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Steady Growth Expected in F2020<br />
We lower our F2020 growth forecast to 7.6% from 7.7% as we take into account tighter<br />
financial conditions at the margin and slight moderation in global growth. However, we<br />
look for growth to remain steady compared to our F2019 estimate of 7.6% (unchanged).<br />
We build in a steady growth path as policy measures remain supportive of improving the<br />
productivity dynamic without stoking macro stability risks and external funding<br />
pressures are expected to recede in 2019. For F2021, we estimate GDP growth at 7.5%.<br />
Exhibit 6: GDP Forecasts: Old vs New<br />
GDP, YoY(%) Old New<br />
FY Basis (Year ending March)<br />
F2019E 7.6% 7.6%<br />
F2020E 7.7% 7.6%<br />
F2021E NA 7.5%<br />
CY Basis (Year ending December)<br />
2018E 7.7% 7.7%<br />
2019E 7.7% 7.6%<br />
2020E NA 7.5%<br />
Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimates<br />
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