TCAR - Typhoon Committee

TCAR
CHAPTER 5 - RESEARCH FELLOWSHIP TECHNICAL REPORT
2009101000 0.0 123.1 139.2 214.9 212.7 283.9 294.7
2009101006 0.0 54.0 202.3 195.2 210.9 242.0 220.4
2009101012 11.1 133.9 226.0 278.5 346.2 387.7 406.7
2009101018 0.0 110.2 158.3 230.9 251.2 219.4 156.9
2009101100 15.3 69.9 105.8 136.6 158.4 203.3 146.7
2009101106 15.4 49.2 76.7 54.4 30.5 59.4 78.5
2009101112 10.6 24.6 15.3 91.6 126.3 83.9 137.1
2009101118 10.6 22.2 41.9 11.1 44.5 34.9 -
2009101200 11.1 63.8 55.6 78.6 91.4 103.7 -
2009101206 15.3 45.8 24.6 11.1 23.6 - -
2009101212 0.0 43.2 73.8 61.9 153.7 - -
2009101218 0.0 24.6 56.6 45.7 - - -
2009101300 0.0 24.6 63.6 146.1 - - -
2009101306 0.0 56.7 98.3 - - - -
2009101312 0.0 100.0 - - - - -
2009101318 0.0 89.0 - - - - -
2009101400 0.0 113.1 - - - - -
2009101406 11.1 - - - - - -
2009101412 44.5 - - - - - -
FCST TIMES 63 61 58 57 55 53 51
Average (km) 9.4 65.9 103.6 127.8 155.6 200.6 245.8
Min (km) 0.0 11.1 0.0 11.1 10.6 34.9 11.1
Max (km) 44.5 194.4 226.0 299.5 476.9 636.5 694.0
5. Numerical experiments for TY FENGSHEN
(0806) and TY PARMA (0917)
In this section some attemps to improve the model
forecasts for TY FENGSHEN and TY PARMA had
been conducted by modifying vortex modification
step in vortex initialization scheme.
5.1. TY FENGSHEN (0806)
As mentioned in 4.5 track forecasts for TY
FENGSHEN from many forecasting centers,
including CMA’s model and official forecasts
were not accurate with large position errors and
strong NE bias. Fig. 16 showed forecasts from
different forecast centers and models.
Fig.16a. CMA’s official forecasts for TY
FENGSHEN
Fig.16b. Forecasts of Global Spectrum Model
(GSM, JMA) for TY FENGSHEN
Fig.16c. GUAM’s Official forecasts for TY
FENGSHEN
2009
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