You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles
YUMPU automatically turns print PDFs into web optimized ePapers that Google loves.
EuroChem’s main planned investments in Potash (2012-2016, USDm):<br />
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016<br />
Total Potash 920 1,027 828 569 290<br />
Gremyachinskoe 691 707 521 321 14<br />
Verkhnekamskoe 229 320 307 248 276<br />
Total next 5 years: USD 3,634 m<br />
<strong>2011</strong> key developments<br />
• Global MOP production increased by about 5% and amounted to 55.6 MMT<br />
(KCl), while global potash fertilizer consumption increased 6.4%, from<br />
27.4 MMT (K 2 O) in 2010 to 29.2 (K 2 O) in <strong>2011</strong>.<br />
• The high demand levels observed in the first half of the year were<br />
exacerbated by a depleted supply chain and fuelled strong price hikes.<br />
• In early <strong>2011</strong>, the Belarusian Potash Company (BPC) entered into a<br />
six-month contract with Chinese buyers at a price of USD 400/tonne (CFR).<br />
Canpotex followed with a similar half-year contract with China and confirmed<br />
the trend to shorter-term six-month contracts, versus the one-year<br />
agreements previously in place. From 1 July, BPC increased Chinese<br />
contract prices to USD 470/tonne (CFR), and from 1 August to<br />
USD 490/tonne (CFR) for India.<br />
• Spot prices had increased from USD 430-480/tonne (CFR) in Q1 to<br />
530-560/tonne (CFR Brazil and SE Asia) by year end.<br />
• Approximately 4 MMT of new KCl capacity was brought on stream in <strong>2011</strong>,<br />
mainly from brownfield projects in Canada, Russia, China, Chile, and Jordan,<br />
bringing global <strong>annual</strong> operational capacity to 71 MMT.<br />
SWOT analysis<br />
Strengths Weaknesses<br />
• Vast reserves (an estimated 3.2bn tonnes*); estimated fifth<br />
largest globally<br />
• Close proximity of the Gremyachinskoe deposit to the Black Sea<br />
port of Tuapse<br />
• High nutrient content averaging 39.5% KCl at Gremyachinskoe<br />
and 30.8% KCl at Verkhnekamskoe<br />
• Deposits are located in areas with existing infrastructure<br />
• Industry estimates place EuroChem among leaders on cash cost<br />
delivered to key markets curve<br />
• Own transhipment terminal to support Gremyachinskoe (Tuapse)<br />
Opportunities Threats<br />
• Become one of the leading players (up to 8 MMT in <strong>annual</strong> capacity)<br />
• Use advanced technology for shaft sinking and enrichment, resulting<br />
in lower cash cost per tonne of production<br />
* A+B+C1 according to Russian reserves classification.<br />
• Several potash projects were announced or further progressed in <strong>2011</strong>:<br />
– In mid-<strong>2011</strong>, BHP Billiton approved an additional USD 488m of investment<br />
to develop its Jansen potash project in Saskatchewan. With production<br />
<strong>report</strong>edly starting from 2015, Jansen full capacity is announced at<br />
8 MMT per year of agricultural grade potash.<br />
– In Q4 <strong>2011</strong>, K+S’ project Legacy was given the green light by the<br />
company’s Supervisory Board. Representing investments of USD 3.1bn,<br />
the solution potash mining project is <strong>report</strong>edly to start production in 2015,<br />
reaching its 2.9 MMT <strong>annual</strong> capacity in 2023.<br />
– In late <strong>2011</strong>, the Agrium Board of Directors approved a 1 MMT brownfield<br />
expansion to its Vanscoy facility in Saskatchewan. The expansion<br />
is expected to increase the company’s total <strong>annual</strong> production capacity<br />
to 3 MMT. Most of the project construction is to take place in 2012<br />
and 2013.<br />
• The Russian government announced the liberalization of the domestic<br />
potash market from 2013, with KCl supplies to Russian NPK producers<br />
to be at a discount to export netback prices until then.<br />
Projected key capacity additions <strong>2011</strong>-2015<br />
• EuroChem remains the farthest advanced greenfield project globally<br />
(Gremyachinskoe phase I: 2.3 MMT).<br />
• Major brownfield expansions planned by Canpotex members include<br />
6.1 MMT at PotashCorp and 1.4 MMT at Mosaic.<br />
• An additional 2.8 MMT in brownfield expansion was announced at<br />
Uralkali prior to 2015.<br />
Over the next five years, EuroChem’s planned investments in potash will<br />
amount to c. USD 3.6bn; with USD 2.2bn and USD 1.4bn earmarked for<br />
the Gremyachinskoe and Verkhnekamskoe deposits, respectively.<br />
• Limited in-house experience in mining and lack of potash greenfield mine<br />
construction know-how in the global market may lead to higher costs<br />
due to the need to engage sub-contractors for planning and construction<br />
of mines and processing facilities<br />
• Prolonged, significantly worse-than-expected market conditions could<br />
negatively affect EuroChem’s ability to continue financing these<br />
investment projects<br />
• Significant risks involved in sinking shafts to 1,200 metres below<br />
surface (Gremyachinskoe), through water layers and other challenging<br />
geological conditions<br />
• Significant capacity additions resulting in oversupply in the industry<br />
Annual Report and Accounts <strong>2011</strong> EuroChem 45<br />
Business review