BF-FieldManual-FEB13 -3.pdf - Bertelsmann Foundation

in percentTurkey’s Annual GNI Growth & Inflation Rate (2000-2011)6050403020100-102000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Gross National IncomeGrowth (annual)serious turn for the worse after the2008–2009 Israeli-Gaza conflict and theMay 2010 Israeli raid on an aid flotillaheaded from Turkey for the Gaza Strip.After the release of a UN report on theflotilla incident in September 2011,Turkey downgraded diplomatic tieswith Israel and suspended militarycooperation. Reconciliation would be agreat diplomatic asset for Europe andthe US, but remains blocked by Turkey’sdemands for an apology from Israel,compensation for the victims of theraid, and an end to the Israeli blockadeof Gaza.Turkey’s attempted rapprochement withIran presented another problem for theUS and Europe. Under the AKP, Ankaratook steps to patch up its historicallytense relations with Tehran, significantlyincreasing bilateral trade (from $1.25billion in 2002 to $16.05 billion in2011). 9 Even more controversial, Turkey’sattempts to mediate the ongoing Iraniannuclear crisis undermined the delicateglobal consensus that the US andEurope were trying to build on sanctions.Along with Brazil, Turkey signed a deal inMay 2010 to outsource Iran’s enricheduranium in exchange for fuel, and votedthe following month against a newround of UN sanctions against Tehran.Source: World BankInflation, ConsumerPrices (annual)This rapprochement has, however,lost momentum since 2011, draggeddown by the countries’ differences overthe Arab uprising, Turkish support forNATO’s missile defense and Syria. 10This could provide an opportunity formore meaningful collaboration betweenTurkey and the West insofar as managingthe Iranian nuclear crisis. 11...for all its goodintentions, Turkey’smore assertive approachhas failed to avoid disputeswith its Middle Easternneighbors—problemsthat in many casescould directly affect theUS and Europe.Finally, the AKP had also tried in pastyears to mend fences with Syria, whichhad long opposed Turkey’s close ties withthe West. Until 2008, Turkey attemptedto mediate the conflict between Israeland Syria and, in the early stages of theSyrian civil war, maintained relationswith Syrian President Bashar al-Assad,pleading with him to stop the violenceand begin reforms. But relations betweenDamascus and Ankara soon plummetedas the war escalated. 12 After August 2011,Turkey cut ties to Assad and began toprovide aid to the opposition. In June2012, Syria shot down a Turkish fighterjet, and both sides exchanged mortarfire along their border in October 2012,bringing them dangerously close toopen war. Such a conflict would not bewelcomed by a Turkish public opposedto intervention in Syria; it would bedisastrous for the region, and could alsodraw in Europe and the US, consideringTurkey’s NATO membership. 13European PerspectivesEurope’s relationship with Turkeyremains complex and multi-faceted.Individual EU members have over thepast seven years sought to managetheir bilateral relationships withAnkara while outlining a position onTurkey’s EU candidacy. The issue hasdeeply polarized the union, pittingfirm supporters (Spain, Sweden andthe UK among them) against stubbornopponents (particularly, as mentioned,France, Germany and Cyprus). Since theopening of negotiations in 2005, Ankarahas had to address EU concerns onTurkey’s size and potential power withinthe union, the ongoing Cyprus issue,and the social and political ramificationsof admitting the EU’s first predominantlyMuslim country. Through all this, theTurkish government has experienceddiverging relations with Europe’spower brokers.Turkey has found a British governmenteager to expand on already warmrelations. The UK has sought to deepenties as part of a broader strategy aimedat fostering closer partnerships withemerging economic powers. In 2010,Turkey was the UK’s 22nd largest exportmarket, while the UK was Turkey’s 12thlargest source of imports. 14 Bilateraltrade averages £6.5 billion per year, afigure the British government aims todouble by 2015. 15 It has also pursued anumber of bilateral initiatives aimed atimproving economic cooperation, suchas the UK-Turkey CEO Forum. 16Geopolitically, the UK views TurkeyTurkey5 7