TCAR - Typhoon Committee

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292 ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Review 2009 Date and time 00 +12h +24h +36h +48h +60h +72h 2008110712 0.0 88.6 74.6 202.2 170.4 164.8 277.3 2008110718 15.5 79.2 164.4 278.0 223.5 292.7 388.9 2008110800 15.4 45.7 169.1 101.3 123.3 279.8 - 2008110806 11.1 35.0 54.6 108.7 400.9 557.5 - 2008110812 35.0 131.2 77.6 169.4 339.7 - - 2008110818 24.6 92.1 84.6 252.9 380.6 - - 2008110900 15.4 73.9 202.1 317.9 - - - 2008110906 10.6 102.3 217.9 333.8 - - - 2008110912 10.6 107.9 228.9 - - - - 2008110918 11.1 169.9 349.8 - - - - 2008111000 0.0 190.3 - - - - - 2008111006 0.0 259.4 - - - - - 2008111012 10.8 - - - - - - 2008111018 24.7 - - - - - - FCST TIMES 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Average (km) 13.2 114.6 162.4 220.5 273.1 323.7 333.1 Min (km) 0.0 35.0 54.6 101.3 123.3 164.8 277.3 Max (km) 35.0 259.4 349.8 333.8 400.9 557.5 388.9 4.8. TS 0821 NOUL NOUL formed as TD near Philippines at 18 UTC 14/11/2008. It moved WNW and obtained TS intensity at 12 UTC 16/11/2008. Maintaning WNW motion it reached peak intensity with Vmax of 40 kts and center pressure of 994 hPa at 00 UTC 17/11/2008. After hitting southern coastline of Vietnam it downgraded into a TD and dissipated on the same day 17/11/2008. As can be seen from Fig.13. and Tab.8 the model forecasts are good. However, official forecasts of different forecast centers failed to predict its soon landfall on 17/11/2008 when predicting it to move SW and go along coastline. Fig.13. Track of TS NOUL (0821) and forecasts of CMA’s typhoon track prediction model. Other explanations are similar to those in Fig.6. Table 8. Verification for track forecasts of TS NOUL (0821) ( position errors, km) 4.9. TY 0916 KETSANA
TCAR CHAPTER 5 - RESEARCH FELLOWSHIP TECHNICAL REPORT KETSANA formed as TD at 00 UTC 25/09/2009 and moved mainly westward for the whole of its existence. It strengthened into TS intensity at 00 UTC 26/09/2009 and crossed Luzon Island to the South China Sea. Maintaining westward motion in the South China Sea it was upgraded into TY at 06 UTC 28/09/2009 , reaching its maximum intensity with Vmax of 70 kts and central minimum of 960 hPa. Turning to SW direction KETSANA hit Central Vietnam almost with its maximum intensity on 29/09/2009 then weakened rapidly into a TD at 06 30/09/2009. As can be seen from Fig. 14 and Tab.9 the CMA’s track forecasts also had NW bias and forecasts from 2009092800 toward the landfall had large errors when TY KETSANA suddenly turned to SW then made landfall. Fig. 14. Track of TY KETSANA (0916) and forecasts of CMA’s typhoon track prediction model. Other explanations are similar to those in Fig.6. Table 9. Verification for track forecasts of TY KETSANA (0916) ( position errors, km) 4.10. TY 0917 PARMA PARMA formed as TD south of Guam at 06 UTC 27/09/2009. At 06 UTC 29/09/2009 it gained intensity of TS. It move WNW and further intensified into TY and reached its maximum intensity with Vmax of 100 kts and central pressure of 930 hPa in 18 hours later. It moved NW and hit Northern Luzon Island on 03/10/2009 and remained in this area moving slowly back and forth for 6 days and weakened into TD. However, PARMA intensified again into a TS when moving westward into the South China Sea at 00 UTC 10/10/2009. Moving WNW and crossing Hainan Island it suddenly gained rapid intensification with Vmax of 70 kts in the Gulf of Tonkin then it moved SW and weakened into a TD in sea water. This TS had very complicated track, intensification change and lasted for long time (about 2 weeks). Model track forecasts in Fig. 15 indicated obvious north bias for almost whole life time of TY PARMA, especially for the period before and after hitting Philippines Island. Two first forecasts starting from 2009092900 and 2009092906 had large errors for +12h and +24h forecasts 2009 Date and time 00 +12h +24h +36h +48h +60h +72h 2009092518 24.7 162.6 210.9 171.3 156.0 111.2 125.8 2009092600 11.1 194.6 108.2 46.3 61.7 67.9 132.3 2009092606 92.2 162.2 147.3 167.1 111.7 92.6 88.8 2009092612 35.0 86.4 78.1 86.2 181.6 320.7 431.9 2009092618 15.4 54.8 39.6 39.0 72.2 193.8 305.8 2009092700 15.4 11.1 46.3 86.9 242.2 325.3 414.8 2009092706 15.4 63.0 44.5 35.0 143.4 175.1 - 2009092712 22.2 64.2 30.8 154.1 196.4 274.4 - 2009092718 10.7 54.6 92.5 162.5 178.2 - - 2009092800 22.2 39.6 123.4 169.8 303.2 - - 2009092806 0.0 81.9 207.1 310.6 - - - 2009092812 15.4 135.3 208.0 310.6 - - - 2009092818 11.1 100.6 239.4 - - - - 2009092900 24.7 172.9 301.6 - - - - 2009092906 0.0 284.0 - - - - - 2009092912 53.6 259.7 - - - - - 2009092918 39.1 - - - - - - 2009093000 99.1 - - - - - - FCST TIMES 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 Average (km) 29.1 120.5 134.1 145.0 164.7 195.1 249.9 Min (km) 0.0 11.1 30.8 35.0 72.2 67.9 88.8 Max (km) 99.1 284.0 301.6 310.6 303.2 325.3 431.9 293
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ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee KUJIRAI
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CONTENTS ESCAP, WMO and the ESCAP/W
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Chapter 4 WMO TC NEWS TCAR ESCAP, W
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ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR
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TYPHOON COMMITTEE (2009) Chairman M
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FOREWORD The ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Comm
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Introduction The Typhoon Committee
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I.I. Summary of progress in Key Res
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Table of Comparison data reported f
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- Heavy rain with speed winds 10-15
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Co-operate with local community org
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2. Progress on Key Result Area 2: M
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on web. The module outcomes are sti
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Strategic Plan and progress on the
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Fig. 13: 850hPa Wind and Radar Echo
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points are related tightly to the d
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eyewall and that the next maximum r
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the degree of similarity. According
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Advanced training seminar on theory
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HONG KONG, CHINA 1. Progress on Key
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(b) Figure 12Hong Kong Observatory
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and analyzed later.When the situati
