TCAR - Typhoon Committee

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296 ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Review 2009 Fig.16d. JMA’s Official forecasts for TY FENGSHEN (as Fig. 10) Forecasts of CMA’s typhoon model for TY FENGSHEN Fig.16e. JTWC’s consensus forecasts for TY FENGSHEN Fig.16f. JTWC’s official forecasts for TY FENGSHEN There are many reasons caused the fail of TY FENGSHEN’s track prediction such as failing to predict the large scale environmental flow, TS vortex was incorrectly presented in vortex initialization scheme., etc. Referring to the importance of vortex initialization scheme in CMA’s TS prediction system experiments were conducted in modifying intensity scheme - partly removing shallow vortex+bogus vortex in vortex relocation (Ma and Qu, 2009) to see the effect of vortex intensity presentation in TY FENGSHEN’s track prediction. Fig. 17 showed the initial Sea Level Pressure minimum at 00h for all the forecasts (19-24 Jun 2008) SLPmin 1010 1000 990 980 970 960 00/19 12/19 00/20 12/20 00/21 12/21 00/22 Date 12/22 00/23 12/23 00/24 12/24 EXP1 OBS Fig. 17 . Initial Sea Level Pressure minimum at 00h for all the forecasts (19-24 Jun 2008)
TCAR CHAPTER 5 - RESEARCH FELLOWSHIP TECHNICAL REPORT As can be seen from Fig.17, the bogus vortex is very weakly presented in initial field in comparison with the observed vortex. Configuration of experiments is as followings : (i) Experiment 1 : Operational system (GMTTP) BOGUS vortex relocation (ii) Experiment 2 : Bogus vortex relocation Partly removing shallow vortex + bogus vortex Fig. 18 showed the initial sea level pressure minimum at 00h for EXP 1 and EXP 2. It can be seen that the EXP 2 initial sea level pressure minimum is closer to that of observed vortex. SLPmin 1010 1000 990 980 970 960 00/19 12/19 00/20 12/20 00/21 12/21 00/22 Date 12/22 00/23 12/23 00/24 12/24 EXP1 OBS EXP2 Fig. 18 . Initial Sea Level Pressure minimum at 00h for EXP 1 and EXP 2 (19-24 Jun.) There were 10 track forecasts starting from 00 UTC 20/06/2008 conducted for experiments. Fig. 19a showed the track forecasts for EXP 1 and EXP 2 , Fig.19b showed the mean track errors for EXP 1 and EXP 2. mean track errors (km) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 24(10) 48(7) 72(4) 96(3) Time (h) NWP Bogus Fig.19a. Mean track errors for EXP 1 and EXP 2. Fig. 19b. The track forecasts for EXP 1 and EXP 2 As can be seen from Fig.19 better presenting TC bogus intensity in vortex initialization scheme brought positive effect on TY FENGSHEN’s track forecasts that led to decreasing the prediction errors and reducing NE bias (Ma and Qu, 2009). One of reasons causing inaccurate track forecasts of TY FENGSHEN is that models and official forecasts failed to predicted the development and intensity of subtropical high pressure ridge which is the large scale environmental flow. As mentioned in section 3 TS track forecasts could be improved if in vortex initialization scheme the environmental flow and the vortex structure were presented appropriatelly through selecting correct parameters (Nguyen T. M. Phuong, 2004). Fig.20 showed the TY FENGSHEN track forecasts issued in operational run by above mentioned barotropic model in VNCHMF. 2009 297
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ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee KUJIRAI
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CONTENTS ESCAP, WMO and the ESCAP/W
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Chapter 4 WMO TC NEWS TCAR ESCAP, W
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ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR
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TYPHOON COMMITTEE (2009) Chairman M
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FOREWORD The ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Comm
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Introduction The Typhoon Committee
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I.I. Summary of progress in Key Res
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Table of Comparison data reported f
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- Heavy rain with speed winds 10-15
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Co-operate with local community org
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2. Progress on Key Result Area 2: M
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on web. The module outcomes are sti
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Strategic Plan and progress on the
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Fig. 13: 850hPa Wind and Radar Echo
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points are related tightly to the d
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eyewall and that the next maximum r
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the degree of similarity. According
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Advanced training seminar on theory
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HONG KONG, CHINA 1. Progress on Key
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(b) Figure 12Hong Kong Observatory
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and analyzed later.When the situati
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in Localized Systems) nowcasting sy
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JAPAN 1. Progress on Key Result Are
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Figure 9 Technical assistance team
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Figure 13 Removal process of a land
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TCAR CHAPTER 1 - TYPHOON COMMITTEE
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Reporting on intermediate results i
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JMA for issuing weather warnings an
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approximately 60 km horizontally an
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-2. Promotion of Countermeasures fo
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1. Monitoring and forecasting of wa
