TCAR - Typhoon Committee

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290 ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Review 2009 Fig.10. Track of TY FENGSHEN (0806) and forecasts of CMA’s typhoon track prediction model. Other explanations are similar to those in Fig.6 Table 5. Verification for track forecasts of TY FENGSHEN (0806) ( position errors, km) 4.6. TY 0816 MEKKHALA MEKKHALA formed as TD on 18 UTC 27/09/2008 in SCS. Moving NW it gained intensity of TS on 00 UTC 29/09/2008. It reached the peak intensity with Vmax of 45 kts and center pressure of 900 hPa at 18 UTC 29/09/2008. Early on 30/09/2008 MEKKHALA hit Central Vietnam coastline . Then it turned to WNW and weakened into a TD and moved to Laos dissipating at 18 UTC 30/09/2008. This TS moved fast. As can be seen from Fig. 11 and Tab.6 the errors are large for forecast period +24h. Also, one model forecast had NW bias. Forecasts from different forecast centers failed to catch its fast motion. Date time and 00 +12h +24h +36h +48h +60h +72h 2008061900 24.6 22.2 122.4 218.6 313.0 326.3 278.9 2008061906 0.0 62.4 180.0 261.9 330.2 359.3 389.8 2008061912 15.6 100.7 130.5 219.0 217.3 262.4 345.7 2008061918 11.1 32.7 108.9 193.2 185.8 135.3 308.1 2008062000 24.8 94.3 155.9 139.7 135.7 177.8 263.2 2008062006 0.0 39.5 128.8 131.1 150.5 305.3 299.2 2008062012 24.4 144.0 190.7 123.0 15.4 182.4 271.9 2008062018 44.9 94.9 77.5 32.1 277.1 300.9 432.2 2008062100 48.9 80.8 10.8 75.7 274.2 331.5 389.4 2008062106 39.4 202.0 225.3 400.7 561.0 659.9 718.3 2008062112 2008062118 2008062200 2008062206 2008062212 2008062218 2008062300 2008062306 2008062312 2008062318 34.4 10.8 10.8 0.0 34.0 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.1 87.5 75.8 164.4 285.2 224.1 105.2 101.1 64.2 33.3 33.4 119.7 323.1 299.0 365.6 435.7 312.7 168.6 125.6 136.1 112.4 230.0 301.0 376.7 507.2 - 401.4 290.7 290.9 308.1 225.0 276.4 389.1 497.6 686.4 - - 452.1 470.4 386.5 284.4 346.7 492.1 745.0 992.5 - - - - - - 494.3 - - - - - - - - - 2008062400 2008062406 2008062412 2008062418 2008062500 2008062506 2008062512 2008062518 0.0 11.1 0.0 15.2 0.0 22.2 22.2 11.1 56.4 95.5 83.7 107.7 111.7 75.3 - - 133.7 133.0 40.8 143.2 - - - - 204.5 203.7 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST TIMES 28 26 24 21 18 16 11 Average (km) 15.3 99.1 174.2 244.5 327.9 419.8 381.0 Min (km) 0.0 22.2 10.8 32.1 15.4 135.3 263.2 Max (km) 48.9 285.2 435.7 507.2 686.4 992.5 718.3
TCAR CHAPTER 5 - RESEARCH FELLOWSHIP TECHNICAL REPORT Fig.11. Track of TY MEKKHALA (0816) and forecasts of CMA’s typhoon track prediction model. Other explanations are similar to those in Fig.6. Table 6. Verification for track forecasts of TY MEKKHALA (0816) ( position errors, km) Date and time 00 +12h +24h +36h +48h +60h +72h 2008092900 39.0 76.9 149.0 421.1 - - - 2008092906 10.7 137.9 245.3 - - - - 2008092912 33.4 43.8 288.3 - - - - 2008092918 0.0 108.1 - - - - - 2008093000 15.4 273.1 2008093006 23.9 - - - - - - 2008093012 133.0 - - - - - - FCST TIMES 7 5 3 1 - - - Average (km) 36.5 128.0 227.5 421.1 - - - Min (km) 0.0 43.8 149.0 421.1 - - - Max (km) 133.0 273.1 288.3 421.1 - - - 4.7. TY 0819 MAYSAK MAYSAK formed as TD at 12 UTC 05/11/2008. It moved NW and crossed Philippines. It was upgraded to TS at 06 UTC 07/11/2008. Turning gradually to the North it gained peak intensity with Vmax of 50 kts and center pressure of 985 hPa at 12 UTC 08/11/2008. Turning in clockwise direction it weakend into a TD on 12 UTC 09/11/2008. After keeping southward track until around 00 UTC 12/11/2008 it turned sharply to the west and dissipated over sea near Vietnam coastline at 00 UTC 14/11/2008. MAYSAK had complicated track and slow motion that led to large forecast errors since initial time 2008110900 when it started moving to the South. Fig.12. Track of TY MAYSAK (0819) and forecasts of CMA’s typhoon track prediction model. Other explanations are similar to those in Fig.6. Table 7. Verification for track forecasts of TY MAYSAK (0819) ( position errors, km) 2009 291
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ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee KUJIRAI
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CONTENTS ESCAP, WMO and the ESCAP/W
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Chapter 4 WMO TC NEWS TCAR ESCAP, W
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ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR
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TYPHOON COMMITTEE (2009) Chairman M
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FOREWORD The ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Comm
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Introduction The Typhoon Committee
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I.I. Summary of progress in Key Res
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Table of Comparison data reported f
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- Heavy rain with speed winds 10-15
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Co-operate with local community org
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2. Progress on Key Result Area 2: M
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on web. The module outcomes are sti
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Strategic Plan and progress on the
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Fig. 13: 850hPa Wind and Radar Echo
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points are related tightly to the d
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eyewall and that the next maximum r
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the degree of similarity. According
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Advanced training seminar on theory
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HONG KONG, CHINA 1. Progress on Key
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(b) Figure 12Hong Kong Observatory
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and analyzed later.When the situati
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in Localized Systems) nowcasting sy
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JAPAN 1. Progress on Key Result Are
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Figure 9 Technical assistance team
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Figure 13 Removal process of a land
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TCAR CHAPTER 1 - TYPHOON COMMITTEE
