TCAR - Typhoon Committee

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284 ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Review 2009 upgraded into TS in 12 hours later. Maintaining WNW motion SAOMAI strengthened into TY on 06 UTC 07/08/2006 and reached its peak intensity with center minimum pressure (Pmin) of 925 hPa and maximum sustained wind (Vmax) of 105 kts at 12 UTC 09/08/2010. On the next day 10/08/2006, SAOMAI made landfall in central China with TY intensity. Keeping the same track it weakened into TD and dissipated on 11/08/2006 and 12/08/2006. During its occurrence in WNPAC there were other two TCs (MARIA (0607) and BOPHA (0609)) that led to complicated interaction between 3 TCs. Track of TY SAOMAI (0608) and forecasts of CMA’s typhoon track prediction model were given in Fig.6 and verification for track forecasts of TY SAOMAI (0608) (position errors, km) was shown in Tab.1. As can be seen from the Fig.6 and Tab.1 although TY SAOMAI ‘s track maintained WNW direction persistently a number of model track forecasts has serious errors for all forecasting ranges from +12h to +72h, especially for model forecasts starting from initial time 2006080512 to 2006080618. As for the latter initial times model track forecasts were improved for +12h and +24h periods. Overally, the northward bias in model forecasts is very obvious. Fig.6 . Track of TY SAOMAI (0608) and forecasts of CMA’s typhoon track prediction model. Red line is for observed track and green lines are for track forecasts at various initial times. Table 1. Verification for track forecasts of TY SAOMAI (0608) ( position errors, km)
TCAR CHAPTER 5 - RESEARCH FELLOWSHIP TECHNICAL REPORT Date and time 00 +12h +24h +36h +48h +60h +72h 2006080512 0.0 133.9 238.7 353.1 497.4 633.0 781.6 2006080518 0.0 164.6 201.7 318.2 431.1 513.0 628.1 2006080600 10.8 177.2 234.0 349.8 492.1 668.5 889.3 2006080606 10.7 98.2 207.3 324.5 475.6 568.8 698.6 2006080612 0.0 100.4 176.1 304.3 409.7 516.2 537.9 2006080618 0.0 107.1 227.6 347.9 441.6 596.2 678.8 2006080700 15.4 74.2 91.2 128.7 180.4 241.8 348.9 2006080706 33.5 109.4 126.4 130.6 206.6 290.4 378.5 2006080712 0.0 66.1 75.3 101.7 189.5 230.2 306.6 2006080718 10.4 22.2 39.1 48.8 63.9 104.4 107.9 2006080800 11.1 76.0 112.2 111.7 163.2 250.7 303.0 2006080806 0.0 33.4 80.4 101.9 171.9 222.4 212.0 2006080812 11.1 92.9 165.2 249.0 399.6 474.2 523.3 2006080818 42.4 69.1 140.7 216.3 318.9 328.9 286.0 2006080900 15.1 80.4 144.9 182.2 260.3 144.5 - 2006080906 0.0 60.0 91.1 125.8 169.8 101.7 - 2006080912 10.0 91.1 155.7 233.7 156.0 - - 2006080918 0.0 122.3 176.8 208.4 168.2 - - 2006081000 11.1 89.2 140.1 101.2 - - - 2006081006 0.0 54.0 87.0 141.7 - - - 2006081012 0.0 77.3 87.5 - - - - 2006081018 14.8 101.9 - - - - - 2006081100 14.8 45.5 - - - - - 2006081106 11.1 34.7 - - - - - 2006081112 31.1 - - - - - - 2006081118 58.6 - - - - - - FCST TIMES 26 24 21 20 18 16 14 Average (km) 12.0 86.7 142.8 204.0 288.7 367.8 367.8 Min (km) 0.0 22.2 39.1 48.8 63.9 101.7 107.9 Max (km) 58.6 177.2 238.7 353.1 497.4 668.5 889.3 4.2. TY 0622 DURIAN DURIAN formed as TD on 06 UTC 25/11/2006 in sea water near Caroline Island. During its motion to west it gained intensity of TS at 12 UTC 26/11/2006. Its intensity continuously increased upto TY at 18 UTC 28/11/2006 when its track changed to WNW. When DURIAN reached Philippines Island it obtained the peak intensity with Vmax of 105 kts and central Pmin of 915 hPa at 12 UTC 29/11/2006. It kept moving westward when passing Philippines Islands and going into the SCS in the same direction. On 03/12/2006 DURIAN turned to SW and made landfall near HOCHIMINH City on 05/11/2006 with intensity of STS. During DURIAN’s occurrence it firstly moved WNW, then turned to W and SW. It was a special TY as formed in late time of TS season and reached super typhoon intensity and moving to SW direction to lower latitudes that was very rare. As can be seen from Fig.7 and Tab.2 model track forecasts from initial times from 2006112606 to 2006112700 had strong north bias with large errors in +12h , +24h, +36h and +48h. Model track forecasts from latter innitial times had better performance in all forecast periods from +12h upto +72h. 2009 285
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ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee KUJIRAI
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CONTENTS ESCAP, WMO and the ESCAP/W
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Chapter 4 WMO TC NEWS TCAR ESCAP, W
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ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR
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TYPHOON COMMITTEE (2009) Chairman M
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FOREWORD The ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Comm
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Introduction The Typhoon Committee
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I.I. Summary of progress in Key Res
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Table of Comparison data reported f
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- Heavy rain with speed winds 10-15
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Co-operate with local community org
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2. Progress on Key Result Area 2: M
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on web. The module outcomes are sti
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Strategic Plan and progress on the
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Fig. 13: 850hPa Wind and Radar Echo
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points are related tightly to the d
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eyewall and that the next maximum r
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the degree of similarity. According
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Advanced training seminar on theory
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HONG KONG, CHINA 1. Progress on Key
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(b) Figure 12Hong Kong Observatory
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and analyzed later.When the situati
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in Localized Systems) nowcasting sy
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JAPAN 1. Progress on Key Result Are
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Figure 9 Technical assistance team
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Figure 13 Removal process of a land
