SSG No 20 - Shipgaz

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MARKET REPORTS Rates and fixtures week 42 Shortsea dry bulk market report Baltic. The Baltic market continues to soar as grain and steels in particular have taken a lot of the available tonnage out of the region over the past weeks. Charterers have struggled hard to attract offers both for scrap and grains from the Baltic states to ARAG and French Bay with EUR 27– 28 obtained this week for 3,000 mt wheat German Baltic/Irish Sea. Smaller ships are also seeing brisk activity with movements of general cargo and projects from Poland and Denmark to Norway with going rates in region of EUR 30,000 obtained for Szczecin to Bergen area. Activity level: Firm Scandinavia. Charterers are struggling harder to cover their orders both along the coast of Norway and out of Sweden/ Denmark. Scrap cargoes in particular have proven more or less impossible to fix without accepting “silly rates”. 5,000 mt of scrap from SC Sweden to S.Spain is paying EUR 39–40 p/mt now compared to EUR 26 earlier this autumn while brokers have been unable to find cover for 3,000 mt of scrap from SC Norway to ARAG for over two weeks now. Activity level: Firm UK/Continent. The market continues to soar on the Continent with good output of agri products, minerals and fertilizers from ARAG and the UK Ships in all sizes are in demand, but still there have been several spot units quoted off ARAG and in French Bay this week indicating that the market is somewhat more complex. 4,000 mt wheat from French Bay to Portugal is paying in region of EUR 16–17 while going rate for 3,000 mt wheat from ECUK to Irish Sea remains in region of GBP 13 p/mt. Bun- earning estimates past 12 months EUR/day ■ 1,000–1,500 DWT ■ 1,500–2,000 DWT ■ 2,000–3,000 DWT ■ 3,000–4,000 DWT ■ 6,000–7,000 DWT 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 45 50 kers prices have pushed through the USD 750 p/mt mark delivered in ARAG this week adding further pressure on rates in coming weeks. Activity level: Firm Mediterranean. Activity in Western Mediterranean has been patchier this week as Charterers have been trying to hold back on rates after a few weeks with significant gains. Grain orders from S.France in particular have remained unfixed for days while fertilizer brokers have struggled to find owners willing to consider EUR 16–17 p/mt for 3,000 mt parcels from Tunisia to Span Med. Eastern Med is still seeing very tight tonnage supply with owners being very bullish. 5,000 tonners have been offered USD 35 p/mt for Black Sea to Italy while Span have been paying close to USD 50 according to brokers. Activity level: Firm Fixtures – 1,000 mt scrap SC Sweden/Bergen fixed EUYR 23,000 lump sum. – 1,600 mt aggregates WC Norway/Hamburg fixed EUR 19.50 p/mt. – 3,500 mt agri prod 2 port ARAG/Trondheim fixed EUR 21 p/mt. – 1,000 mt steel Klaipeda/2 port N.Norway fixed EUR 55,000 lump sum. norbroker shipping & trading as, flekkefjord, norway 82 SCANDINAVIAN SHIPPING GAZETTE • OCTOBER 26, 2007 1 5 10 earningS eStiMateS on t/C BaSiS per day (Modern, Box) Size Week 42 Week 41 1,250 DWT EUR 2,000 EUR 1,950 1,750 DWT EUR 2,150 EUR 2,100 2,500 DWT EUR 2,850 EUR 2,800 3,500 DWT EUR 4,100 EUR 3,900 6,500 DWT EUR 5,200 EUR 5,100 15 20 25 30 MarKet SnapShotS 35 Week 40 Week 42 Week 41 Brent USD 83.35 USD 80.02 MGO Rotterdam USD 716.00 USD 682.50 IFO180 Rotterdam USD 451.00 USD 413.50 25,000 shipping professionals read this ad. What do you want to tell them? Advertise in The Scandinavian Shipping Gazette! (www.shipgaz.com for details and prices)
Wet – scrapping old aframax tonnage November stems saw aframax freight firm quite a bit into the second half of October as a temporary shortage of spot tonnage developed for relatively early delivery. Good demand forced rates trough WS 100 to reach WS 120 in both the North Sea and the Baltic. Even so, freight is lower than in the second half of September when it reached this autumn’s peak of WS 150 for the North Sea and WS 130 for 100,000 tonnes out of Primorsk. Fundamentals have not changed much in the past month characterised by both too much tonnage and too meagre demand. Therefore the aframax has for all intent and purpose remained in the doldrums since mid-year, despite the one peak period. Analysts like to call it freight volatility. The one positive aspect of this development is that owners might send single-skin vessels to the breakers. Scrap prices ought to tempting at around USD 500 per lightweight ton. At least it should be more tempting than continued trading at dismal freight levels. In our June report we noted, When front haul rates for capesize tonnage move close to USD 230,000 per day, as it did from Continent to the Far East towards the middle of October, we can safely say we have a good dry bulk market. Mind you, the capesize market has since consolidated and fallen back a little. One wonders if a peak was reached by mid-October and that this is a far as the market will go. Confidence, for what it is worth at this stage, remains solid. Another measure of the confidence in the cape market was that Chinese charterers paid USD 155,000 per day for a 174,000 tonner for 12 months. Even though the Far Eastern market remained firm, while the Atlantic fell a little, the transatlantic round voyage still stood at USD 177,000 per day. While the capesize tonnage in the Atlantic consolidated, the Atlantic panamax continued ever upwards to new heights. Such is the market that an increase of USD 4,500 per day to close to USD 85,000 per day on the transatlantic round voyage made a leading broker say that the pace of the increase “aframax freight nearly halved”. Freight has not really recovered since then. Demand for suezmax tonnage also picked up during the period covered, but made little or no impact on the freight level. MR (Medium Range) freight for transatlantic business westbound has firmed lately in panamax freight had slowed down. The equivalent Far East round voyage was close to USD 92,000 per day and as much as USD 95,000 per day was also paid for an Australian round voyage. In the handy/handymax market the rate from the US Gulf to the Continent, which MARKET REPORTS and was just going through WS 200 for the first time since the middle of August. MR freight has, in fact firmed steadily since the beginning of October. The last time the rate went to WS 200 it fell back quit sharply to WS 155 and remained between WS 155 and WS 170 for a good many weeks. Wet bulk freight development Worldscale ■ Suezmax North Sea–TA ■ Aframax NS– UKCont ■ Aframax Primorsk–UKCont ■ Clean MR UKCont–TA ■ Clean Baltic–UKCont Dry – dry bulk at dizzy heights 400 300 200 100 0 180,000 150,000 120,000 90,000 60,000 30,000 0 Jan ’06 Apr ’06 has been firm for some considerable time, was coming ever closer to USD 100,000 per day. Short period fixtures were concluded at USD 77,000 per day for handymax tonnage, while the transatlantic round voyage was closing on USD 72,000 per day. petter arentz SCANDINAVIAN SHIPPING GAZETTE • OCTOBER 26, 2007 83 Jul ’06 Oct ’06 Jan ’07 Apr ’07 Jul ’07 Oct ’07 Source: SSG, October 18, 2007 Dry bulk freight development Atlantic round voyage,USD/day ■ Capesize ■ Panamax ■ Handymax Jan ’06 Apr ’06 Jul ’06 Oct ’06 Jan ’07 Apr '07 Jul ’07 Oct ’07 Source: Fearnleys/SSG, October 18, 2007
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SSG No 20 - Shipgaz

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