TCAR - Typhoon Committee
TCAR - Typhoon Committee
TCAR - Typhoon Committee
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294<br />
ESCAP/WMO<br />
<strong>Typhoon</strong> <strong>Committee</strong> Annual Review 2009<br />
with 137.4 km and 224.7 km for the first initial<br />
time and 148.3 km and 200.4 km for the latter<br />
initial time respectively. Furthermore, in Tab. 10<br />
it can be seen that starting from 2009100406 to<br />
2009100500 when TY PARMA hit Philippines<br />
and slowed down its motion moving back and<br />
forth the model forecasts had large errors for<br />
time periods from +36h to +72h. When PARMA<br />
started to move into the Southern China Sea<br />
on 2009101012 the track forecasts also had big<br />
errors for forecast time +24h to +72h.<br />
Fig.15. Track of TY PARMA (0917) and forecasts<br />
of CMA’s typhoon track prediction model. Other<br />
explanations are similar to those in Fig.6.<br />
Table 10. Verification for track forecasts of TY<br />
PARMA (0917) ( position errors, km)<br />
Date and time 00 +12h +24h +36h +48h +60h +72h<br />
2009092900 34.8 137.4 224.7 238.9 272.1 275.0 239.8<br />
2009092906 11.1 148.3 200.4 234.5 267.1 200.4 200.4<br />
2009092912 11.0 74.4 153.7 150.9 143.8 139.5 115.7<br />
2009092918 11.1 69.4 83.3 136.7 151.4 177.4 192.3<br />
2009093000 24.8 69.2 94.3 124.6 109.8 57.9 108.6<br />
2009093006 11.1 24.5 101.1 54.5 70.2 91.5 139.9<br />
2009093012 0.0 49.5 85.5 72.6 88.3 47.9 104.9<br />
2009093018 11.1 56.6 39.7 98.8 94.5 87.6 116.0<br />
2009100100 11.1 39.4 39.7 56.6 100.6 92.0 11.1<br />
2009100106 11.1 24.7 74.1 94.3 133.2 42.1 84.7<br />
2009100112 10.8 55.0 92.5 155.1 163.7 210.1 213.5<br />
2009100118 0.0 61.8 100.7 131.0 97.3 136.4 154.0<br />
2009100200 11.1 35.0 115.6 73.8 129.7 160.6 297.2<br />
2009100206 10.7 55.6 109.2 23.8 66.7 149.9 276.6<br />
2009100212 0.0 113.2 94.4 45.9 135.9 253.4 379.9<br />
2009100218 0.0 15.4 90.6 23.8 24.6 80.3 274.1<br />
2009100300 0.0 107.6 71.3 38.5 63.7 160.3 180.4<br />
2009100306 10.6 64.1 94.9 125.4 148.0 216.8 265.2<br />
2009100312 11.1 78.5 80.6 132.9 175.8 209.7 206.9<br />
2009100318 0.0 102.2 63.8 55.6 59.4 102.2 133.4<br />
2009100400 15.3 62.7 76.2 44.5 106.9 153.9 283.1<br />
2009100406 11.1 53.4 149.8 265.0 425.0 636.5 870.2<br />
2009100412 10.5 89.0 147.9 227.2 252.0 434.3 532.1<br />
2009100418 0.0 91.4 167.7 284.6 352.1 527.6 634.8<br />
2009100500 10.4 38.4 151.6 275.8 476.9 629.9 694.0<br />
2009100506 0.0 11.1 76.9 154.7 237.9 240.6 11.1<br />
2009100512 0.0 33.4 84.3 64.6 95.8 181.6 406.8<br />
2009100518 15.3 15.3 45.7 54.7 164.5 159.3 369.1<br />
2009100600 0.0 33.5 180.6 175.5 10.6 139.9 107.7<br />
2009100606 11.1 39.5 54.2 56.6 131.5 271.8 317.1<br />
2009100612 0.0 63.6 44.5 107.5 207.2 231.1 243.8<br />
2009100618 10.6 62.7 119.0 70.0 115.3 131.2 161.0<br />
2009100700 23.9 39.5 94.5 187.1 197.1 184.0 270.6<br />
2009100706 11.1 45.7 138.2 277.6 299.0 354.9 300.4<br />
2009100712 0.0 30.7 140.0 157.1 115.8 222.0 84.0<br />
2009100718 11.1 76.8 119.0 152.7 146.4 108.6 214.3<br />
2009100800 22.2 44.0 115.3 131.4 115.7 62.4 139.9<br />
2009100806 11.1 194.4 266.6 299.5 131.1 197.8 348.4<br />
2009100812 15.4 57.7 118.8 161.8 52.8 220.0 281.9<br />
2009100818 24.0 75.2 121.4 57.3 116.7 273.5 238.0<br />
2009100900 24.7 77.5 182.5 49.2 154.7 214.4 217.2<br />
2009100906 0.0 77.6 0.0 38.7 114.8 116.6 147.5<br />
2009100912 15.4 128.1 31.7 167.0 201.2 189.2 230.5<br />
2009100918 10.6 47.8 31.7 200.1 191.1 241.6 294.7
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