Jos_von_Asmuth_Thesis.pdf - repository
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`Ü~éíÉê=T==7.1 IntroductionNRO=7.1.1 Time series models: their strong points and limitationsaóå~ãáÅ=ëóëíÉãë=~êÉ=ìÄáèìáíçìë=áå=Systemçìê=ÉåîáêçåãÉåíI=ÄçíÜ=å~íìê~ä=~åÇ=ã~åJã~ÇÉI=~åÇ=Ñçêã=íÜÉ=StructureëìÄàÉÅí=çÑ=ã~åó=ÇáÑÑÉêÉåí=ëÅáÉåíáÑáÅ=ÇáëÅáéäáåÉëK=`çåëÉèìÉåíäóI=íÜÉ=InputíÜÉçêó=~åÇ=íÉÅÜåáèìÉë=Ñçê=~å~äóòáåÖ=~åÇ=ãçÇÉäáåÖ=ÅçääÉÅíÉÇ=BehavioríáãÉ=ëÉêáÉë=Ç~í~=Ü~îÉ=~=î~ëí=~ééäáÅ~íáçå=~êÉ~K=låÉ=ã~ó=ÇáëÅÉêå=ÇáÑÑÉêÉåí=ÇáëÅáéäáåÉë=ëìÅÜ=~ë=íáãÉ=ëÉêáÉë=~å~äóëáëI=ëóëíÉã=áÇÉåíáÑáÅ~íáçåI=Åçåíêçä=ÉåÖáåÉÉêáåÖI= =ëáÖå~ä=éêçÅÉëëáåÖ=~åÇ=ÑáäíÉêáåÖI=ÇÉéÉåÇáåÖ=çå=íÜÉ=íóéÉ=çÑ=ëóëíÉã=~ÇÇêÉëëÉÇI=íÜÉáê=éÜóëáÅ~ä=ÑìåÅíáçåáåÖI=íÜÉ=~î~áä~ÄäÉ=Ç~í~=~åÇ=íÜÉ=éêçÄäÉã=íç=ÄÉ=ëçäîÉÇK=qÜÉ=íÜÉçêó=~åÇ=íÉÅÜåáèìÉë=ìëÉÇ=áå=boundaryEnvironmentOutputfigure 7.1: Schematic representation of an open physicalsystem. The spatial structure of environmental systems isgenerally far more complex than their temporal behavior,and largely unknown. The structure does not have to beexplicitly defined for modeling the behavior.íÜÉëÉ=ÇáëÅáéäáåÉëI=ÜçïÉîÉêI=~êÉ=çÑíÉå=êÉã~êâ~Ääó=ëáãáä~êK=qÜÉ=^ofj^=E^ìíçoÉÖêÉëëáîÉ=fåíÉÖê~íÉÇ=jçîáåÖ=^îÉê~ÖÉF=íáãÉ=ëÉêáÉë=ãçÇÉäë=~êÉ=ãçëí=ïáÇÉäó=ìëÉÇI=~äíÜçìÖÜ=íÜÉêÉ=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=~=ÇáîÉêëáÑáÅ~íáçå=çÑ=ãÉíÜçÇëK=qÜÉ=~ééäáÅ~íáçå=çÑ=^ofj^=ãçÇÉäë=ÇÉîÉäçéÉÇ=ê~éáÇäó=~ÑíÉê=íÜÉ=éìÄäáÅ~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=íÉñí=Äççâ=Äó=_çñ=~åÇ=gÉåâáåë=xNVTMzK=^äíÜçìÖÜ=áí=íççâ=ëçãÉ=íáãÉ=ÄÉÑçêÉ=íÜÉ=ãÉíÜçÇë=~åÇ=éêáåÅáéäÉë=ïÉêÉ=éáÅâÉÇ=ìé=áå=íÜÉ=ÜóÇêçäçÖáÅ=ëÅáÉåÅÉëI=íÜáë=ï~ë=~ãéäó=ÅçãéÉåë~íÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=éìÄäáÅ~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