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The Interactive Whiteboards, Pedagogy and Pupil Performance ...

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This mean reversion leads to a negative correlation (ρ = 0.45) between a<br />

department’s performance in 2004 <strong>and</strong> the change in their performance between<br />

2004 <strong>and</strong> 2005. Figure 9 shows the association between a department’s GCSE<br />

performance in 2004 <strong>and</strong> the change in effectiveness between 2004 <strong>and</strong> 2005, with<br />

both measured (as a z-score) via the mean pupil performance in the department,<br />

having adjusted fully for the prior attainment <strong>and</strong> socio-economic characteristics of<br />

the intake.<br />

Figure 9: Possible Mean Reversion of Departmental Effectiveness<br />

changemean<br />

-1 -.5 0 .5 1<br />

-1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5<br />

mean2004<br />

Assuming mean reversion explains a significant part of the change in a department’s<br />

‘effectiveness’, if the mean score in 2004 is positively correlated with the increase in<br />

IWB installations, this would explain the negative coefficients for Maths <strong>and</strong> Science.<br />

However, the correlation between changes in IWB levels <strong>and</strong> 2004 effectiveness for<br />

Maths is actually negative <strong>and</strong> the correlation for Science is positive, but small (ρ =<br />

0.05), so this does not seem a likely explanation for our negative treatment<br />

coefficients.<br />

Censoring on the distribution of GCSE scores. If the increase in right-h<strong>and</strong><br />

censoring of Maths <strong>and</strong> Science GCSE scores in departments where the IWBs were<br />

installed was more serious than for those departments where few or no extra IWB<br />

were installed, this would explain the negative coefficients on the Maths <strong>and</strong> Science<br />

estimates. This censoring occurs because there is a maximum high score of an A*<br />

for students, <strong>and</strong> results where a student who achieves an A* might have achieved a<br />

higher grade were one available.<br />

<strong>The</strong>re is some evidence that censoring of the GCSE scores affects the schools that<br />

had a greatest installation of IWBs between Oct 2003 <strong>and</strong> 2004 the most. <strong>The</strong><br />

correlation between the change in incidence of A* grades in the department<br />

(indicating increasing risk of censoring) <strong>and</strong> the change in IWB installations is ρ=0.17<br />

in Maths. However, there is also a significant correlation of a similar magnitude in<br />

English, yet the coefficient on IWB installation is positive in this case. Furthermore,<br />

there is no significant correlation in Science departments. <strong>The</strong>refore, overall it is<br />

67

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