BF-FieldManual-FEB13 -3.pdf - Bertelsmann Foundation

EU-Russia security apparatus. Themodernization partnership has sufferedfrom diverging visions, as Germanyhas viewed it as a vehicle for domesticand economic reform while Russia hasbeen more interested in knowledgeand technology transfers to stateownedindustries. 11 Merkel is also facingincreasing pressure from civil societygroups, the German Green Party, andeven members of her own party to take amore vocal stance against the Kremlin’scrackdown on political opponents.Merkel’s trip to Russia for the annualbilateral St. Petersburg Dialogue inNovember 2012 was overshadowed bya Bundestag resolution put forward bythe CDU’s Andreas Schockenhoff, one ofthe Bundestag’s leading Russia experts,which raised alarm over the country’sworsening human rights record.The EU relationship with Russia continuesto be dominated by energy and trade. Itis Moscow’s largest trade partner, withexports from Russia totaling nearly $200billion in 2011. 12 In 2011, 33 percent of theEU’s natural gas imports originated fromRussia (see chart). On the other side ofthe equation, the EU is the destination ofnearly 70 percent of Russia’s gas exports. 13Energy security concerns have led Brusselsto take a number of steps towards lesseningEuropean dependence on Russian energyimports to hedge against Russian businessand political practices in the energy sector.The EU has shown active interest inseveral alternative energy interests, suchas the Nabucco gas pipeline from theCaspian region and the emerging shalegas and liquefied natural gas (LNG)markets in Poland and the US. The EU’sThird Energy Package, adopted by theEuropean Commission in 2009, bars theownership of sales and transmissionoperations by non-member states, amove which may force Gazprom to sellits transmission assets and give upsome of its dominance of the Europeanenergy market just as other competitors,particularly LNG from Qatar, areemerging on a spot market. That theCommission is now investigatingGazprom for anti-competitive marketpractices has only added to the tensionbetween Brussels and Moscow. 14Recommendations for 2013Formal engagement between the twocountries will not begin in earnest afterPresident Obama is inaugurated for hissecond term. However, with a Septembervisit to St. Petersburg for a Group of 20Summit meeting on the horizon and witha post-election invitation by VladimirPutin for a bi-lateral visit to Moscowon the table, the topic of US-Russiarelations will likely find itself near theforefront of the administration’s 2013foreign policy agenda. Therefore, it will beincumbent upon the new administrationto quickly articulate a policy that willbalance cooperative engagement withaddressing concerns on human rightsand democracy in Russia. It can do so byconsidering a number of steps:1. Graduate from the “reset”:Despite some ups and downs, the Obamaadministration’s policy reset was a relativesuccess. Its overtures helped soften viewsamong Russian leadership that the USis actively seeking to weaken Moscow,and both sides can point to several areasin which agreement has been reached:counterterrorism efforts, Russia’s allowingNATO supplies to cross its territory on theirway into Afghanistan, the 123 Agreementand mutual ratification of the New STARTTreaty. The new administration shouldbuild on the successes of the reset andmove relations to the next level. It shouldcontinue to find issues where interestsare compatible. Russia has previouslyshown a willingness to cooperate withthe US and EU on missile defense andIran, and while the sides remain far apart,continued engagement can producepositive results. To that end, the US shouldpursue frequent dialogue in forums thatbuild stronger working relationships andcooperation. The US Presidential BilateralCommission jointly agreed to in 2009 hasled to frequent contact between officials,and the next administration should seekto make that a permanent aspect of thebilateral relationship.Vladimir Putin Approval Ratings (2011-2012)747270in percent686664626058Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunJul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun2011 2012Source: The Levada CenterJul6 6Russia