Armed and insecure

the secession and autonomy efforts (Oromo, Ogaden) and the struggle with the opposition for
national power. 417 Tensions with the opposition, ongoing since 2005, increased in 2015, and
violence in the Oromia region erupted in late 2015. 418 These internal struggles reflect, and
catalysed, the “asymmetrical federation” created by the EPRDF with “nine ethnic-based regional
states and two federally administered city-states”, a process that according to one analysis “has
not dampened conflict, but rather increased competition among groups that vie over land and
natural resources, as well as administrative boundaries and government budgets”. 419
Among those with grievances unresolved by the ‘artificial’ ethnic federalism are those
represented by the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF)—an ethnic Somali group which
has been active for over two decades and gained notoriety through its 2007 attack on an oilfield
that killed 65 Ethiopian soldiers and nine Chinese employees—and the Oromo Liberation
Front (OLF), fighting in the name of greater autonomy for the nation’s largest ethnic group. 420
Of course, as is often the case in Ethiopia, these fractures are not purely internal. As of 2012,
the UN Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea “obtained credible information, and in some
cases firm evidence, concerning Eritrean support to the following Ethiopian armed opposition
groups: ONLF, OLF, the Tigrayan People’s Democratic Movement (TPDM), Gimbot Sabat and
ARDUF”—even if today most of these groups are severely weakened. 421
Beyond their motivations and support, these armed groups have been key actors in most of
Ethiopia’s major armed violence incidents over the last several years, particularly in instances of
political violence. Of the more than 650 incidents included in the ACLED (Armed Conflict Location
& Event Data project) database for the period from 2010 to the end of 2014, the vast majority
can be described as clashes between military forces and non-state armed actors, particularly the
Ogaden and Oromo rebels. 422 Dozens of these clashes have reported casualty counts in that are
enormous, often from a dozen up to 100 deaths. However, reports often note that the armed forces
or rebels ‘claim’ a certain number of opponent deaths, without any independent substantiation or
evidence; many reports from the rebel side come from clearly partial and supportive media.
Notwithstanding that caveat, several incidents over the last five years have resulted in independent
and multiple reports. The year 2010 saw numerous violent clashes, particularly between government
forces and the ONLF; one bloody clash in September reportedly claimed the lives of 123 rebels
in Ethiopia’s Somali region. 423 These dynamics remained in force in 2011, when repeated clashes
led the rebels to accuse the army of purported “ethnic cleansing” after several civilian deaths,
417 “Egypt sees the Ethiopian project as an existential threat.” Foreign Policy, ‘Troubled Waters’, March 2014, http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/03/06/troubled-waters/.
418 Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research, ‘Conflict barometer 2015’, 2016, www.hiik.de/en/konfliktbarometer/pdf/ConflictBarometer_2015.pdf , p. 63.
419 ICG, ‘Ethiopia: Ethnic Federalism and Its Discontents’, September 2009, www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/horn-of-africa/ethiopia-eritrea/153-ethiopiaethnic-federalism-and-its-discontents.aspx.
420 The Guardian, ‘Ethnic Somali rebels kill 74 at Chinese oilfield in Ethiopia’, April 2007, www.theguardian.com/world/2007/apr/25/ethiopia.
421 UNSC, S/2012/545, July 2012, www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/Somalia%20S%202012%20545.pdf.
422 ACLED, ‘Africa Data’, www.acleddata.com/data/.
423 BBC, ‘Ethiopia ‘kills 123’ ONLF rebels and surrounds 90 more’, September 2010, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-11315967.
98 PAX ! Armed and insecure