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e-Business in the chemical, rubber and plastics industrysectors analysed, 120 in particular in comparison to service industries such as financialintermediation and retailing, where labour inputs and skill-bias play a significantly moreimportant role.4.1.3 ICT impact on labour productivity growthLabour productivity growth in the CRP industriesAn analysis of the annual labour productivity growth rates for 14 EU Member States (all ofthem members of the former EU-15) for the time period 1980-2004 121 shows that theaverage annual growth rates have been very heterogeneous across countries andperiods (see Exhibit 4.1-5). The observation period has been divided into three subperiods(1986-1995, 1995-2000 and 2000-2004) which represent the main phasesdiscussed in the literature concerning the labour productivity resurgence for the US at theaggregate level.High average sustained annual labour productivity growth is observed in a few countriessuch as Germany, Sweden, Ireland and the Netherlands; here, average annual growthrates are above 5% for the whole observation period (1980-2004) and most of therespective sub-periods (see Exhibit 4.1-5). A few countries such as Belgium and Greeceexperienced low growth rates, while most countries are in between in this respect, withconsiderable fluctuations of labour productivity growth during the three periods; somecountries experienced higher labour productivity growth rates in the earlier period (1986-1995), others in the later period. In summary, no common pattern can be observed for themanufacture of chemical, rubber and plastics products as might have been expected fromthe literature which focused on the US experience.This may have to do with a delayed convergence in the chemical industries in the EU andEurozone even after introducing the common currency. However, more homogeneousincreases in labour productivity can be expected for the years since 2004 and the nearfuture, due to the restructuring of industries inside the common market of the EU(according to locational comparative advantages). Since chemical products continue tobe important export items in international trade (see Sections 2.2 and 2.3), this wouldsignificantly contribute to the global competitiveness of the EU as a whole. ICT is playingan important part in this context by enhancing the coordination of the different globalsupply chains in the chemical industries (see Section 3.3).Labour productivity growth based on working hours can be decomposed in the twocomponents of employment change and changes in average working hours peremployee. Exhibits 4.1-6 and 4.1-7 show that only Ireland experienced persistent positiveemployment growth over the whole period 1980 until 2004. This might be attributable tothe fact that Ireland setup its chemical industries quite recently and is focussing on thoseareas with high growth perspectives. In most other countries employment shrank more orless drastically especially in those large ones with a long history in the production ofchemicals like Germany, France, the Netherlands and the UK. Growth in the chemical120 Other sectors analysed are the steel and furniture manufacturing industries, retail, transport andlogistics, and financial intermediations.121 These are the most recent data available from the EU-KLEMS dataset published in March 2007.This might change in June 2008 when an update will be released.103
e-Business in the chemical, rubber and plastics industryindustries are in most of the EU countries covered by the analysis insufficient to create oreven maintain the overall employment.During the same time on average working hours per employee were decreasing with fewexceptions in most countries. Only in Italy with 1.6%, Denmark and Luxembourg with0.7% working hours per employee increased significantly during the period 1995-2000.Furthermore Sweden had positive increases in average working hours in the period 1980-1995 of 1% annually. Labour productivity growth was therefore associated in mostcountries on average by labour shake out and decreasing working hours per employee.Therefore economic development in the chemical industries is on average overall laboursaving. The growth in the chemicals industries is insufficient to exceed the labourproductivity growth to create by this additional employment opportunities. However,trends in diminishing average working hours per employee are quite moderate. It mighteven be that since 2004 in many countries the trend to reduce average working hourshas reversed since cost pressures from international competition encourage themanagement to negotiate longer working hours contracts with the trade unions tomaintain the competitiveness of the location where chemical plants currently are situated.In Germany there evidence that the long-term trend to reduce average working hours peremployee has already been reversed. Similar developments are underway in Franceunder the new government.Exhibit 4.1-5: Labour productivity growth in the CRP industries (NACE 24+25), 1986-2004 (annual averagegrowth rates in %)15,014,710,05,00,05,88,10,27,74,82,60.210,60,67,55,53,2 2,92,30,05,94,54,83,22,30.04,87,0-0,20,93,72,08,45,80.04,55,0-0.1-0,43,66,38,57,01,94,1-5,0-4,4AT BE DK ES FR DE EL IE IT LU NL PT SE UK1980-1995 1995-2000 2000-2004Source: EUKLEMS data base, GGDC; own calculation.104
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