D E S C R I P T I O N O F W O R K - MEGAPOLI - Dmi

MEGAPOLI 212520
developing interfaces for coupling (direct links between emissions, chemistry and meteorology at
every time step) and defining common formats for data exchange to ease the implementation and
combination of the different models via agreed data exchange protocols. Task 3 will examine
process requirements, operational aspects, levels of integration, interfaces between meteorological,
air quality and climate models and formulate strategies for undertaking comparison of approaches
according to different levels of integration and order of complexity. This will require interaction
with all other WPs. Task 4 will apply the improved and integrated models to real megacity cases on
multiple scales from city to global. The task will employ complex and simpler approaches
highlighting their complementary nature. The cities will be selected according to emission source
mix, intensity of emission rates, meteorological characteristics (orographic and weather patterns),
future growth trends, local impact as well as potential to directly affect Europe. Task 5 will lead to
recommendations on the main science questions related to megacities (see section 1.1).
WP8: Mitigation, policy options and impact assessment
Overview and background
This work package will deal with the beginning and the end of the full chain or impact pathway
approach of integrated assessments to be carried out in the project. In a project like MEGAPOLI, it
is important to define policy questions to be answered in the assessment, and to create scenarios, at
the beginning of the project, while towards the end it becomes important to assess the impacts of
different policy options and prepare recommendations for specific actions in cooperation with
policy makers, in particular the megacity administrations and the EC. Examples for policy questions
which need to be addressed include:
Short term (2010/2020): Can the PM10 and PM2.5 thresholds be met with current and currently
planned measures? What are the health and climate change impacts? Which additional policy
strategies and which additional abatement measures are available to reduce health risks, ecosystem
damage and climate change impacts; what are costs and benefits of these measures, beyond the
impacts of the ‘base line’ development? Is it possible at all to meet the current PM10 and NO2
thresholds with additional feasible measures? What is the effect of climate change and climate
change strategies on air pollution and vice versa? How can the challenges from upcoming
environmental regulations be met (thematic strategy on air quality, post-Kyoto aims, new NEC
directive)?
Long term (2030-2050): What are the options and effects of long term city planning and urban
management in the long run (including changes in the number of inhabitants and working places)?
How beneficial are these changes (e.g. better air quality, but higher energy demand, if population
density decreases)? What is the potential of such changes?
Methodology and Advancement Beyond the State-of-the-Art
The policy questions outlined above will be addressed by generating scenarios – descriptions of
possible consistent future developments of the megacities and the surrounding regions (i.e. Europe
for the European cities) – and comparing the impacts of the different scenarios. The scenarios will
be used to generate an emission data set for each scenario (in WP 1), which will then be used as
input for the integrated assessment tool to be run in WP 7. Output of these model runs will be maps
and parameters describing air quality, deposition and impacts on climate change for each scenario.
These results will be assessed in the following ways: first the compliance with current existing
thresholds will be examined, and using cost-benefit analyses, bundles of measures that fulfil certain
aims with least costs can be identified. Secondly, to be able to analyse the importance of air quality
and climate changes, the results will be converted into damages using the impact pathway approach
developed in the ExternE project series including the currently running FP6 projects NEEDS and
EXIOPOL, and based on the findings of the FP6 projects INTARESE, HEATCO, HEIMTSA,
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