D E S C R I P T I O N O F W O R K - MEGAPOLI - Dmi

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MEGAPOLI 212520 PART B B1 Concept and objectives, progress beyond state-of-the-art, scientific and technical methodology and work plan B.1.1 Concept and project objectives The main objectives of the MEGAPOLI project are: Objective 1: to assess impacts of megacities and large air-pollution “hot-spots” on local, regional, and global air quality and climate; Objective 2: to quantify feedbacks between megacity emissions, air quality, local and regional climate, and global climate change; Objective 3: to develop and implement improved, integrated tools to assess the impacts of air pollution from megacities on regional and global air quality and climate and to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation option MEGAPOLI will include both basic and applied research, and will bridge the spatial and temporal scales that connect local emissions, air quality and weather conditions with global atmospheric chemistry and climate. In order to fulfil the objectives the following scientific questions will be addressed: Q1: What is the change of exposure of the overall population to the major air pollutants as people move into megacities? What are the health impacts of this exposure? (Objective 1) Q2: How do megacities affect air quality on regional and global scales? What is the range of influence for major air pollutants (ozone, particulate matter, etc.)? (Objective 1) Q3: What are the major physical and chemical transformations of air pollutants as they are moving away from megacities? What happens to the organic particulate matter, volatile organic compounds, etc? (Objective 1) Q4: How accurate are the current emission inventories for megacities in Europe and around the world? What are the major gaps? (Objective 1) Q5: How large is the current impact of megacities on regional and global climate? (Objective 2) Q6: How will the growth of megacities affect future climate at global and regional scales? (Objective 2) Q7: What is the impact of large-scale dynamic processes on air pollution from megacities? (Objective 2) Q8: What are the key feedbacks between air quality, local climate and global climate change relevant to megacities? For example, how will climate change affect air quality in megacities? (Objective 2) Q9: How should megacities (emissions, processing inside megacities, meteorology) be parameterised in regional and global models? (Objective 3) Q10: What type of modelling tools should be used for the simulation of multi-scale megacity air quality - climate interactions? (Objective 3) Q11: Which policy options are available to influence the emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases in megacities and how can these options be assessed? (Objective 3) In order to answer the above questions and achieve the main objectives we will perform the following tasks: T1: Develop and evaluate integrated methodologies to improve emission data from megacities on regional through global scales; (Objective 1) 7
MEGAPOLI 212520 T2: Investigate physical and chemical processes starting from the street level in a megacity, continuing to the megacity scale, and then to the regional and global scales; (Objective 1) T3: Assess regional and global impacts of megacity plumes, including: atmospheric transport (local pollution build-up and its regional/global transport) and chemical transformation of gas and aerosol pollutants emitted in megacities; (Objective 1) T4: Quantify impacts of polluted air-masses on larger scale atmospheric dynamics (physics and chemistry, hydrological processes, long-range/hemispheric transport, etc.); (Objective 2) T5: Determine the main mechanisms of regional meteorology/climate forcing due to megacity plumes; (Objective 2) T6: Assess global megacity aerosol/pollutant forcing and its effects on global climate; (Objective 2) T7: Examine feedback mechanisms including effects of climate change on megacity environment and emissions; (Objective 2) T8: Develop improved 'integrated' tools for prediction of air pollution in megacities; (Objective 3) T9: Evaluate these integrated modelling tools and use them in case studies for selected megacities; (Objective 3) T10: Develop and apply a methodology to estimate the impacts of different scenarios of megacity development on human health and climate change; (Objective 3) T11: Propose and assess mitigation options to reduce the impacts of megacity emissions: provide support for European Commission’s new air pollution and climate change strategy and policies. (Objective 3) B.1.2 Progress beyond the state-of-the-art Introduction For the past few hundred years, human populations have been clustering in increasingly large settlements. In 2007, for the first time in history, the world’s urban population will exceed the rural population (UN-HABITAT, 2006). At present, there are about 20 cities worldwide with a population of 10 million or greater, and 30 with a population of exceeding 7 million. These numbers are expected to grow considerably in the near future. Such coherent urban areas with more than about 5 million people are usually called megacities (although there is no formal definition of a megacity at present). In Europe there are six major population centres that clearly qualify as megacities: London, Paris, the Rhine-Ruhr region, the Po Valley, Moscow, and Istanbul (Figure 1). Megacities and heavily urbanized regions produce a large fraction of the national gross domestic product (GDP) (e.g. London, Paris and Mexico City account respectively of 19.9, 27.9 and 26.7% of the corresponding national GDP (OECD, 2006)). Human activities in megacities lead to serious challenges in municipal management, such as housing, employment, provision of social and health services, the coordination of public and private transport, fluid and solid waste disposal, and local and regional air pollution. This project focuses on the latter, spanning the range from emissions to air quality, effects on regional and global climate, and feedbacks and mitigation potentials. The project will take into account the different features and growing trends that characterize cities located in developed and developing countries to highlight their present and future effects on local to global air quality and climate. Identification of Problems to be Solved Our hypothesis is that megacities around the world have an impact on air quality not only locally, but also regionally and globally and therefore can also influence the climate of our planet. In Figure 2 a schematic description of how megacities, air quality and climate interact is presented. Some of the links shown have already been considered by previous studies and are reasonably well- 8
Page 1 and 2: MEGACITIES • AIR QUALITY • CLIM
Page 3 and 4: MEGAPOLI PROJECT OFFICE OFFICIAL WE
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MEGAPOLI 212520 M7.1 Determination
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MEGAPOLI 212520 T4.3 Interactions b
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MEGAPOLI 212520 B2. Implementation
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MEGAPOLI 212520 Table 2.2 MEGAPOLI
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MEGAPOLI 212520 expected and unexpe
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MEGAPOLI 212520 used in a variety o
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MEGAPOLI 212520 modelling and envir
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MEGAPOLI 212520 6.1: CNRS - LISA Ex
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MEGAPOLI 212520 chemistry. His curr
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MEGAPOLI 212520 Role and contributi
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MEGAPOLI 212520 Quality Unit has lo
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MEGAPOLI 212520 Canada, Mexico, US;
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MEGAPOLI 212520 EPISODE model. Appl
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MEGAPOLI 212520 authored ~ 30 peer-
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MEGAPOLI 212520 including chemistry
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MEGAPOLI 212520 meteorological and
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MEGAPOLI 212520 environmental conve
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MEGAPOLI 212520 subjects are dynami
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MEGAPOLI 212520 UK MetO KCL UCam UH
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MEGAPOLI 212520 15 MetO W. Collins,
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MEGAPOLI 212520 11. USEPA-AR: US-En
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MEGAPOLI 212520 member states. In t
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MEGAPOLI 212520 B3 Expected impacts
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MEGAPOLI 212520 The scientific know
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MEGAPOLI 212520 European and other
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MEGAPOLI 212520 for applying, obtai
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MEGAPOLI 212520 B5. Consideration o
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MEGAPOLI 212520 Galmarini S., Vilà
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MEGAPOLI 212520 Schaap, M, van Loon
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MEGAPOLI 212520 Appendix 1: Specifi
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MEGAPOLI 212520 Appendix 2: List of
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MEGAPOLI 212520 DMS Dimethyl sulphi
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MEGAPOLI 212520 INTAS The Internati
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MEGAPOLI 212520 PMC Project Managem
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MEGAPOLI 212520 UTLS Upper Troposph
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April 12, 2007 To whom it may conce
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Ira A. Fulton School of Engineering
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To whom it may concern: April 26, 2
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FACULTY OF SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING
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30 April 2007 To whom it may concer
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