D E S C R I P T I O N O F W O R K - MEGAPOLI - Dmi

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MEGAPOLI 212520 B.1.3.6 Work package description Table 1.3 c: Work package description WP1: Emissions Work package number 1 Start date or starting event: Month 1 Work package title Emissions Activity Type 1 RTD Participant number 1 3 4 7 10 14 19 Person-months per participant: 0.5 8 1.5 3 3 13.5 3.5 Objectives O1.1 Compile regional and global emission inventories for all relevant/desired pollutants and GHGs O1.2 Deliver (high resolution) state-of-the-art gridded emission maps for present and projection years and nest more detailed Mega City inventories in the regional or global emission maps O1.3 Development of a baseline scenario for 2020, 2030 and 2050 for Europe and the relevant megacities e.g., Paris, London, Rhine-Ruhr, Po Valley, Mexico City O1.4 Validate and improve EI’s in cooperation with other WPs through comparison of measured-modelled concentrations, source strength analysis and use of source apportionment results. Description of work and role of participants Task 1.1: Global anthropogenic and natural emission inventories (lead: TNO, MPIC, FMI) The effort in this task concentrates on compiling and combining available global inventories e.g., EDGAR (TNO and MPI are co-developers), the EU-IP RETRO database (TNO) and the global carbonaceous aerosol inventory (Bond et al (2004)., enhancing the resolution of the current gridded data and nesting the case study cities accurately in the global data base. For natural sources, the modellers will start out with what is currently available. In cases where deficiencies are found, e.g., because certain regional-scale natural sources are found to significantly influence the Mega City AQ, a further assessment of the natural source strength will be made, e.g., by implementing a new source function for sea salt or soil dust. Task 1.2: Regional Pan-European anthropogenic emission inventory (lead: TNO, USTUTT) This task will provide complete Pan-European emission inventories and high resolution emission maps of primary anthropogenic particulate matter (PM), Black carbon (BC) and primary Organic carbon (OC) and other desired pollutants at a resolution of 1/8 x 1/16 lola (or ~ 6 x 6 km) for the base year as inputs to the regional modelling activities in WP 5 and 6. Relevant emission characteristics important for improving the predictive capacity of the models will be improved and included where possible. A gridded map of natural PM emissions for Europe will be provided based on the results of the EU NATAIR project (USTUTT) to complete the data for regional AQ and Climate modelling. A novel development in the EU-IP EUCAARI is the development of a first particle number emissions database. Since PN may be important to predict the climate effects of the megacity plume we propose to use the preliminary finding from EUCAARI to make a PN emission plume for the megacity of focus. If desired by modellers, (limited) effort will be placed in NOx splitting (NO and NO2) and SOx splitting which is relevant especially in the higher resolving models. Depending on the megacity of focus an assessment of the importance of shipping emissions for megacity AQ will be made Task 1.3: Development of a baseline scenario (lead: USTUTT, TNO) This task involves the provision of a baseline scenario for the years 2020 and 2030 and a rough estimate for 2050 for Europe and for the case study Mega Cities (Paris, London, Rhine-Ruhr, Po Valley, Mexico City). The baseline scenarios are the basis for the analysis of emission reduction measures and strategies in WP 8. Due to budget restriction, it will only be possible to use already existing scenarios; if for the cities scenarios are not available, they will be generated by downscaling the emissions for the city area from the European data base. The scenarios will be integrated and analysed with regard to the major assumptions made. Task 1.4: Case studies (lead: KCL, CNRS, USTUTT, ARIANET) Detailed emission inventory data need to be nested in a consistent way in the regional and/or global emission 1 Please indicate one activity per work package: RTD = Research and technological development (including any activities to prepare for the dissemination and/or exploitation of project results, and coordination activities); DEM = Demonstration; MGT = Management of the consortium; OTHER = Other specific activities, if applicable. 33
MEGAPOLI 212520 inventories. This means the underlying activity data tables need to be “translated” and linked in the various databases. For the purpose of the MEGAPOLI questions detailed, high quality and high resolution city inventories need to be available both as model input and a base for mitigation measures. For each selected megacity a partner will adopt the retrieval and processing of the desired emission data London (KCL); Paris (CNRS); Rhine-Ruhr area (USTUTT); Po Valley (ARIANET); Mexico-city (ARIANET icw Univ of Iowa(CGRER) Task 1.5: European heat flux inventory (lead: KCL, TNO) To assess the impact of Mega cities on local climate the heat flux is important. Heat may be produced at a different location than the fuel is combusted (e.g. electricity generation and consumption). This tasks