Annual Report 2008 - Office National des Hydrocarbures et des Mines

INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT & NATIONAL SITUATION
The financial and economic crises that marked
the year 2008 have led to historical increases in
oil prices and to reduced consumption.
As for mining products, 2008 was characterized
by an unprecedented reversal of situation.
The investments in oil exploration and mining
continued to grow significantly.
Morocco has implemented a new strategy with
a view to secure its energy supplies.
6
International environment
The world economy : from financial to
economic crisis
After an exceptional year 2007 on several
respects, 2008 is viewed as the year that
witnessed the worst financial crisis since the
1928 depression. The premonitory symptoms
started in August 2007 in the United States
with the subprime mortgage crisis. The financial
crisis expanded progressively to Europe and
Japan thus causing the collapse of the main
stock exchanges and compelling the main
industrialized countries to intervene by injecting
liquid assets by billions of dollars with an eye to
save their banking system.
The financial crisis has had negative impacts on
the real economy with the entry into recession
of the main industrialized economies. The world
Gross Domestic Product growth passed from
5.2 % in 2007 to 3.4 % in 2008 according to
the International Monetary Funds which expects
a regression of 0.5 % for 2009.
Office National des Hydrocarbures et des Mines
International oil environment : a more and
more unstable market
From 50 dollar/b in January 2007, crude oil
prices rose to 100 dollars in January 2008 to
reach a record level of 147 dollars in July 2008.
As a result of the slowdown of the world activity,
crude oil prices fell back to their level of January
2007.
If demand in emerging countries like China,
India and Brazil and speculation were the main
causes for the oil price surges throughout the
last three years, the drop in oil prices, started in
the summer of 2008, reflects the fall off in world
oil demand following the slowdown of economic
activity in the large industrialized countries which
expanded to the rest of the world. This has led
the International Energy Agency (IEA) to revise
its world oil consumption forecasts downwards
for 2008 which are estimated at 86.2 million
b/d.
Despite this collapse in oil prices, the world
enters an era of expensive oil which will
remain, however, marked by volatile prices
and intermittent unbalanced markets. If
the investments required for strengthening
infrastructures, increasing production capacities
and providing against the decline in reserves by
new discoveries are not implemented from now
on to meet the demand that will grow as soon
as revival comes back, the world will face new
oil crises.
In the upstream oil sector, world E&P investment
rose by 19 % in 2008, and should settle in 2009,
according to Institut Français de Pétrole (IFP).