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Figure 33 Storm surge observation a
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Singapore d-1. Ninth Typhoon Commit
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MACAO, CHINA 1. Progress on Key Res
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The power company continued to impr
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community associations visited the
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f. Identified Opportunities/Challen
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Develop expertise in writing simple
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2.3 Improved Typhoon-related Disast
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the theme of the World Health Day o
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strategic locations to enable emerg
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visits to the project sites were un
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Please refer to Key Result Area 1(c
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particularly in the Magat River Bas
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. Hydrological Achievements/Results
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Climate Analysis Using Reanalysis D
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s Fig. 9. Flood damage in urban are
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Fig. 13. Establishment of user-tail
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Fig. 17. Map of the Four Rivers Pro
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Development of System for Disaster
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2. Progress on Key Result Area 2: M
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will be used to establish more effi
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(5 years), the Philippines, and Hon
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Fig. 31. Expert Mission in Da Nang
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Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique
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TCAR CHAPTER 1 - TYPHOON COMMITTEE
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Fig. 39. Impact of IASI data in tro
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eview and handling process is neces
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One of the most important training
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Participants from Korea gave the fo
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SINGAPORE II. Summary of progress i
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d. Research, Training, and Other Ac
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THAILAND 1 Progress on Key Result A
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1) Identify Members’ key agencies
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forecast on 64 bits LINUX parallel
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organization to operate the disaste
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Centre to design “Mr. Disaster Wa
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USA II. Summary of Progress in Key
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of Honolulu Hawaii and Cabinet. The
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· In-house seminars. WFO Guam held
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· Mr. Roger Edson 3232 Hueneme Roa
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e. Regional Cooperation Achievement
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f. Identified Opportunities/Challen
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Tool bar · Developing the distribu
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Tel: (84-4) 3 8 256 278, Fax: (+84-
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1.2 TYPHOON COMMITTEE SECRETARIAT (
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Seventh International Workshop on T
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2.1 REPORT ON INDIVIDUAL TROPICAL C
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on that day. Koppu intensified into
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TCAR CHAPTER 2 - TROPICAL CYCLONES
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TCAR CHAPTER 2 - TROPICAL CYCLONES
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2.2.2 CHAN-HOM (0902) 2 - 13 June T
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2.2.4 NANGKA (0904) 22 - 27 June TC
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2.2.6 MOLAVE (0906) 15 July - 19 Ju
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2.2.8 MORAKOT (0908) 24 July - 01 A
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2.2.10 VAMCO (0910) 16 August - 26
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2.2.12 DUJUAN (0912) 2 September -
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2.2.14 CHOI-WAN (0914) 12 - 21 Sept
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2.2.16 KETSANA (0916) 25 September-
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2.2.18 MELOR (0918) 29 September -
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2.2.20 LUPIT (0920) 14 - 31 October
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2.2.22 NIDA (0922) 21 November - 3
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TCAR CHAPTER 3 - CONTRIBUTED PAPERS
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Page 245 and 246: TCAR CHAPTER 3 - CONTRIBUTED PAPERS
Page 261 and 262: 4.1 Introduction TCAR CHAPTER 4 - W
Page 263 and 264: - Attachment of Typhoon Forecasters
Page 265 and 266: It was attended by more than 50 int
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Page 269 and 270: Abstract TCAR CHAPTER 5 - RESEARCH
Page 271 and 272: TCAR CHAPTER 5 - RESEARCH FELLOWSHI
Page 283 and 284: First TCAR CHAPTER 5 - RESEARCH FEL
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TCAR - Typhoon Committee

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