Jos_von_Asmuth_Thesis.pdf - repository

ëáåÖ=Åçåíáåìçìë=êÉëéçåëÉ=ÑìåÅíáçåë=2.5 figure a)Box−JenkinsPIRFICT22.5 figure b)Box−JenkinsPIRFICT2response (−)1.51response (−)1.510.500 100 200 300 400 500time (in days)0.500 200 400 600 800 1000time (in days)=figure 3.7: Transfer functions of a [10 1 0 1 b][30.4] ARMA TFN model and a PIRFICT modelcalibrated on the same data from piezometers 19AZL5038_1, shown in a), and 19AZW195_1 shownin b). The dotted lines denote the 95% confidence intervals.==== UT=çéÉê~íáçåë=íÜ~í=ïÉêÉ=Å~êêáÉÇ=çìí=çå=íÜÉ=Ç~í~=íç=ã~âÉ=áí=ÉèìáÇáëí~åíI=ïÜáÅÜ=íÉåÇë=íç=ëãççíÜ=ÜáÖÜJÑêÉèìÉåí=î~êá~íáçåë=çÑ=~=ëáÖå~äK=qÜáë=áë=ÅçêêçÄçê~íÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=Ñ~Åí=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=mfocf`q=ãçÇÉä=óáÉäÇë=~=ojpf=íÜ~í=áë=OKQ=ãáääáãÉíÉê=ëã~ääÉê=Ñçê=íÜÉ=ÉèìáÇáëí~åí=Ç~í~=íÜ~å=Ñçê=íÜÉ=åçåJÉèìáÇáëí~åí=Ç~í~K=eçïÉîÉêI=íÜÉ=ojpf=çÑ=íÜÉ=^oj^=ãçÇÉä=áë=çå=~îÉê~ÖÉ=QKR=ãáääáãÉíÉê=ëã~ääÉê=íÜ~å=íÜ~í=çÑ=íÜÉ=xPMKQ=PMKQz=mfocf`q=ãçÇÉä=ïÜáäÉ=íÜÉ=sojpb=çÑ=íÜÉ=^oj^=ãçÇÉä=áë=ÜáÖÜÉêK=qÜáëI=~Ö~áåI=éçáåíë=íç=çîÉêÑáííáåÖ=ÄÉÜ~îáçê=çÑ=^oj^=ãçÇÉäëK=qÜÉ=^oj^=ãçÇÉä=áë=~ÄäÉ=íç=éêçÇìÅÉ=~=äçïÉê=î~äìÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=çÄàÉÅíáîÉ=ÑìåÅíáçå=ìëáåÖ=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=Ç~í~I=Äìí=~éé~êÉåíäó=íÜÉ=ÅçêêÉä~íáçåë=ÑáííÉÇ=~êÉ=íç=ëçãÉ=ÉñíÉåí=ÅçáåÅáÇÉåí~ä=~ë=íÜÉó=~êÉ=~ÅÅçãé~åáÉÇ=Äó=~=ÜáÖÜÉê=sojpbK=tÜÉå=íÜÉ=êÉëéçåëÉ=ÑìåÅíáçåë=çÑ=ÄçíÜ=ãçÇÉäë=~êÉ=Åçãé~êÉÇI=íÜÉ=ëãççíÜ=Åçåíáåìçìë=_o=ÑìåÅíáçåë=éêçîÉ=íç=Ñáí=íÜÉ=ÖÉåÉê~ä=ëÜ~éÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ãçêÉ=áêêÉÖìä~ê=ÇáëÅêÉíÉ=íê~åëÑÉê=ÑìåÅíáçåë=ïÉää=Ñçê=~ää=éáÉòçãÉíÉêëI=áåÇáÅ~íáåÖ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=mfocf`q=ãçÇÉä=Å~å=~ÇÉèì~íÉäó=ãçÇÉä=éÜêÉ~íáÅ=ëóëíÉãë=ïáíÜ=~=êÉä~íáîÉäó=Ñ~ëíI=áåíÉêãÉÇá~íÉ=~åÇ=ëäçï=êÉëéçåëÉ=EÑáÖìêÉ=PKT~=~åÇ=Ä=~åÇ=ÑáÖìêÉ=PKRÄFK==3.3.4 