5 25/06/1976 Papua New Guinea 4.6 S 140.1 E 422 7.5 > 9 000 missing and presumed dead 27/07/1976 China, Tangshan 39.6 N 118.0 E 255 000 8.0 16/08/1976 Philippines, Mindan 6.3 N 124.0 E 8 000 7.9 24/11/1976 Islamic Republic of Iran, northwest 39.1 N 44.0 E 5 000 7.3 04/03/1977 Romania 45.8 N 26.8 E 1 500 7.2 16/09/1978 Islamic Republic of Iran 33.2 N 57.4 E 15 000 7.8 10/10/1980 Algeria, El Asnam 36.1 N 1.4 E 3 500 7.7 23/11/1980 Italy, southern 40.9 N 15.3 E 3 000 7.2 11/06/1981 Islamic Republic of Iran, southern 29.9 N 57.7 E 3 000 6.9 28/07/1981 Islamic Republic of Iran, southern 30.0 N 57.8 E 1 500 7.3 13/12/1982 W. Arabian Peninsula 14.7 N 44.4 E 2 800 6.0 30/10/1983 Turkey 40.3 N 42.2 E 1 342 6.9 19/09/1985 Mexico, Michoacan 18.2 N 102.5 W 9 500 8.1 10/10/1986 El Salvador 13.8 N 89.2 W 1 000+ 5.5 06/03/1987 Colombia–Ecuador 0.2 N 77.8 W 1 000+ 7.0 20/08/1988 Nepal to India 26.8 N 86.6 E 1 450 6.6 07/12/1988 Turkey–USSR 41.0 N 44.2 E 25 000 7.0 20/06/1990 Islamic Republic of Iran, western 37.0 N 49.4 E > 40 000 7.7 16/07/1990 Philippines, Luzon 15.7 N 121.2 E 1 621 7.8
48 to represent the total energy release in the earthquake focus. In general, this scale is called Richter scale, but it should be noted that different magnitude scales are in use by specialists. If not stated otherwise, the term magnitude simply refers to the Richter scale throughout this chapter. On the other hand, the felt or damaging effects of an earthquake can also be used for scaling the size of an earthquake. This scale is called seismic intensity scale, sometimes also referred to as the Mercalli scale after one of the early authors. It is common in most countries of the world to use 12 grades of intensity, expressed with the Roman numerals I to XII. Japan is an exception and uses a 7-grade intensity scale. The maximum intensity of an earthquake, usually found in the epicentral areas, is called the epicentral intensity, and replaces or complements the magnitude when describing the size of historical earthquakes in catalogues. For earthquakes with relatively shallow focal depths (about 10 km), the following approximate empirical relationship holds: Magnitude Epicentral Magnitude Epicentral (Richter) intensity (Richter) intensity I 5 VII (6) XI 4.5 VI XII 5.3 CAUSES OF EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS 5.3.1 Natural seismicity { The concept of large lithospheric plates migrating on the earth’s surface allows deep insight into earthquake generation on a global scale. This has become known as plate tectonics. Three plate boundary related mechanisms can be identified through which more than 90 per cent of the earth's seismicity is produced. These are: (a) Subduction zones in which deep focus earthquakes are produced in addition to the shallow ones (e.g., west coast of South America, Japan); (b) Midocean ridges with mainly shallow earthquakes, which are often connected with magmatic activities (e.g., Iceland, Azores); and (c) Transform faults with mainly shallow seismicity (e.g., west coast of North America, northern Turkey). In general, shallow-focus earthquake activity contributes much more to the earthquake hazard in an area than the less frequently occurring deep earthquake activity. However, deep strong earthquakes should not be neglected in complete seismic hazard calculations. Sometimes they even may dominate the seismic hazard at intermediate and larger distances from the active zone, as found, for example, in Vrancea, Romania. A smaller portion of the world’s earthquakes occur within the lithosphere plates away from the boundaries. These “intra-plate” earthquakes are important and sometimes occur with devastating effects. They are found in the eastern USA, northern China, central Europe and western Australia. 5.3.2 Induced seismicity Chapter 5 — Seismic hazards Reservoir-induced seismicity is observed during periods when hydroelectric reservoirs are being filled (Gough, 1978). About 10–20 per cent of all large dams in the world showed some kind of seismicity either during the first filling cycle or later when the change of the water level exceeded a certain rate. A significant number of prominent cases are described in the literature. Table 5.2 provides a sampling of such occurrences. However, many other large reservoirs similar in size and geologic setting to the ones listed in Table 5.1 have never shown any noticeable seismic activity other than normal natural seismicity. Mining-induced seismicity is usually observed in places with quickly progressing and substantial underground mining activity. The magnitudes of some events have been remarkable (Richter magnitude > 5), resulting in substantial damage in the epicentral area. This type of seismicity is usually very shallow and the damaging effect is rather local. Examples of regions with well-known induced seismic activity are in South Africa (Witwaterstrand) and central Germany (Ruhrgebiet). Explosion-induced seismic activity of the chemical or nuclear type is reported in the literature, but this type of seismicity is not taken into account for standard seismic hazard assessment. Location Dam Capacity Year of Year of Strongest Height (m) (km 3 ) impounding largest event event Magnitude (Richter) Hoover, USA 221 38.3 1936 1939 5.0 Hsinfengkiang, China 105 11.5 1959 1961 6.1 Monteynard, France 130 0.3 1962 1963 4.9 Kariba, Zambia/Zimbabwe 128 160 1958 1963 5.8 Contra, Switzerland 230 0.1 1964 1965 5.0 Koyna, India 103 2.8 1962 1967 6.5 Benmore, New Zealand 110 2.1 1965 1966 5.0 Kremasta, Greece 160 4.8 1965 1966 6.2 Nurek, Tajikistan 300 10.5 1972 1972 4.5 Table 5.2 — Selected cases of induced seismicity at hydroelectric reservoirs
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