Armed and insecure
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commercial <strong>and</strong> predatory ends”. 749 In Transparency International’s 2015 Government Defence<br />
Anti-Corruption Index, of the countries analysed in this report Kenya has the ‘best’ scores with<br />
merely a ‘high’ risk of corruption, while Ethiopia <strong>and</strong> Ug<strong>and</strong>a are deemed ‘very high’ <strong>and</strong> Eritrea,<br />
Somalia, South Sudan <strong>and</strong> Sudan are considered ‘critical’. 750<br />
In the absence of meaningful reforms in the areas of political representation <strong>and</strong> electoral<br />
process, latent conflicts in the Horn of Africa could become increasingly violent. Proper channels<br />
for political debate <strong>and</strong> democratic alternation in power must be nourished <strong>and</strong> protected.<br />
In fact, “lower intensity conflict is becoming more prevalent <strong>and</strong> there has been a rise in social<br />
conflict, especially anti-government violence, since 2011, combined with a rise in the level of<br />
protests <strong>and</strong> riots. Elections-related violence has also increased across Africa, even as the<br />
push for democratisation <strong>and</strong> multi-party elections has brought about significant improvement in<br />
accountability”. 751<br />
Based on these conclusions, we offer the following recommendations to reduce levels of conflict<br />
<strong>and</strong> armed violence in the Horn of Africa.<br />
Recommendations<br />
To the United Nations <strong>and</strong> regional organisations<br />
! Establish stricter instruments preventing arms transfers to <strong>and</strong> within the region.<br />
! IGAD <strong>and</strong>/or RECSA should strengthen <strong>and</strong> extend the goals <strong>and</strong> impact of the<br />
Nairobi Protocol.<br />
! Promote <strong>and</strong> support the universalisation <strong>and</strong> implementation of disarmament<br />
<strong>and</strong> arms control instruments, such as the Arms Trade Treaty, the Mine Ban<br />
Treaty, the Convention on Cluster Munitions <strong>and</strong> the Convention on<br />
Conventional Weapons.<br />
! Explore confidence-building measures, through IGAD <strong>and</strong>/or the African Union,<br />
on issues such as reporting on military spending <strong>and</strong> arms transfers, reducing<br />
military spending, arms transfers moratoriums, use of armed forces in<br />
neighbouring countries, border disputes, <strong>and</strong> other security-related issues that<br />
would benefit from multilateral support.<br />
749 War is Boring, ‘Africa’s Defense Industry Is the Most Corrupt in the World’, February 2016, https://warisboring.com/africa-s-defense-industry-is-the-mostcorrupt-in-the-world-30669fdb83a2<br />
- .oo67f8dut.<br />
750 No score was calculated for Djibouti. The index measures the risk of corruption in national defence <strong>and</strong> security establishments worldwide. The 2015 report<br />
notes that “increases in defence spending are not necessarily enhancing state security. Too often procurement decisions are taken with little reference to strategic<br />
requirements, military effectiveness is eroded by poor controls on personnel, while forces are repurposed for commercial ends”. https://government.defenceindex.<br />
org/downloads/docs/GI-Africa-results-web.pdf.<br />
751 ISS Africa, ‘Africa needs more than just the silencing of guns’, June 2014, www.issafrica.org/iss-today/africa-needs-more-than-just-the-silencing-of-guns.<br />
164 PAX ! <strong>Armed</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>insecure</strong>