aims at making a European anthropogenic heat flux inventory by using the activity data and spatial distribution of task 2 and working with heat flux factors developed in cooperation and linked to WP2. Task 1.6: Validation, evaluation and improvement of EI’s (all WP partners) Task 1 and task 2 will start out with delivering a first working version of the desired inventories in the first year of the project. After delivery further improvement of the EI’s will be pursued through; 1) feed back from modellers working with the EI’s; 2) A general review of regional source apportionment studies to improve EI’s at the regional scale; 3) Validation through measurement data and source apportionment within MEGAPOLI (WP3 and WP4). Task 1.7: Processing of emission inventories for model sensitivity and scenario runs (lead: TNO, MPIC) Several sensitivity runs will be carried out in WP5 and scenario runs in WP6 and WP8. Emissions for these runs will be processed here. In particular, for WP5, two types of sensitivity runs will be used to characterize the impact of megacities. In the first, the net effect is determined by simply removing the total emissions from the grid cells comprising each megacity. This will be done first in the high-resolution emission data (particularly the 0.1 degree data, which should be made available by EDGAR in early 2008), then interpolated to the coarser model grid, to best simulate the change due to the megacities. The second type of sensitivity run will redistribute the emissions by assuming that a fraction of the population (e.g., 10%) of each megacity under consideration were to move to the surrounding regions, thus decreasing the megacity emissions and increasing the rural emissions accordingly. We will explore different approaches to doing this, such as spreading the relocated population evenly throughout the country, or only in the suburban or rural regions immediately surrounding the megacity. Furthermore, for WP5, WP6, and WP8 future scenario datasets will be developed, including sensitivity run datasets based on the same approach as described above. for the sensitivity run datasets Further scenarios, particularly for WP8 may also be requested as the project progresses. Deliverables D1.1 Base year global gridded emission inventory (1st version) (month 12) D1.2 Base year European gridded emission inventory (1st version) (month 12) D1.3 European and mega city baseline scenarios for 2020, 2030 and 2050 (month 18) D1.4 European heat flux inventory (month 18) D1.5 Global emission inventory (final version) (month 24) D1.6 European emission inventory (final version) (month 24) 34
Page 1 and 2: MEGACITIES • AIR QUALITY • CLIM
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Page 29 and 30: MEGAPOLI 212520 CAIR4HEALTH and ENV
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MEGAPOLI 212520 authored ~ 30 peer-
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MEGAPOLI 212520 including chemistry
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MEGAPOLI 212520 meteorological and
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MEGAPOLI 212520 environmental conve
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MEGAPOLI 212520 subjects are dynami
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MEGAPOLI 212520 UK MetO KCL UCam UH
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MEGAPOLI 212520 15 MetO W. Collins,
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MEGAPOLI 212520 11. USEPA-AR: US-En
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MEGAPOLI 212520 member states. In t
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MEGAPOLI 212520 B3 Expected impacts
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MEGAPOLI 212520 The scientific know
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MEGAPOLI 212520 European and other
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MEGAPOLI 212520 for applying, obtai
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MEGAPOLI 212520 B5. Consideration o
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MEGAPOLI 212520 Galmarini S., Vilà
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MEGAPOLI 212520 Schaap, M, van Loon
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MEGAPOLI 212520 Appendix 1: Specifi
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MEGAPOLI 212520 Appendix 2: List of
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MEGAPOLI 212520 DMS Dimethyl sulphi
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MEGAPOLI 212520 INTAS The Internati
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MEGAPOLI 212520 PMC Project Managem
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MEGAPOLI 212520 UTLS Upper Troposph
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April 12, 2007 To whom it may conce
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Ira A. Fulton School of Engineering
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To whom it may concern: April 26, 2
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FACULTY OF SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING
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30 April 2007 To whom it may concer
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