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Reporting on intermediate results i
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JMA for issuing weather warnings an
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approximately 60 km horizontally an
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-2. Promotion of Countermeasures fo
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1. Monitoring and forecasting of wa
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Figure 33 Storm surge observation a
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Singapore d-1. Ninth Typhoon Commit
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MACAO, CHINA 1. Progress on Key Res
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The power company continued to impr
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community associations visited the
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f. Identified Opportunities/Challen
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Develop expertise in writing simple
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2.3 Improved Typhoon-related Disast
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the theme of the World Health Day o
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strategic locations to enable emerg
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visits to the project sites were un
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Please refer to Key Result Area 1(c
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particularly in the Magat River Bas
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. Hydrological Achievements/Results
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Climate Analysis Using Reanalysis D
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s Fig. 9. Flood damage in urban are
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Fig. 13. Establishment of user-tail
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Fig. 17. Map of the Four Rivers Pro
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Development of System for Disaster
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2. Progress on Key Result Area 2: M
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will be used to establish more effi
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(5 years), the Philippines, and Hon
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Fig. 31. Expert Mission in Da Nang
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Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique
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TCAR CHAPTER 1 - TYPHOON COMMITTEE
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Fig. 39. Impact of IASI data in tro
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eview and handling process is neces
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One of the most important training
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Participants from Korea gave the fo
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SINGAPORE II. Summary of progress i
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d. Research, Training, and Other Ac
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THAILAND 1 Progress on Key Result A
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1) Identify Members’ key agencies
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forecast on 64 bits LINUX parallel
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organization to operate the disaste
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Centre to design “Mr. Disaster Wa
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USA II. Summary of Progress in Key
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of Honolulu Hawaii and Cabinet. The
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· In-house seminars. WFO Guam held
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· Mr. Roger Edson 3232 Hueneme Roa
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e. Regional Cooperation Achievement
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f. Identified Opportunities/Challen
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Tool bar · Developing the distribu
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Tel: (84-4) 3 8 256 278, Fax: (+84-
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1.2 TYPHOON COMMITTEE SECRETARIAT (
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Seventh International Workshop on T
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2.1 REPORT ON INDIVIDUAL TROPICAL C
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on that day. Koppu intensified into
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TCAR CHAPTER 2 - TROPICAL CYCLONES
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TCAR CHAPTER 2 - TROPICAL CYCLONES
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2.2.2 CHAN-HOM (0902) 2 - 13 June T
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2.2.4 NANGKA (0904) 22 - 27 June TC
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2.2.6 MOLAVE (0906) 15 July - 19 Ju
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2.2.8 MORAKOT (0908) 24 July - 01 A
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2.2.10 VAMCO (0910) 16 August - 26
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2.2.12 DUJUAN (0912) 2 September -
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2.2.14 CHOI-WAN (0914) 12 - 21 Sept
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2.2.16 KETSANA (0916) 25 September-
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2.2.18 MELOR (0918) 29 September -
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2.2.20 LUPIT (0920) 14 - 31 October
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2.2.22 NIDA (0922) 21 November - 3
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TCAR CHAPTER 3 - CONTRIBUTED PAPERS
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Page 239 and 240: TCAR CHAPTER 3 - CONTRIBUTED PAPERS
Page 261 and 262: 4.1 Introduction TCAR CHAPTER 4 - W
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Page 265 and 266: It was attended by more than 50 int
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Page 269 and 270: Abstract TCAR CHAPTER 5 - RESEARCH
Page 271 and 272: TCAR CHAPTER 5 - RESEARCH FELLOWSHI
Page 283 and 284: First TCAR CHAPTER 5 - RESEARCH FEL
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TCAR - Typhoon Committee

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