TCAR - Typhoon Committee

TCAR
CHAPTER 5 - RESEARCH FELLOWSHIP TECHNICAL REPORT
Fig.11. Track of TY MEKKHALA (0816) and
forecasts of CMA’s typhoon track prediction
model. Other explanations are similar to those in
Fig.6.
Table 6. Verification for track forecasts of TY
MEKKHALA (0816) ( position errors, km)
Date and time 00 +12h +24h +36h +48h +60h +72h
2008092900 39.0 76.9 149.0 421.1 - - -
2008092906 10.7 137.9 245.3 - - - -
2008092912 33.4 43.8 288.3 - - - -
2008092918 0.0 108.1 - - - - -
2008093000 15.4 273.1
2008093006 23.9 - - - - - -
2008093012 133.0 - - - - - -
FCST TIMES 7 5 3 1 - - -
Average (km) 36.5 128.0 227.5 421.1 - - -
Min (km) 0.0 43.8 149.0 421.1 - - -
Max (km) 133.0 273.1 288.3 421.1 - - -
4.7. TY 0819 MAYSAK
MAYSAK formed as TD at 12 UTC 05/11/2008.
It moved NW and crossed Philippines. It was
upgraded to TS at 06 UTC 07/11/2008. Turning
gradually to the North it gained peak intensity
with Vmax of 50 kts and center pressure of
985 hPa at 12 UTC 08/11/2008. Turning in
clockwise direction it weakend into a TD on 12
UTC 09/11/2008. After keeping southward track
until around 00 UTC 12/11/2008 it turned sharply
to the west and dissipated over sea near Vietnam
coastline at 00 UTC 14/11/2008.
MAYSAK had complicated track and slow motion
that led to large forecast errors
since initial time 2008110900 when
it started moving to the South.
Fig.12. Track of TY MAYSAK
(0819) and forecasts of CMA’s
typhoon track prediction model.
Other explanations are similar to
those in Fig.6.
Table 7. Verification for track
forecasts of TY MAYSAK (0819)
( position errors, km)
2009
291