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Armed and insecure

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commercial <strong>and</strong> predatory ends”. 749 In Transparency International’s 2015 Government Defence<br />

Anti-Corruption Index, of the countries analysed in this report Kenya has the ‘best’ scores with<br />

merely a ‘high’ risk of corruption, while Ethiopia <strong>and</strong> Ug<strong>and</strong>a are deemed ‘very high’ <strong>and</strong> Eritrea,<br />

Somalia, South Sudan <strong>and</strong> Sudan are considered ‘critical’. 750<br />

In the absence of meaningful reforms in the areas of political representation <strong>and</strong> electoral<br />

process, latent conflicts in the Horn of Africa could become increasingly violent. Proper channels<br />

for political debate <strong>and</strong> democratic alternation in power must be nourished <strong>and</strong> protected.<br />

In fact, “lower intensity conflict is becoming more prevalent <strong>and</strong> there has been a rise in social<br />

conflict, especially anti-government violence, since 2011, combined with a rise in the level of<br />

protests <strong>and</strong> riots. Elections-related violence has also increased across Africa, even as the<br />

push for democratisation <strong>and</strong> multi-party elections has brought about significant improvement in<br />

accountability”. 751<br />

Based on these conclusions, we offer the following recommendations to reduce levels of conflict<br />

<strong>and</strong> armed violence in the Horn of Africa.<br />

Recommendations<br />

To the United Nations <strong>and</strong> regional organisations<br />

! Establish stricter instruments preventing arms transfers to <strong>and</strong> within the region.<br />

! IGAD <strong>and</strong>/or RECSA should strengthen <strong>and</strong> extend the goals <strong>and</strong> impact of the<br />

Nairobi Protocol.<br />

! Promote <strong>and</strong> support the universalisation <strong>and</strong> implementation of disarmament<br />

<strong>and</strong> arms control instruments, such as the Arms Trade Treaty, the Mine Ban<br />

Treaty, the Convention on Cluster Munitions <strong>and</strong> the Convention on<br />

Conventional Weapons.<br />

! Explore confidence-building measures, through IGAD <strong>and</strong>/or the African Union,<br />

on issues such as reporting on military spending <strong>and</strong> arms transfers, reducing<br />

military spending, arms transfers moratoriums, use of armed forces in<br />

neighbouring countries, border disputes, <strong>and</strong> other security-related issues that<br />

would benefit from multilateral support.<br />

749 War is Boring, ‘Africa’s Defense Industry Is the Most Corrupt in the World’, February 2016, https://warisboring.com/africa-s-defense-industry-is-the-mostcorrupt-in-the-world-30669fdb83a2<br />

- .oo67f8dut.<br />

750 No score was calculated for Djibouti. The index measures the risk of corruption in national defence <strong>and</strong> security establishments worldwide. The 2015 report<br />

notes that “increases in defence spending are not necessarily enhancing state security. Too often procurement decisions are taken with little reference to strategic<br />

requirements, military effectiveness is eroded by poor controls on personnel, while forces are repurposed for commercial ends”. https://government.defenceindex.<br />

org/downloads/docs/GI-Africa-results-web.pdf.<br />

751 ISS Africa, ‘Africa needs more than just the silencing of guns’, June 2014, www.issafrica.org/iss-today/africa-needs-more-than-just-the-silencing-of-guns.<br />

164 PAX ! <strong>Armed</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>insecure</strong>

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