BF-FieldManual-FEB13 -3.pdf - Bertelsmann Foundation

European Military Spending by Sub-Region800in billions of USD (constant, 2010)70060050040030020010001988 1990 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Central Europe Eastern Europe Western EuropeSource: SIPRIThe size of the regular army is set tofall from 104,000 troops to 90,000 by2015, and to 82,000–84,000 by 2020. Inaddition to these agreed cuts, the UKwill find itself without a carrier strikecapability until 2020. 19While the UK’s main challenge withregard to NATO revolves around theimpact of British austerity measures onthe operational capacity of its military,Germany is plagued more by questionsof leadership and purpose. 20 For mostof the history of the alliance, during theCold War and the enlargement phaseof the 1990s, Germany was a loyal andenthusiastic supporter of NATO. Butthat has given way to ambivalence in thepast decade as NATO’s strategy evolvedtoward more out-of-area operations.Fear of overstretch and an insufficientthreat perception partially explainGermany’s reluctance to get involvedin campaigns outside of Europe. 21Last year, Berlin chose to stay on thesidelines of the intervention in Libyaand withdrew its crews from NATO’sAirborne Warning and Control System(AWACS) aircraft in the Mediterranean, 22much to the dismay of its main NATOpartners. The backlash over Libya has atleast convinced some German officialsthat Berlin’s security policy has a realcredibility problem. 23 A recent initiativeby a number of European foreignministers, including Guido Westerwelle,is trying to address this by advocatingdeeper European military integration,to face the challenges of austerity andturn Europe into a stronger partner forthe US. 24It remains to be seen to what extent newFrench President François Hollande willdepart from his predecessor, NicolasSarkozy, when it comes to NATO policy.Under Sarkozy, France seeminglyfollowed a more Atlanticist path. In 2009,the country ended its 43-year exile fromNATO’s integrated military structure.In addition, Sarkozy maintained hiscountry’s presence in Afghanistanand took on a leadership role in theLibyan campaign. But Hollande and hisforeign minister, Laurent Fabius, wereopposed to France’s return to NATO’sintegrated military structure, and duringthe presidential campaign they pledgedto withdraw the troops stationed inAfghanistan by the end of 2012. 25 Sinceassuming office, however, Hollande hasacted pragmatically. During the Chicagosummit in May 2012, he accepted anumber of compromises as gestures tohis country’s allies: he agreed to delay theAfghan withdrawal and toned down hiscriticism of the alliance’s missile defensesystem. It seems unlikely that Hollandewill go back on Sarkozy’s decision toreturn France to NATO’s integratedstructures, but he is intent on injectingnew life into European defense projects.Recommendations for 2013NATO’s road ahead, as it prepares towind down its presence in Afghanistan,will unquestionably be arduous. TheAlliance will need to re-define itspurpose and maintain its ability to facea plethora of threats in a context markedby austerity and fiscal restraint. Butthis challenge – maintaining NATO’seffectiveness with fewer resources – canbecome a great opportunity for Europeand the US to push through needed andcomprehensive reforms of the Alliance.Through close cooperation, Europe andthe US can develop a NATO with a moreefficient organization and improveddefense culture, which preserves itsrelevance by tackling new threats, andwhich remains engaged with partners ona global scale.2 8Post-Afghanistan NATO