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TCAR CHAPTER 1 - TYPHOON COMMITTEE
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Reporting on intermediate results i
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JMA for issuing weather warnings an
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approximately 60 km horizontally an
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-2. Promotion of Countermeasures fo
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1. Monitoring and forecasting of wa
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Figure 33 Storm surge observation a
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Singapore d-1. Ninth Typhoon Commit
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MACAO, CHINA 1. Progress on Key Res
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The power company continued to impr
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community associations visited the
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f. Identified Opportunities/Challen
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Develop expertise in writing simple
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2.3 Improved Typhoon-related Disast
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the theme of the World Health Day o
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strategic locations to enable emerg
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visits to the project sites were un
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Please refer to Key Result Area 1(c
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particularly in the Magat River Bas
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. Hydrological Achievements/Results
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Climate Analysis Using Reanalysis D
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s Fig. 9. Flood damage in urban are
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Fig. 13. Establishment of user-tail
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Fig. 17. Map of the Four Rivers Pro
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Development of System for Disaster
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2. Progress on Key Result Area 2: M
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will be used to establish more effi
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(5 years), the Philippines, and Hon
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Fig. 31. Expert Mission in Da Nang
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Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique
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TCAR CHAPTER 1 - TYPHOON COMMITTEE
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Fig. 39. Impact of IASI data in tro
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eview and handling process is neces
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One of the most important training
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Participants from Korea gave the fo
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SINGAPORE II. Summary of progress i
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d. Research, Training, and Other Ac
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THAILAND 1 Progress on Key Result A
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1) Identify Members’ key agencies
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forecast on 64 bits LINUX parallel
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organization to operate the disaste
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Centre to design “Mr. Disaster Wa
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USA II. Summary of Progress in Key
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of Honolulu Hawaii and Cabinet. The
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· In-house seminars. WFO Guam held
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· Mr. Roger Edson 3232 Hueneme Roa
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e. Regional Cooperation Achievement
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f. Identified Opportunities/Challen
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Tool bar · Developing the distribu
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Tel: (84-4) 3 8 256 278, Fax: (+84-
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1.2 TYPHOON COMMITTEE SECRETARIAT (
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Seventh International Workshop on T
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2.1 REPORT ON INDIVIDUAL TROPICAL C
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on that day. Koppu intensified into
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TCAR CHAPTER 2 - TROPICAL CYCLONES
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TCAR CHAPTER 2 - TROPICAL CYCLONES
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2.2.2 CHAN-HOM (0902) 2 - 13 June T
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2.2.4 NANGKA (0904) 22 - 27 June TC
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2.2.6 MOLAVE (0906) 15 July - 19 Ju
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2.2.8 MORAKOT (0908) 24 July - 01 A
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2.2.10 VAMCO (0910) 16 August - 26
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2.2.12 DUJUAN (0912) 2 September -
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2.2.14 CHOI-WAN (0914) 12 - 21 Sept
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2.2.16 KETSANA (0916) 25 September-
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2.2.18 MELOR (0918) 29 September -
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2.2.20 LUPIT (0920) 14 - 31 October
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2.2.22 NIDA (0922) 21 November - 3
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TCAR CHAPTER 3 - CONTRIBUTED PAPERS
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Page 233 and 234: TCAR CHAPTER 3 - CONTRIBUTED PAPERS
Page 261 and 262: 4.1 Introduction TCAR CHAPTER 4 - W
Page 263 and 264: - Attachment of Typhoon Forecasters
Page 265 and 266: It was attended by more than 50 int
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Page 269 and 270: Abstract TCAR CHAPTER 5 - RESEARCH
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Page 283: First TCAR CHAPTER 5 - RESEARCH FEL
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TCAR - Typhoon Committee

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