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Final <strong>Report</strong>
RoO Derogation under the PACP-IEPA
have no interaction on the German market in the medium-term. Moreover, the volume of Spanish
canned tuna exports to Germany declined by 7.4 times between 2001 and 2010 (from 4,979 mt to
676 mt), indicating that Spanish firms could not compete on this market regardless of PNG’s
derogation.
Moving away from the discussion of potential trade diversion, one remote possibility, but which has
nothing to do with PNG’s derogation, is that the economic crisis will compel lower-income Italian
and Spanish consumers to switch to lower priced canned skipjack. However, lower cost importers
have not had any real influence in these markets in the past, including during prior recessionary
periods (e.g. in the 1970s), so it is deemed unlikely that PNG will gain access to these markets in the
medium term even if they do see a shift in major product type.
The more realistic possibility of PNG gaining access to Italian and Spanish markets is if EU-based
processors choose to divest from the industry or go bankrupt. In this scenario, PNG would be one of
several third countries hoping to be able to gear up to produce yellowfin packed in olive oil in 80g
cans. However, with the likely collapse of the Doha Round, EU-based industry is unlikely to be
subject to increased competition through multilaterally liberalised tariffs, and given the high
sensitivity of the sector, especially for Spain, it is unlikely that the EU would negotiate new FTAs that
would open it up to bilateral liberalisation.
Finally, it is reasonable to assume that for tuna loins, PNG’s derogation potentially offers a positive
symbiosis with EU-based processing industry because it will be able to offer the latter an additional
supply of duty-free imported loins. 323
To summarise: this discussion of the medium-term impacts of the derogation on EU-based
processors and their markets has identified three key points:
1. Without the purchase of a major brand, PNG’s lack of direct penetration of Italian and
Spanish markets is very unlikely to change.
2. If there are plans for intra-EU growth by Spanish non-branded exporters, they may deepen
interactions with PNG exports, possibly in the French market.
3. However, Italy- and Spain-based processors may develop a symbiosis with PNG through the
increased import of loins.
6.8.4 Impacts on Third Countries and their EU Canned Tuna Markets
The major third country suppliers to the EU of tuna loins and canned tuna have already been
detailed (see Sections 6.2, 6.3.2 and 6.6). While some countries have dropped in and out of being
among the major suppliers, Thailand, Philippines, Ecuador, Mauritius and Seychelles have all
consistently been leading suppliers throughout the last decade. This section looks at potential
impacts on these suppliers of the derogation provided to PNG.
323 This new source of supply may reduce internal negotiations and commercial tensions between EU-based
processors and the EU DWF over the provision of future volume-based import quotas for reduced duty on loins
which is to be renegotiated in 2012 for re-commencement in 2013.
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