TCAR - Typhoon Committee

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268 ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Review 2009 TCP REGIONAL BODIES APPENDIX I RA IV HURRICANE COMMITTEE RA V TROPICAL CYCLONE COMMITTEE FOR THE S. PACIFIC AND S.E. INDIAN OCEAN (26 Members) (17 Members) RA I TROPICAL CYCLONE COMMITTEE FOR THE WMO/ESCAP PANEL ON TROPICAL CYCLONES S.W. INDIAN OCEAN (15 Members) (8 Members) ESCAP/WMO TYPHOON COMMITTEE (14 Members) AUSTRALIA COOK ISLANDS FIJI@ FRENCH POLYNESIA* INDONESIA KIRIBATI MICRONESIA NEW CALEDONIA* NEW ZEALAND NIUE PAPUA NEW GUINEA SAMOA SOLOMON ISLANDS TONGA UNITED KINGDOM USA # VANUATU ANTIGUA & BARBUDA BAHAMAS BARBADOS BELIZE BRITISH CARIBBEAN TERRITORIES* CANADA COLOMBIA COSTA RICA CUBA DOMINICA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EL SALVADOR FRANCE GUATEMALA HAITI HONDURAS JAMAICA MEXICO NETH. ANTILLES AND ARUBA* NICARAGUA PANAMA ST. LUCIA TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO UK USA@ VENEZUELA BOTSWANA COMOROS FRANCE@ KENYA LESOTHO MADAGASCAR MALAWI MAURITIUS MOZAMBIQUE NAMIBIA REP. OF SOUTH AFRICA SEYCHELLES SWAZILAND UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA ZIMBABWE BANGLADESH INDIA@ MALDIVES MYANMAR OMAN PAKISTAN SRI LANKA THAILAND CAMBODIA CHINA DEM. PEOPLE’S REP. OF KOREA HONG KONG, CHINA* JAPAN@ LAO PDR MACAO, CHINA* MALAYSIA PHILIPPINES REPUBLIC OF KOREA SINGAPORE THAILAND USA VIET NAM, SOCIALIST REPUBLIC OF Non-Members of WMO (6): - EAST TIMOR - MARSHALL ISLANDS - NAURU - PALAU - TOKELAU - TUVALU @ RSMC Nadi - Tropical Cyclone Centre # RSMC Honolulu - Hurricane Centre @ RSMC Miami - Hurricane Centre @ RSMC La Réunion - Tropical Cyclone Centre @ RSMC-Tropical Cyclones-New Delhi @ RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center * Member Territory
Abstract TCAR CHAPTER 5 - RESEARCH FELLOWSHIP TECHNICAL REPORT RESEARCH FELLOWSHIP TECHNICAL REPORT In studying the performance of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)’s ensemble prediction system (EPS) in the prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity, it was found that the simple ensemble mean forecasts demonstrated skills in both short and medium range.However, the extent of intensity change as predicted by the EPS was in general smaller than observed. A procedure based on an artificial neural network (ANN) to calibrate the simple ensemble mean of EPS forecasts is presented in this paper.The procedure successfully reduced TC intensity forecast error in the first 120 hours by more than 50% and 20% respectively in terms of the root mean square errors of minimum pressure and maximum wind at the TC centre. Another procedure to post-process the probability forecast of TC intensity category, based on the rank histogram calibration method, is also presented. Results showed that the procedure could improve both the resolution and reliability of the forecasts. However, its benefit when compared with forecasts derived directly from the ANN-calibrated intensities was found to be only marginal. 1. Introduction Use of the JMA Ensemble Prediction System for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting The prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity remains a challenge despite advances in numerical weather prediction (NWP) capability.Currently, the key methods in use are statistical models based primarily on climatology, persistence, and synopticenvironmental parameters (DeMaria and Kaplan, Chen Pei-yan 1 and Chan Sai-tick 2 Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, China Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, China 1994, 1999; Fitzpatrick, 1997; DeMaria et al., 2005; Knaff et al., 2003, 2005). For more effective applications of NWP-based guidance in operational weather forecasting, the ensemble technique is becoming increasingly popular such as in the prediction of precipitation and temperature.However, in terms of TC forecasting, the focus is still very much on track and motion prediction.So far, only Weber (2005) has presented a probabilistic prediction of TC intensity using a multimodel ensemble approach. In this study, we assess the performance of TC intensity forecasts obtained from the One-week Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), and develop procedures to calibrate the deterministic and probability forecasts derived from the system.In summary, the JMA EPS is a low-resolution version of the JMA’s Global Spectral Model (GSM) bearing the same dynamical framework and physical processes as GSM except for the horizontal resolution.It runs up to 9 days ahead for medium-range forecasting. The ensemble size including the control run is 25 (expanded to 51 in 2006). The system specifications are as shown Table 1.More details can be found in Japan Meteorological Agency (2002).Under a cooperative research arrangement set up in 2004, the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) started receiving on a regular basis from JMA the TC position and intensity predictions from all members of the EPS to study their utilization and performance. Table 1 -Specifications of JMA’s One-week EPS EPS model JMA global spectral model 2009 269
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ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee KUJIRAI
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CONTENTS ESCAP, WMO and the ESCAP/W
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Chapter 4 WMO TC NEWS TCAR ESCAP, W
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ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR
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TYPHOON COMMITTEE (2009) Chairman M
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FOREWORD The ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Comm
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Introduction The Typhoon Committee
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I.I. Summary of progress in Key Res
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Table of Comparison data reported f
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- Heavy rain with speed winds 10-15
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Co-operate with local community org
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2. Progress on Key Result Area 2: M
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on web. The module outcomes are sti
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Strategic Plan and progress on the
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Fig. 13: 850hPa Wind and Radar Echo
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points are related tightly to the d
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eyewall and that the next maximum r
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the degree of similarity. According
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Advanced training seminar on theory