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in Localized Systems) nowcasting sy
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JAPAN 1. Progress on Key Result Are
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Figure 9 Technical assistance team
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Figure 13 Removal process of a land
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TCAR CHAPTER 1 - TYPHOON COMMITTEE
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Reporting on intermediate results i
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JMA for issuing weather warnings an
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approximately 60 km horizontally an
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-2. Promotion of Countermeasures fo
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1. Monitoring and forecasting of wa
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Figure 33 Storm surge observation a
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Singapore d-1. Ninth Typhoon Commit
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MACAO, CHINA 1. Progress on Key Res
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The power company continued to impr
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community associations visited the
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f. Identified Opportunities/Challen
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Develop expertise in writing simple
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2.3 Improved Typhoon-related Disast
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the theme of the World Health Day o
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strategic locations to enable emerg
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visits to the project sites were un
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Please refer to Key Result Area 1(c
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particularly in the Magat River Bas
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. Hydrological Achievements/Results
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Climate Analysis Using Reanalysis D
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s Fig. 9. Flood damage in urban are
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Fig. 13. Establishment of user-tail
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Fig. 17. Map of the Four Rivers Pro
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Development of System for Disaster
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2. Progress on Key Result Area 2: M
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will be used to establish more effi
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(5 years), the Philippines, and Hon
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Fig. 31. Expert Mission in Da Nang
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Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique
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TCAR CHAPTER 1 - TYPHOON COMMITTEE
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Fig. 39. Impact of IASI data in tro
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eview and handling process is neces
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One of the most important training
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Participants from Korea gave the fo
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SINGAPORE II. Summary of progress i
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d. Research, Training, and Other Ac
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THAILAND 1 Progress on Key Result A
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1) Identify Members’ key agencies
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forecast on 64 bits LINUX parallel
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organization to operate the disaste
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Centre to design “Mr. Disaster Wa
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USA II. Summary of Progress in Key
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of Honolulu Hawaii and Cabinet. The
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· In-house seminars. WFO Guam held
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· Mr. Roger Edson 3232 Hueneme Roa
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e. Regional Cooperation Achievement
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f. Identified Opportunities/Challen
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Tool bar · Developing the distribu
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Tel: (84-4) 3 8 256 278, Fax: (+84-
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1.2 TYPHOON COMMITTEE SECRETARIAT (
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Seventh International Workshop on T
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2.1 REPORT ON INDIVIDUAL TROPICAL C
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on that day. Koppu intensified into
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TCAR CHAPTER 2 - TROPICAL CYCLONES
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TCAR CHAPTER 2 - TROPICAL CYCLONES
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2.2.2 CHAN-HOM (0902) 2 - 13 June T
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2.2.4 NANGKA (0904) 22 - 27 June TC
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2.2.6 MOLAVE (0906) 15 July - 19 Ju
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2.2.8 MORAKOT (0908) 24 July - 01 A
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2.2.10 VAMCO (0910) 16 August - 26
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2.2.12 DUJUAN (0912) 2 September -
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2.2.14 CHOI-WAN (0914) 12 - 21 Sept
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2.2.16 KETSANA (0916) 25 September-
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2.2.18 MELOR (0918) 29 September -
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2.2.20 LUPIT (0920) 14 - 31 October
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2.2.22 NIDA (0922) 21 November - 3
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TCAR CHAPTER 3 - CONTRIBUTED PAPERS
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Page 241 and 242: TCAR CHAPTER 3 - CONTRIBUTED PAPERS
Page 261 and 262: 4.1 Introduction TCAR CHAPTER 4 - W
Page 263 and 264: - Attachment of Typhoon Forecasters
Page 265 and 266: It was attended by more than 50 int
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Page 269 and 270: Abstract TCAR CHAPTER 5 - RESEARCH
Page 271 and 272: TCAR CHAPTER 5 - RESEARCH FELLOWSHI
Page 283 and 284: First TCAR CHAPTER 5 - RESEARCH FEL
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TCAR - Typhoon Committee

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