BF-FieldManual-FEB13 -3.pdf - Bertelsmann Foundation

MEMO ONTHE ARAB UPRISINGThe State of PlayOn Dec. 17, 2010, in Sidi Bouzid, Tunisia,street vendor Mohamed Bouazizi—fed up with constant harassment fromthe local police and the confiscationof his produce cart—set himself onfire in protest ultimately causing hisdeath. Within a few weeks, the wholeArab world was ablaze. The region’sdangerous mix of repressive andautocratic governments, pervasivecorruption, human rights abuses andstuttering economic growth made itfertile ground for revolution. By Jan. 14,2011, a mere four weeks after Bouazizi’sself-immolation, general protests inTunisia had succeeded in overthrowingZine El Abidine Ben Ali, the autocraticleader in power since 1987.Tunisia’s dramatic achievementimmediately resonated across the Arabworld. Within days of Ben Ali fleeing hiscountry, demonstrations broke out inEgypt, Oman, Jordan and Saudi Arabia;mass protests forced Egypt’s strongmanHosni Mubarak out of office on Feb.11; and unrest moved on to furthercountries, including Libya, Bahrain,Morocco and Syria. The fate of theseopposition movements varied across theregion, shaped by the differing goals ofthe protesters—from regime change inNorth Africa to reform from within in theGulf—and the spectrum of responsesfrom the various governments. Thereactions ranged from yielding toprotesters’ demands (Tunisia and Egypt)all the way to brutal crackdowns leadingto full-blown revolutions (Syria andLibya). 1The Arab uprising blindsided Europe andthe US, and tore apart the Faustian pactthat had characterized European policytowards North Africa—overlookingthe human rights abuses of autocraticThe outbreak of the Arab uprising proved a humblingexperience for Europe, which was taken by surprise bythe protests and embarrassed by its close ties with theautocratic rulers of North Africa.rulers in exchange for those rulersmaintaining security and stability inEurope’s backyard. 2 Eventually, however,the US and the leading European statesrecovered from their initial shock,acknowledged their past mistakes andtook steps to make sure they moved tothe “right side of history”. They optedto back protest movements and tocondemn governments who tried torepress these movements by force. InLibya, NATO, led by the UK, France andthe US, intervened in order to protectcivilians from Moammar Gaddafi’s forcesand decisively tipped the balance infavor of the rebels.Europe and the US also played aprominent role in establishing theDeauville partnership to aid Arabcountries in transition. The G8 summitin May 2011 led to an agreementbetween G8 members and majorinternational institutions (such as theIMF, the World Bank, the European Bankfor Reconstruction and Development,and the European Investment Bank)to pledge $40 billion in aid from 2011to 2013 for Egypt and Tunisia. A latermeeting in fall 2011 upped the pledge tonearly $80 billion and extended the aidto Jordan, Morocco and Libya. 3In the past two years, the Arab uprisinghas caused (and is still causing) seismicchanges across North Africa and theMiddle East. The regional transitionwill continue to unfold over the longterm and will be volatile. 4 The lingeringuncertainty will present significantpolicy challenges for Europe and the US.While the international community hasso far refrained from any direct militaryintervention in Syria, that country’s civilconflict rages on and risks spilling overits borders. The impact of the eurozonecrisis on Western donors threatensthe strong promises of support for theMiddle East and North Africa, with manycountries still waiting for promisedfunds. 5Furthermore, Europe and the US aregrappling with the emergence of newpolitical actors that do not view themfavorably. Islamist parties, despite theirminor role in the protests, have comeout on top in the various elections heldacross North Africa since the start of theuprising. Ennahda gained 37 percentof the votes in Tunisia in the October2011 elections; the following month, theJustice and Development Party gainedthe largest number of seats in Morocco(107 out of 395, with 27 percent of thevotes); and the Freedom and Justice Party,founded by the Muslim Brotherhood,won nearly 45 percent of the seats inthe Egyptian parliamentary election. 6 InJune 2012, Muslim Brotherhood memberMohamed Morsi won the presidency inEgypt.The violent protests outside the USEmbassy in Cairo in September—inresponse to an anti-Islam film made inthe US—also underscored the fact thatthe establishment of democracy in NorthAfrica will not necessarily translateinto pro-Western governments; the3 2The Arab Uprising