A small simulation study_ÉÅ~ìëÉ=ïÉ=ïÉêÉ=åçí=~ÄäÉ=íç=éÉêÑçêã=~=ÅêçëëJî~äáÇ~íáçå=~åÇ=Å~ååçí=ÇÉíÉêãáåÉ=íÜÉ=ÚíêìÉÛ=êÉëéçåëÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=êÉ~ä=ïçêäÇ=éÜêÉ~íáÅ=ëóëíÉãëI=íÜÉêÉ=áë=çåäó=áåÇáêÉÅí=ÉîáÇÉåÅÉ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=áêêÉÖìä~ê=ëÜ~éÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=^oj^=íê~åëÑÉê=ÑìåÅíáçå=áë=íç=ëçãÉ=ÉñíÉåí=ÅçáåÅáÇÉåí~ä=çê=ÇìÉ=íç=çîÉêÑáííáåÖ=ÄÉÜ~îáçêK=få=çêÇÉê=íç=Ü~îÉ=ãçêÉ=ÇáêÉÅí=ÉîáÇÉåÅÉI=ïÉ=éÉêÑçêãÉÇ=~=ëÜçêí=ëíìÇó=áå=ïÜáÅÜ=ïÉ=ëáãìä~íÉÇ=~=ÖêçìåÇï~íÉê=äÉîÉä=ëÉêáÉë=Äó=íê~åëÑçêãáåÖ=~=Ç~áäó=ÑêÉèìÉåÅó=éêÉÅáéáí~íáçå=ëìêéäìë=ëÉêáÉë=áå=~=ëóåíÜÉíáÅ=ëóëíÉã=ïáíÜ=~=âåçïå=êÉëéçåëÉ=E~=mfff=fo=ÑìåÅíáçå=ïáíÜ= A = NRMMI= a = MKMMOI= n = NKRI= b = 0 FK=qç=íÜÉ=ëÉêáÉë=íÜìë=çÄí~áåÉÇI=ïÉ=~ÇÇÉÇ=~=êÉëáÇì~ä=ëÉêáÉë=íÜ~í=ï~ë=ÖÉåÉê~íÉÇ=Äó=ÅçåîçäìíáåÖ=~=ÚÇáëÅêÉíÉ=ïÜáíÉ=åçáëÉÛ=ëÉêáÉë=çÑ=åçêã~ääó=ÇáëíêáÄìíÉÇ=ê~åÇçã=åìãÄÉêë=ïáíÜ=~=âåçïåI=ÉñéçåÉåíá~ä=åçáëÉ=fo=ÑìåÅíáçå=Eα = =ORI= σ ν = 2.5 =Åã=çå=~=Ç~áäó=ÑêÉèìÉåÅóFK=cêçã=íÜÉ=ëÉêáÉë=íÜìë=çÄí~áåÉÇ=íÜÉ=é~ê~ãÉíÉêë=íÜ~í=ïÉ=ëÜçìäÇ=Ü~îÉ=êÉíêáÉîÉÇ=ìëáåÖ=íÜÉ=qck=ãçÇÉäë=~êÉ=âåçïå=Éñ~ÅíäóK=qÜÉ=é~ê~ãÉíÉê=Éëíáã~íÉë=çÑ=~=xNM=N=M=N=MzxPMKQz=^oj^=ãçÇÉä=~åÇ=~=mfocf`q=ãçÇÉä=~êÉ=ÇÉéáÅíÉÇ=áå=ÑáÖìêÉ=PKU=~ë=_o=ÑìåÅíáçåëI=~äçåÖ=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=íêìÉ=_o=ÑìåÅíáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=ëóåíÜÉíáÅ=KKÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁKÁK