TCAR - Typhoon Committee

284
ESCAP/WMO
Typhoon Committee Annual Review 2009
upgraded into TS in 12 hours later. Maintaining
WNW motion SAOMAI strengthened into TY
on 06 UTC 07/08/2006 and reached its peak
intensity with center minimum pressure (Pmin)
of 925 hPa and maximum sustained wind
(Vmax) of 105 kts at 12 UTC 09/08/2010. On
the next day 10/08/2006, SAOMAI made landfall
in central China with TY intensity. Keeping the
same track it weakened into TD and dissipated
on 11/08/2006 and 12/08/2006. During its
occurrence in WNPAC there were other two TCs
(MARIA (0607) and BOPHA (0609)) that led to
complicated interaction between 3 TCs.
Track of TY SAOMAI (0608) and forecasts of
CMA’s typhoon track prediction model were given
in Fig.6 and verification for track forecasts of TY
SAOMAI (0608) (position errors, km) was shown
in Tab.1.
As can be seen from the Fig.6 and Tab.1 although
TY SAOMAI ‘s track maintained WNW direction
persistently a number of model track forecasts
has serious errors for all forecasting ranges
from +12h to +72h, especially for model forecasts
starting from initial time 2006080512 to
2006080618. As for the latter initial times model
track forecasts were improved for +12h and +24h
periods. Overally, the northward bias in model
forecasts is very obvious.
Fig.6 . Track of TY SAOMAI (0608) and forecasts
of CMA’s typhoon track prediction model. Red line
is for observed track and green lines are for track
forecasts at various initial times.
Table 1. Verification for track forecasts of TY
SAOMAI (0608) ( position errors, km)