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HONG KONG, CHINA 1. Progress on Key
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(b) Figure 12Hong Kong Observatory
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and analyzed later.When the situati
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in Localized Systems) nowcasting sy
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JAPAN 1. Progress on Key Result Are
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Figure 9 Technical assistance team
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Figure 13 Removal process of a land
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TCAR CHAPTER 1 - TYPHOON COMMITTEE
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Reporting on intermediate results i
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JMA for issuing weather warnings an
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approximately 60 km horizontally an
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-2. Promotion of Countermeasures fo
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1. Monitoring and forecasting of wa
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Figure 33 Storm surge observation a
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Singapore d-1. Ninth Typhoon Commit
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MACAO, CHINA 1. Progress on Key Res
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The power company continued to impr
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community associations visited the
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f. Identified Opportunities/Challen
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Develop expertise in writing simple
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2.3 Improved Typhoon-related Disast
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the theme of the World Health Day o
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strategic locations to enable emerg
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visits to the project sites were un
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Please refer to Key Result Area 1(c
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particularly in the Magat River Bas
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. Hydrological Achievements/Results
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Climate Analysis Using Reanalysis D
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s Fig. 9. Flood damage in urban are
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Fig. 13. Establishment of user-tail
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Fig. 17. Map of the Four Rivers Pro
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Development of System for Disaster
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2. Progress on Key Result Area 2: M
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will be used to establish more effi
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(5 years), the Philippines, and Hon
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Fig. 31. Expert Mission in Da Nang
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Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique
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TCAR CHAPTER 1 - TYPHOON COMMITTEE
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Fig. 39. Impact of IASI data in tro
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eview and handling process is neces
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One of the most important training
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Participants from Korea gave the fo
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SINGAPORE II. Summary of progress i
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d. Research, Training, and Other Ac
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THAILAND 1 Progress on Key Result A
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1) Identify Members’ key agencies
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forecast on 64 bits LINUX parallel
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organization to operate the disaste
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Centre to design “Mr. Disaster Wa
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USA II. Summary of Progress in Key
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of Honolulu Hawaii and Cabinet. The
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· In-house seminars. WFO Guam held
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· Mr. Roger Edson 3232 Hueneme Roa
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e. Regional Cooperation Achievement
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f. Identified Opportunities/Challen
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Tool bar · Developing the distribu
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Tel: (84-4) 3 8 256 278, Fax: (+84-
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1.2 TYPHOON COMMITTEE SECRETARIAT (
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Seventh International Workshop on T
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2.1 REPORT ON INDIVIDUAL TROPICAL C
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on that day. Koppu intensified into
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TCAR CHAPTER 2 - TROPICAL CYCLONES
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TCAR CHAPTER 2 - TROPICAL CYCLONES
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2.2.2 CHAN-HOM (0902) 2 - 13 June T
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2.2.4 NANGKA (0904) 22 - 27 June TC
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2.2.6 MOLAVE (0906) 15 July - 19 Ju
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2.2.8 MORAKOT (0908) 24 July - 01 A
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2.2.10 VAMCO (0910) 16 August - 26
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2.2.12 DUJUAN (0912) 2 September -
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2.2.14 CHOI-WAN (0914) 12 - 21 Sept
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2.2.16 KETSANA (0916) 25 September-
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2.2.18 MELOR (0918) 29 September -
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2.2.20 LUPIT (0920) 14 - 31 October
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2.2.22 NIDA (0922) 21 November - 3
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TCAR CHAPTER 3 - CONTRIBUTED PAPERS
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Page 261 and 262: 4.1 Introduction TCAR CHAPTER 4 - W
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TCAR - Typhoon Committee

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