TCAR - Typhoon Committee

288
ESCAP/WMO
Typhoon Committee Annual Review 2009
Date and time 00 +12h +24h +36h +48h +60h +72h
2007110312 0.0 79.1 122.8 88.6 54.6 47.8 180.7
2007110318 10.6 91.5 73.9 63.4 33.7 148.0 250.3
2007110400 15.4 66.7 49.3 22.2 67.2 176.1 265.1
2007110406 10.6 11.1 15.3 64.5 122.8 176.8 217.6
2007110412 11.1 24.6 89.0 57.3 130.1 229.6 -
2007110418 10.6 31.7 175.0 229.1 358.8 495.8 -
2007110500 15.4 47.9 101.3 218.5 299.3 - -
2007110506 11.1 110.9 153.4 262.3 307.4 - -
2007110512 0.0 70.0 185.6 243.0 - - -
2007110518 0.0 111.2 201.8 284.8 - - -
2007110600 0.0 102.3 146.4 - - -
2007110606 11.1 76.7 193.8 - - - -
2007110612 15.3 87.3 - - - - -
2007110618 11.1 154.4 - - - - -
2007110700 11.1 - - -
2007110706 15.3 - - - -
2007110806 0.0 102.3 159.0 - - - -
2007110812 0.0 100.6 - - - - -
2007110818 11.1 281.3 - - - - -
2007110900 0.0 -
FCST TIMES 20 17 14 10 8 6 4
Average (km) 8.0 91.2 128.2 153.4 171.7 171.7 228.4
Min (km) 0.0 11.1 15.3 22.2 33.3 47.8 180.7
Max (km) 15.4 281.3 201.8 284.8 358.3 495.8 265.1
4.4. TY 0725 HAGIBIS
HAGIBIS formed as TD at 18 UTC 18/11/2007.
Moving westward it crossed southern part of
Philippines into the South China Sea and reached
TS intensity at 18 UTC 20/11/2007. Turning to
WNW it strengthened into a TY and reached peak
intensity with Vmax of 70 kts and central Pmin
of 970 hPa at 06 UTC 22/11/2007. Approaching
the Southern Vietnam coastline HAGIBIS slowed
down its speed and was stationary near the coast
line for one day. Then it abruptly turned back
eastward of Vietnam coastline on 23/11/2007
then weakened into a TS and hit Mindoro Island.
It continuously weakened into TD and dissipated
on water. This TC had unusual track : firstly it
moved westward along southern periphery of
subtropical high pressure ridge, then remained
stationary near Vietnam coastline , after that
it suddenly moved back to the east along the
Northern periphery of equatorial high pressure
ridge.
CMA typhoon model issued forecasts from 18
UTC 20/11/2007. Overally, model forecasts are
good upto +48h exept the forecast starting from
00 UTC 24/11/2007 (see Tab. 4)
Fig.9. Track of TY HAGIBIS (0725) and forecasts
of CMA’s typhoon track prediction model. Line
with TS symbols is observed track, other lines
are CMA’s model forecasts.
Table 4. Verification for track forecasts of TY
HAGIBIS (0725) ( position errors, km)