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FEDERATION OF EURO-ASIAN STOCK EXCHANGES SEMI ANNUAL REPORT APRIL 2007 ISTANBUL STOCK EXCHANGE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS Economic and Political Environment Turkey has significantly improved its macroeconomic situation by the decisive implementation of a comprehensive economic program with the backing of a single party government. The policy combination followed since 2002, based on tight fiscal and monetary policies and a flexible exchange rate regime have led to an outstanding improvement in key economic variables. Structural reforms in financial markets together with a radical progress in policy framework and institutional advancement paved the way to sustainable high growth which enhanced prospects for Turkey’s eventual membership to the European Union (EU). Turkey has implemented a range of economic, political and social reforms in an effort to meet EU requirements. The ongoing process of EU accession and the signing of a new Stand-By arrangement with the IMF covering the period of 2005-2008 have created two strong anchors for increasing Turkey’s growth potential and improving a better functioning market economy. As a result of the EU pre-accesion process, Turkey’s economic legislation has been progressively aligned with the main policies and standarts of the EU which further strengthened the macroeconomic environment. The recently achieved macroeconomic stability and strong fiscal performance have improved confidence in the economy and contributed to maintain high growth rates in the consecutive four years. The annual growth rate averaged 8%. As a result of take-overs, mergers and acquisitions, some of the ISE member brokerage houses and banks as well as ISE traded companies were bought by foreign investors. Consequently, the share of foreign banks in the Turkish banking sector increased. Economic Performance Following the GNP growth rate of 7.6% achieved in 2005, the Turkish economy grew by 6.4%, 8.5% and 3.0% respectively in the first, second and third quarters of 2006. The growth was mainly driven by the construction sector which grew by 20.1% in the first nine months of 2006. On the expenditures side, private sector consumption and investment expenditures made the highest contribution to growth. By the end of October 2006, exports and imports reached US$ 67.8 billion and US$ 112.3 billion, respectively, exports registering an increase of 12.5% and imports registering an increase of 17.7% compared to the January-October period of 2005. Accordingly, the rate of imports covered by exports stood at 60.4% as of end October 2006. The year-on-year consumer price index increased to 9.86% as of end November 2006, from 7.61% as of end November 2005. The year-on-year producer price index increased to 11.67% as of end November 2006, from 1.60% as of end November 2005. The consolidated budget registered a deficit of YTL 3.8 billion as of the end of October 2006 bringing the year to date primary surplus to YTL 37.1 billion. Total revenues increased by 31.9% to YTL 140.5 billion and total expenditures increased by 24.5% to YTL 144.3 billion as of the end of October 2006 compared to the same period of 2005. Thus, the consolidated budget deficit was realized at YTL 9.4 billion, while the consolidated primary surplus was YTL 29.4 billion for the January- October period in 2005. As of the end of 2006, the ISE-National 100 Index, the main stock market index on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE), decreased by 1.7% in YTL terms and by 6.1% in US$ terms compared to the values at the end of 2005. The main stock market indicator ISE National- 100 Index decreased to a level of 39,117.5 in YTL terms (1,620.6 on US$ basis) at the end of 2006 from 39,777.7 (1,726.2 on US$ basis) at the end of 2005. The stock market total traded value increased to YTL 325 billion by 20.4% on YTL basis and increased to US$ 229.6 billion by 13.8% in US$ terms as of the end of 2006 when compared to the end of 2005. The average daily traded value stood at YTL 1.3 billion (US$ 919 million) at the end of 2006. The market capitalization of 316 ISE traded companies increased to a level of YTL 230.1 billion (US$ 163.8 billion) at the end of 2006 compared to YTL 218.3 billion (US$ 162.8 billion) at the end of 2005. Six ETFs (Exchange Traded Fund) are traded on the ISE as of the end of 2006. The net equity investment in Turkey by foreign portfolio investors has been registered at around US$ 32.8 billion as of end-November 2006 representing 66.4% of the total custody balance of the stocks. The turnover in public debt securities on YTL basis, transacted on the Outright Purchases and Sales Market, decreased by 20.6% to YTL 381.8 billion and in US$ terms by 24.8% to US$ 270.2 billion in 2006, compared 2005. The Repo/Reverse Repo Market turnover on YTL basis increased by 36.5% to YTL 2,538.8 billion and in US$ terms by 27.6% to US$ 1,770.3 billion in the same period. The average daily traded value in the Outright Purchases and Sales Market and the Repo/Reverse Repo Market stood at YTL 11.6 billion (US$ 8.1 billion) as of the end of 2006.* * Information provided by Istanbul Stock Exchange Key Information Contacts Capital Markets Board of Turkey www.cmb.gov.tr ISE Settlement and Custody Bank Inc.(Takasbank) www.takasbank.com.tr Central Registry Agency Inc.of Turkey www.mkk.com.tr The Association of Capital Market Intermediary Institutions of Turkey www.tspakb.org.tr The Turkish Derivatives Exchange (Turkdex) www.turkdex.org.tr PAGE 80
FEDERATION OF EURO-ASIAN STOCK EXCHANGES SEMI ANNUAL REPORT APRIL 2007 ISTANBUL STOCK EXCHANGE TURKEY ECONOMIC CHARTS AND TABLES 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 GDP at market prices (YTL millions) 178,412 277,574 359,763 430,511 487,202 416,072 1 GDP (US$ millions) 145,573 184,400 241,300 300,600 361,500 290,149 1 Real GDP growth (%) -7.5 7.9 5.8 8.9 7.4 5.8 1 Consumer price inflation (av; %) 68.5 29.7 18.4 9.3 7.7 9.4 2 Population (millions) 69.3 70.3 71.3 72.3 73.3 74 Exports (US$ millions) 31,334 36,059 47,068 63,121 73,476 67,819 3 Imports (US$ millions) 41,399 51,554 68,808 97,540 116,773 112,321 3 Eports/imports ratio 75.7 69.9 68.1 64.8 62.9 60.4 3 Current-Account Balance (US$ millions) 3,390 -1,481 -6,808 -15,543 -23,155 -28,021 3 Foreign exchange reserves (US$ millions) 18,879 27,069 33,991 36,006 50,518 58,484 2 Total external debt (US$ billions) 113.6 130.2 145 162.3 171.1 193.6 3 Debt-service ratio, paid (%) 40 46.5 38.5 33 32 13.6 3 Exchange rate (av) YTL:US$* 1.2214 1.5027 1.4957 1.4208 1.3401 1.4287 5 1: January-September 2006 2: January-November 2006 3: January-October 2006 4: January-June 2006, (US$ 66.9 billion is the public sector debt) 5: January-November 2006, Central Bank’s effective buying rates * Information provided by Istanbul Stock Exchange PAGE 81
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