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Despite the significant breakthroughs in food production and agricultural<br />
science achieved over the last century, we are still far from having enough food<br />
to feed an estimated nine billion people by 2050. The first half of <strong>2011</strong> saw civil<br />
unrest across a number of geographies, and behind these public demonstrations<br />
lay the issue of food security. By supporting farmers across the globe to<br />
increase production yields, the fertilizer industry is able to help meet the rising<br />
demand for food.<br />
Nitrogen<br />
• Global agricultural consumption of nitrogen increased by 3.6% in <strong>2011</strong>, from<br />
103.3 MMT to 106.9 MMT of nutrients. In the medium term, the nitrogen<br />
market is expected to grow by up to 4% per year.<br />
• Throughout the first nine months of <strong>2011</strong>, a combination of strong demand,<br />
low inventories, and healthy soft commodity prices pushed average urea<br />
prices to USD 425/MT (FOB Black Sea) compared to USD 287/MT in 2010<br />
and USD 250/MT in 2009.<br />
• In China, a reduction in the duration of the lower tax export window and the<br />
introduction of a sliding export duty on urea, which in practice meant the<br />
duty increased from 7% to 35-40%, brought a sharp decrease in Chinese<br />
exports, further lifting urea prices.<br />
• Rising coal prices continued to push costs up for Chinese urea producers.<br />
Additionally, more than 2 MMT of capacity was shut down in <strong>2011</strong> due<br />
to environmental and energy concerns.<br />
July<br />
Phosphates<br />
• PhosAgro lists 10.3% of its shares<br />
on the London Stock Exchange.<br />
Potash<br />
• Vale resumes its Rio Colorado potash<br />
project in Argentina. The project aims to<br />
have 2.4 MMT of potash capacity by 2015.<br />
August<br />
Nitrogen<br />
• Petrobras announces plans to help reduce Brazil’s<br />
dependence on nitrogen fertilizer imports.<br />
• Russian businessman Arkady Rotenberg <strong>report</strong>edly<br />
acquires Russia’s Rossosh Mineral Fertilizers.<br />
Phosphates<br />
• Anglo American confirms its decision to retain its<br />
previously-for-sale Copebrás operations in Brazil.<br />
September<br />
M&A<br />
• Petrobras and Vale discuss sales of<br />
nitrogen and potash assets.<br />
• EuroChem announces plans to acquire<br />
fertilizer assets from BASF in Antwerp.<br />
+30%<br />
N consumption<br />
since 2000<br />
+32%<br />
K 2 O consumption<br />
since 2000<br />
December<br />
M&A<br />
• SIBUR sells its Azot and Angarsk facilities to the Siberian Business Union and<br />
a 51% stake in Perm Mineral Fertilizers to UralChem.<br />
• Orascom files for approval to split its construction and fertilizer units.<br />
• PotashCorp seeks to raise its stake in Israel Chemicals Limited from 14% to 25%.<br />
• US independent oil and gas group Apache Corporation announces it will acquire<br />
an interest in Australia’s Burrup. Subsequently, in February 2012, Apache acquired<br />
a 49% interest in Burrup Holdings, while Yara increased its ownership to 51%.<br />
Potash<br />
• The K+S Supervisory Board green-lights the Legacy potash project in Saskatchewan.<br />
November<br />
M&A<br />
• Ameropa acquires control of Romania’s leading fertilizer producer,<br />
Azomures Targu Mures.<br />
Phosphates<br />
• PhosAgro acquires Acron’s 51% stake in its Nordic Rus Holding JV with Yara.<br />
+24%<br />
P 2 O 5 consumption<br />
since 2000<br />
• Reacting to global macroeconomic fears, prices for nitrogen fertilizers<br />
significantly decreased in the fourth quarter and troughed in December<br />
at USD 323/MT for urea (FOB Black Sea) and USD 255/MT for AN<br />
(FOB Black Sea). However, as of January, urea and AN prices had already<br />
climbed back to USD 382/MT and USD 299/MT respectively.<br />
• Natural gas prices rose practically everywhere, in Russia by 15% in rouble<br />
terms to c. USD 3.1/mmBtu, in Ukraine to USD 10.7/mmBtu delivered<br />
to the plant, and for Eastern-European producers prices reached<br />
c. USD 11.5-12/mmBtu. In the US, shale gas flow kept the Henry Hub below<br />
USD 4.00/mmBtu, while spot gas in Europe climbed from USD 6.70/mmBtu<br />
in 2010 to USD 9.5/mmBtu in <strong>2011</strong>. Oil-based formula-priced gas in<br />
Western Europe increased to about USD 15/mmBtu in Q4 <strong>2011</strong>, compared<br />
to USD 10.8/mmBtu in Q1 <strong>2011</strong>.<br />
• Current marginal producers (Ukraine, Eastern Europe) are estimated to break<br />
even at USD 280-300/tonne for urea (FOB Black Sea).<br />
• New capacity in the Middle East, North Africa and other low-cost gas regions<br />
remains a challenge for future supply – demand balance in the sector.<br />
Projected additions of competitive new ammonia supply in 2012 include<br />
Qafco V (Mesaieed, Qatar – 1.5 MMT), Sorfert Algérie (Arzew, Algeria –<br />
1.5 MMT), and MOPCO-Agrium (Damietta, Egypt – 0.8 MMT).<br />
2012<br />
Annual Report and Accounts <strong>2011</strong> EuroChem 19<br />
Business review