=îçäìãáåçìë=Äççâ=Äó=eáéÉä=~åÇ=jÅiÉçÇ=xNVVQzK=få=íÜÉáê=ÄççâI=eáéÉä=~åÇ=jÅiÉçÇ=éêÉëÉåí=ã~åó=ÇáÑÑÉêÉåí=~ééäáÅ~íáçåëI=~ë=ïÉää=~ë=ëÉîÉê~ä=ÉñíÉåëáçåë=íç=íÜÉ=^ofj^=ãçÇÉäë=~ë=éìÄäáëÜÉÇ=Äó=_çñ=~åÇ=gÉåâáåëK=oÉä~íáîÉäó=ëáãéäÉ=Ç~í~JÄ~ëÉÇ=ãçÇÉäë=äáâÉ=íÜÉ=^ofj^=íáãÉ=ëÉêáÉë=ãçÇÉä=~êÉ=ëíáää=ïáÇÉäó=~ééäáÉÇ=áå=íÜÉ=ÉåîáêçåãÉåí~ä=ëÅáÉåÅÉëI=ÇÉëéáíÉ=íÜÉ=êáëÉ=çÑ=éÜóëáÅ~ääóJÄ~ëÉÇI=ëé~íá~ääóJÇáëíêáÄìíÉÇ=ãçÇÉäëK=^Çî~åí~ÖÉë=çÑ=íáãÉ=ëÉêáÉë=ãçÇÉäë=çîÉê=éÜóëáÅ~ääóJÄ~ëÉÇI=ÇáëíêáÄìíÉÇ=ãçÇÉäë=~êÉ=íÜÉáê=êÉä~íáîÉ=~ÅÅìê~ÅóI=É~ëÉ=çÑ=ÅçåëíêìÅíáçåI=~åÇ=ïÉääJÇÉîÉäçéÉÇ=ëí~íáëíáÅ~ä=Ä~ÅâÖêçìåÇK=qÜÉ=Ñáêëí=íïç=éçáåíë=Ñçääçï=ÇáêÉÅíäó=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=Ñ~Åí=íÜ~í=~=íáãÉ=ëÉêáÉë=ãçÇÉä=íêÉ~íë=~=éÜóëáÅ~ä=ëóëíÉã=Ñáêëíäó=~ë=~=ÚïÜçäÉÛK=qÜÉ=ÉÑÑÉÅíáîÉI=çîÉê~ää=ÄÉÜ~îáçê=çÑ=~=ëóëíÉã=~í=~=ÅÉêí~áå=äçÅ~íáçå=áë=ãçÇÉäÉÇ=ïáíÜçìí=êÉèìáêáåÖ=íÜÉ=ÉñéäáÅáí=ÇÉÑáåáíáçå=çÑ=áíë=ÉåíáêÉ=ëé~íá~ä=ëíêìÅíìêÉ=EÑáÖìêÉ=TKNFK=få=Åçåíê~ëíI=éÜóëáÅ~ääóJÄ~ëÉÇI=ÇáëíêáÄìíÉÇ=ãçÇÉäë=ëí~êí=ÄçííçãJìé=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=ëçJÅ~ääÉÇ=êÉéêÉëÉåí~íáîÉ=ÉäÉãÉåí~êó=îçäìãÉ=EobsFI=~åÇ=~äãçëí=áåÜÉêÉåíäó=áåîáíÉ=íÜÉ=áåÅäìëáçå=çÑ=~ää=ÇÉí~áä=~ÄçîÉ=íÜ~í=ëÅ~äÉK=^ë=~=ÅçåëÉèìÉåÅÉI=ëìÅÜ=ãçÇÉäë=ÖÉåÉê~ääó=êÉèìáêÉ=~=ÖêÉ~í=~ãçìåí=çÑ=Ç~í~I=ïÜáäÉ=íÜÉ=ä~êÖÉê=é~êí=çÑ=íÜÉ=ãçÇÉä=ëíáää=áë=íÜÉ=êÉëìäí=çÑ=ÅçêêÉä~íáçåëI=Éñíê~éçä~íáçåë=~åÇ=~ëëìãéíáçåëI=ïÜáÅÜ=Å~ååçí=ÄÉ=îÉêáÑáÉÇ=çê=î~äáÇ~íÉÇ=xëÉÉ=ÉKÖKI=hçåáâçï=~åÇ=_êÉÇÉÜçÉÑíI=NVVOX=lêÉëâÉë=Éí=~äKI=NVVQzK=pìÅÜ=éêçÄäÉãëI=ïÜáÅÜ=~êÉ=ãçêÉ=çê=äÉëë=áåíêáåëáÅ=íç=íÜÉ=obs=ëÅ~äÉ=~ééêç~ÅÜI=Ü~îÉ=äÉ~Ç=ëçãÉ=íç=éêçÅä~áã=íÜ~í=áí=ïáää=éêçîÉ=íç=ÄÉ=~=ÇÉ~Ç=ÉåÇ=Ñçê=ÅçãéäÉñI=ÉåîáêçåãÉåí~ä=ëóëíÉãëI=ïÜáäÉ=çíÜÉêë=ÇÉëáÖåÉÇ=~äíÉêå~íáîÉ=~ééêç~ÅÜÉë=çå=..…………………………………………………………………………………………….….