WWRR Vol.2.015

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Exhibit 22: Forecasts of Key Macro Variables Years Ending March 31 F2015 F2016 F2017 F2018 F2019E F2020E F2021E National Income GDP (at current mkt prices) Rs bn 124680 137640 152537 167731 188709 211342 236653 GDP (US$ bn) 2039 2104 2276 2602 2678 3078 3559 Growth rates GVA - By Industry Gross Value Added (F2012=100) 7.2% 8.1% 7.1% 6.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.4% Agriculture and Allied activities (incl. mining) 1.2% 2.6% 7.4% 3.3% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6% Manufacturing, Constn, Electricity 6.7% 9.4% 6.1% 5.8% 8.6% 7.9% 8.0% Services 9.8% 9.6% 7.5% 7.9% 8.2% 8.4% 8.3% GDP- By Expenditure Gross domestic product at Market Price (F2012=100) 7.4% 8.2% 7.1% 6.7% 7.6% 7.6% 7.5% Interest rates Repo Rate (year-end) 7.50% 6.75% 6.25% 6.00% 6.50% 7.25% 7.50% Prices Consumer price index (avg y-y increase)# 6.0% 4.9% 4.5% 3.6% 3.9% 4.3% 4.6% Wholesale price index (avg y-y increase)# 1.3% -3.6% 1.8% 3.0% 5.0% 4.1% 4.0% External sector Current account Exports (US$ bn) 317 266 280 309 340 364 387 Imports (US$ bn) 461 396 393 469 532 565 603 Trade balance (US$ bn) -145 -130 -112 -160 -192 -201 -216 Invisibles, net (US$ bn) 118 108 98 111 124 131 140 Current account balance (US$ bn) -27 -22 -14 -49 -68 -70 -77 Current account Balance as a % of GDP -1.3% -1.1% -0.6% -1.9% -2.5% -2.3% -2.2% Capital account Total capital (net) (US$ bn) 89 41 36 91 40 75 78 Total capital (net) as % of GDP 4.4% 2.0% 1.6% 3.5% 1.5% 2.4% 2.2% -Net FDI 31 36 36 30 29 34 34 Debt creating capital inflows (US$ bn) 16 9 -7 39 22 33 36 Exchange rate Average exchange rate (USD/INR) 61.1 65.4 67.0 64.5 70.5 68.7 66.5 Year end exchange rate (USD/INR) 62.5 66.9 65.8 65.0 71.0 67.5 66.0 External debt External debt (US$ bn) 475 485 471 529 556 614 680 External debt as a percentage of GDP 23.3% 23.1% 20.7% 20.3% 20.8% 19.9% 19.1% Fiscal deficit (As % of GDP) Fiscal deficit (As % of GDP) -----Central government 4.1% 3.9% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.3% 3.1% -----State government 2.6% 3.1% 3.5% 3.1% 2.9% 2.8% 2.6% -----Consolidated Deficit 6.7% 6.9% 7.0% 6.6% 6.4% 6.1% 5.7% Source:CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research Estimates. "E" Morgan Stanley Research Estimates 11
2019 Global Economic and Market Outlook The Year of Living Dangerously 4 December 2018 This publication has been prepared by Sales and Trading personnel at Macquarie and is not a product of the Macquarie Research Department. Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited Ric Deverell +61 2 8232 4307 ric.deverell@macquarie.com As 2018 draws to a close, the market is focused on the downside risks to global growth, with Europe soft, China slowing and early signs that support from US fiscal policy has peaked. However, while the consensus is worried about further damage from a range of political disturbances including the “trade war”, Brexit and Italy, we expect global growth to remain relatively resilient, with the pace of expansion remaining above average in 2019. And while ongoing political events are likely to see volatility remain elevated, for those prepared to live dangerously, risk asset returns in 2019 could exceed currently depressed expectations. While the interaction between politics and markets remains a “known unknown”, we feel that the bigger risk is that by the end of 2019 US inflation begins to slowly pick up, with the 2020 Fed possibly faced with weaker growth and higher inflation – a mild version of the dreaded STAGFLATION. Sales and Trading personnel at Macquarie are not independent and, therefore, the information herein may be subject to certain conflicts of interest, and may have been shared with other parties prior to publication. Note: To the extent Macquarie Research is referenced, it is identified as such and the associated disclaimers are included in the published research report. Please refer to the important disclosures www.macquarie.com/salesandtradingdisclaimer. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
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