D E S C R I P T I O N O F W O R K - MEGAPOLI - Dmi

MEGAPOLI 212520
CAIR4HEALTH and ENVIRISK. Health risks will be calculated using concentration-response- and
exposure-response relationships developed and recommended in these projects, different health
endpoints can then be aggregated using DALY’s (disability adjusted life years). Climate change
damage is assessed using results from the FUND model (developed by R. Tol, University of
Hamburg) and by analysing studies on climate change impacts including the IPCC report and
DEFRA studies. Damage to ecosystems from acidification and eutrophication is assessed with a
method developed in the NEEDS project using ‘potentially disappearing fractions’ of species as
damage indicators.
To be able to compare the different damage categories with each other and with costs of measures,
the damage indicators should be converted into a common unit; here monetary units are chosen
using contingent valuation, which measures the preference of the population, e.g. by surveys about
the willingness to pay to avoid a (small) risk, as means to allocate monetary values to risks and
damages. Again, results of the above mentioned projects, especially NEEDS, are used. Using the
monetized results, cost-benefit analyses can be carried out (for short and medium term measures,
for long term measures benefits are calculated). To be able to generate these results efficiently, a
computer tool is developed (task 3 of this WP).
A first analysis will ask about the development of impacts from megacities, for the case that no
additional measures are implemented. For that, a baseline scenario will be developed together with
WP1, assuming a trend development of activities and emission factors that takes into account
current legislation and legislation in the pipeline. Available policy options (possibilities for
implementing instruments by the policy makers to accomplish their goals), which could be
implemented in addition to those of the baseline scenario, will be systematically collected.
Assumptions will have to be made about how the operators and users of emission sources react to
these options, i.e., which abatement and mitigation measures they will implement. Both technical
measures (changing emissions factors, e.g., an additional filter) and non-technical measures (which
change the decisions and the behaviour of users of emission sources, e.g., by implementing a
charge on emissions) will be addressed. The whole analysis will be carried out for the 1st level
cities and agglomerations: Paris, London, Rhine-Ruhr and the Po Valley. In addition, Mexico-City
will also be analysed as an example for cities in developing countries with quite different
development prospects and features. The definition and the assessment of the scenarios are carried
out in close cooperation and discussion with the main stakeholders, especially the administration of
the megacities that are analysed, and the EC; this is achieved and planned in task 2 of the WP.
A major innovation of this project is that it strives for a full integrated assessment of megacities.
Policy options and mitigation measures generally influence the emission of more than one pollutant,
thus for assessing such measures all effected impacts have to be taken into account. In addition,
especially the relationship between climate change and air pollution is important, but not yet fully
analysed. Thus the integration occurs:
- across impacts, especially climate change impacts and air pollution impacts, including health risks
and ecosystem damage;
- across pollutants and emission sources, e.g. transport, energy conversion, industry, households,
waste, agriculture, natural and biogenic processes; PM10, PM2.5, ozone, acid substances, nutrients,
greenhouse gases, and others;
- across scales: local, urban, regional, global; short, medium and long term.
The assessment of policy and mitigation options will be based on the simultaneous assessment of all
relevant changes in damages and risks caused by the option (and not on the potential, e.g., with
regard to the reduction of a single pollutant). The estimation of health, ecosystem and climate
change impacts will be based on the current state of knowledge as currently analysed in running EC
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