Assessment of Planning and Retail Issues - Renfrewshire Council

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PROPOSED EXTENSIONS AT 18 ASSESSMENT OF PLANNING AND RETAIL ISSUES BRAEHEAD RETAIL PARK MAY 2010 proposals, on the assumption that all the new retail floorspace will have been provided and occupied by then, and the retailers will have achieved an established and settled trading situation. Expenditure Estimates 3.11 Using 2005 retail expenditure estimates for the 10 minute and 20 drive time isochrone areas around Braehead, provided by the MapInfo (now Pitney Bowes) organisation, and by referring to expenditure growth projections also provided by Pitney Bowes in their Retail Expenditure Guide 2009/10, published in September 2009, it is possible to project the growth in spending for each of the main comparison goods categories for the period from 2005 to 2012. 3.12 The projections to 2008 are based on actual recorded expenditure growth during that period, showing an overall increase of around 15% in real terms from 2005 to 2008. However from 2008 to 2012 the expenditure projections rely on careful interpretation of the various economic indicators which are available. 3.13 The Pitney Bowes Retail Expenditure Guide 2009/10 contains two sets of expenditure forecasts - one based on PB’s own research and the other produced by Oxford Economics. The latter forecasts are not solely based on past trends but also take account of prevailing socio-economic factors. However they were produced at a time when the UK was still in the depths of recession and accordingly are very pessimistic. Furthermore the government’s Office for National Statistics monitor of retail spending by volume (i.e. excluding changes in prices) shows that growth in spending on non-food goods increased by 3% in real terms in 2008 and 4% in 2009, with positive indications that retail growth is holding up in 2010. Consequently the Oxford Economics projection of a reduction in comparison spending of 2.7% per annum from 2008 to 2010, and an average rate of growth of only 1.6% per annum from 2008 to 2014, now appears unrealistic. 3.14 In contrast, the Pitney Bowes estimates, based solely on past trends, suggests a growth rate of between 4.9% and 5.5% per annum from 2008, based on longterm (1978-2008) and medium-term (1988-2008) trends. These too appear unrealistic, but in a too-positive rather than too-negative way. 3.15 Accordingly we have applied a growth rate of 3.5% per annum for the period 2008 to 2012, being the average of the growth recorded by the Office for National
PROPOSED EXTENSIONS AT 19 ASSESSMENT OF PLANNING AND RETAIL ISSUES BRAEHEAD RETAIL PARK MAY 2010 Statistics during the two ‘recession years’, and below even the most cautious of the trend projections published by Pitney Bowes (which range from 3.9% ultra long term to 6.6% short term). 3.16 The variations in spending between the 10 and 20 minute drive-time areas are not substantial, and thus their allocation to the different catchment areas is not critical, but we have applied the figures according to the allocation shown in Table 1, with Paisley / Renfrew, Glasgow NW / Clydebank and Glasgow South / Newton Mearns catchments being in the 0-10 drive time and the others in the 10-20 minute area. 3.17 By applying the expenditure estimates in Table 2 to the population projections in Table 1, we are able to estimate the amount of comparison spending available for each category of product for the years 2008, 2010 and 2012. Table 3 shows that total available comparison spending in the main catchment will reach more than £4,200 million this year and £4,500 million in 2012 (at 2005 prices), representing a £300 million increase in two years, even on the basis of the modest growth forecasts which we have adopted. Table 3 also shows that comparison expenditure growth in the Paisley / Renfrew catchment will be considerable, rising from £810 million in 2008 to £915 million by 2012, an increase of more than £100 million over four years, despite the very lean growth period from 2008 to 2010. Shopping Patterns 3.18 The next stage of the analysis is to estimate the likely distribution of comparison expenditure around the main catchment area, using the results of the 2003 household survey which was undertaken in the structure plan area. In Tables 4 to 7 we have used these survey results but applied them to the estimated available spending in 2008 - i.e. we have assumed that the shopping patterns of 2003 will remain the same until 2008. Later in the analysis we will address any likely changes in shopping patterns which need to be taken into account. 3.19 By applying the estimates of available expenditure in 2008 to the results of the household survey for each shopping catchment area, we are able to produce tables of spending in each shopping destination for each product category (Tables 4 to 7). The distribution of spending varies considerably from product to product, so that for example Glasgow city centre attracts 46% of all available spending on clothing in the catchment, but only 12.6% of spending on electrical goods. In the Paisley / Renfrew catchment, Braehead is revealed as the most popular destination for all the product categories in 2003, but Paisley is also shown to be performing
Page 1 and 2: Proposed Extensions at Braehead Ret
Page 3 and 4: 1 INTRODUCTION The Proposals 1.1 Br
Page 5 and 6: PROPOSED EXTENSIONS AT 3 ASSESSMENT
Page 13 and 14: PROPOSED EXTENSIONS AT 11 ASSESSMEN
Page 19: PROPOSED EXTENSIONS AT 17 ASSESSMEN
Page 35 and 36: Table 1 Population Estimates - Brae
Page 37 and 38: Table 3 Comparison Expenditure Esti
Page 39 and 40: Table 5 Shopping Patterns in Main C
Page 45 and 46: Table 11 Changes to Glasgow City Ce
Page 47 and 48: Table 13 Estimated Total Turnover a
Page 53 and 54: Table 19 Potential Turnover - B&Q S
Page 57: Table 23 Estimated Turnover of Addi

Assessment of Planning and Retail Issues - Renfrewshire Council

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